Silver vs CPI vs Stock Market

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Phil Ham, Feb 22, 2015.

?

Where are you investing most of your money?

  1. Bullion

    7 vote(s)
    17.1%
  2. US Equity Market

    25 vote(s)
    61.0%
  3. Global Equity Market

    3 vote(s)
    7.3%
  4. Real Estate

    2 vote(s)
    4.9%
  5. Bond Market

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Money Market

    1 vote(s)
    2.4%
  7. Under Pillow

    1 vote(s)
    2.4%
  8. None of the Above

    2 vote(s)
    4.9%
  1. beef1020

    beef1020 Junior Member

    I'm in a pretty similar age range and am much more aggressive with retirement funds. I won't need them for 25-30 years, so as long as the US economy in general keeps doing well then my money is fine, and if it doesn't then retirement is out of the question anyway...
     
    Bman33 likes this.
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  3. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Rules of thumb like this are worth about as much as you pay for them. How much should be in equities depends a lot more than what you have in bonds.

    My only thinking along these lines are equities versus all fixed income assets, like real estate, bonds, inferred value of pensions or annuities, etc. Most people are underinvested in equities when they retire actually. Retirees have an expected lifespan of about 20 years, a very long time if you try to live on cd interest nowadays unless you have a LOT of money.
     
    -jeffB likes this.
  4. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    what type of bonds.
    low risk Treasury bonds .... high yield corporate bonds ... very aggressive junk bonds ?
    The same question with Equities ....

    % doesn't matter. Your level of risk matters and which group of investments you select because of that risk.

    I have high yield stocks, Nasdaq & sp500 indexes, high yield corporate bonds BBB+ or higher then some less aggressive investments.

    Then some nice and shiny silver and gold that I like to look at from time to time which never seems to grow much compared to my other investments.
     
  5. Don P

    Don P Active Member

    Nice.
     
  6. Don P

    Don P Active Member

    It's never too late to sell some off the top, such as taking profits and putting it in cash, like a money market stable fund.

    From what I've been reading though, 2018 will be a good year but most likely not the same gains as 2017; it's beyond 2018 that becomes the scary part!

    We definitely need a healthy pull back though, like even a 5-10% correction to give investors a chance to get back in.

    What's more interesting, in the last minor correction we had in 2016, the amount of gold bullion bought as a panic equaled the amount bought the 2008 DOW Jones crash.... just that little hiccup in 2016. Imagine the price of gold when the next recession hits!
     
    Bman33 likes this.
  7. Don P

    Don P Active Member

    Good points here. You can't sell out of the market and go only into cash at retirement since you still need a large portion of that money to keep up with inflation. If you've created a nice nest egg, you should essentially be able to live off of dividends, social security and pension.
     
  8. Don P

    Don P Active Member

    Gold and Silver help to preserve wealth. I've learned to look at them differently than buying stocks to gain a profit. For example, where will all the Bitcoin profits get invested when they choose to sell----the market, gold, silver? ;)
     
  9. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    All these charts and ideas are very nice, but they are predicated on a fixed place for your money. A flexible approach is to diversify across multiple instruments and be willing to move parts between them as the markets demand. I got out of equities in 2007 because of all the warnings about a collapse. I put most of it in bullion before the 2008 collapse. I sold silver at close to the top but I still have a fair proportion in bullion, not as an investment but as preservation, and am concentrating now on high dividend stocks for income and OTC stocks for speculation and growth over the next 30 years. Who knows where I will have it all in two or three years. Flexibility if the key.
     
  10. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    I know. I always say PM is a storage of wealth. That's exactly how I look at it. I consider it nothing else.

    Of course, I could just store my cash in cash too as a storage of wealth where $1 will always be worth $1. Or I can store it in a savings account at 1.35% or getting into higher return investments.

    But my input was not PM storage of wealth. But the PERCENTAGE of equities versus Bonds. As the % doesn't mean much as you can have low risk and high risk equities and bonds.

    FWIW, I've converted zero of my crypto profit to PMs. PMs are strictly a pretty thing to look at for me and I've been doing it for a while on/off.
     
  11. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    As the new year is upon us, I thought it was a good time to update the various investment categories from last year (2018). It wasn't a good year for most investments. The Dow Jones dropped 5.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 6.2%, the Nasdaq dropped 3.9%, and silver dropped 8.4%. I invest in many categories and lost also in real estate ETF's (about 4% loss) and Euro Pacific funds (about 10% loss). The Euro Pacific funds were especially bad as they struggled also with a strong US dollar. My only positive gains were in the cash, money market, and bond markets. My best performance came from I-bonds that I purchased over a decade ago and they were only about 3.5%. Overall, my rather risky portfolio was down about 6.5%, which was the 5th worst performance in the past 26 years. It was one of the few years that it was safer to have your money under your pillow. The inflation rate was about 2.5% in 2018, which may rise a little depending on the CPI from December. Thus, my total loss is 9.0% (6.5% plus the 2.5%), which doesn't include the capital gains taxes on my non-tax deferred investments.

    Here is the dataset from 1980 to present including a chart:

    upload_2019-1-1_8-11-56.png

    Chart from 1980.

    upload_2019-1-1_8-13-6.png
     
  12. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    Chart from 1990.

    upload_2019-1-1_8-14-23.png
     
  13. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    Chart from 2000 (Go Silver!)

    upload_2019-1-1_8-15-9.png
     
  14. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    Chart from 2010 (Wow Silver!)

    upload_2019-1-1_8-16-6.png
     
  15. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I'm with you. Only you know your situation and your aversion to risk. I only trust myself with my investments and can only blame myself when it goes south or congratulation myself when it goes north. Thankfully, I'm north more than I'm south. Thus, I can look into the mirror and give myself a "thumbs up".
     
  16. RICHARD K

    RICHARD K MISTY & SASHA

    I think silver would have done better if J.P.MORGAN & a few other BANKSTERS stopped the manipulation of PM's. I personally think silver bullion will do well,if the stock market takes a big hit in 2019. It is suspicious why banks are stocking up in PM's lately? ANY IDEA'S?
     
  17. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    None, except that that song has been on non-stop heavy rotation since at least 2011, and probably long before.

    It's easy to feel better about your own money-management missteps if you have some sinister, nebulous THEM to blame for everything. It just isn't very useful.
     
  18. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Way, way longer than 2011. Banks have been "blamed" for why PM has not performed better since the late 70's at least.

    For those who don't know, JP Morgan is the official market maker for silver. As such, they are OBLIGATED to sell silver contracts every month. That is how a market is made. For those who wish to assert a conspiracy, please learn how ALL markets work first, anything, try orange juice, milk, futures of any kind. Do this BEFORE reading PM manipulation garbage on the internet telling half truths to those who do not know any better.

    There are bigger fish than JPM. If the market truly was manipulated, these bigger fish would call JPM's bluff and break the bank, (literally). Think about why they don't collect this easy money if the PM hucksters are right. The hucksters are simply trying to get you emotional to buy their pm/subscription/newsletter. Classic emotional sales manipulation.

    I buy PM because it's pretty, I like owning it, and it gives me a contra-asset class. I prefer to buy when everyone else is ignoring it and premiums and prices are lower. I have been buying quite a bit this year since premiums have come down a lot.

    Get rich slow and boring is my motto.
     
    -jeffB, myownprivy and Kentucky like this.
  19. mikem2000

    mikem2000 Lost Cause

    The only manipulators are the Silver pimps who manipulate the facts so they can separate you from your hard earned fiat. We have that song many times and it is still way off key.
     
  20. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Cash is the investor’s best friend now. CDs are paying decent and Treasuries ain’t half bad either. Stocks are a downpour of falling knives right now.
     
  21. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    Cash may be king now but only for the short run. I'm still with ingenuity of the human race and equities over the long haul.
     
    Santinidollar likes this.
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