Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by thecoinlover, Sep 26, 2011.
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Go for it :devil:
Keep in mind there are 2 silver markets. One that trades paper and the one that trades in the real stuff. Most that deal in the real stuff aren't going to be selling at these prices. It took me several phone calls to find 100 ounces at $36.00 a few months ago which indicated to me their is a true shortage of physical silver.
Better check the Asian markets again--silver is up a few cents
If silver goes down, I'll be looking to buy 90%. If it goes up, I'll be satisfied with what I have, and look out for the occasional numismatic coin that is priced at around melt
What would be a reasonable price for $1k of 90% silver @$25/ounce?
It's below the 200 dma, so there will be two major forces driving down silver prices until probably mid-November:
1) Chinese margin from 10/11 days ago.
2) Speculators who are technically trading silver.
$36 will now be the "ceiling" for silver from a technical standpoint, with the "falling knife" in effect to the downside.
Silver STILL has a $27 intrinsic value, with a $24 minimum production value. With basically every country (the exception being Japan) positioning their reserves in line with "strong dollar" policies, we might even see slight deflationary pressure against the intrinsic value.
With copper prices shocked down and the base metals all on the rise, it's possible that technical money may even choose to trade into base metals, which would put further dampening on the demand for silver.
We may see what appears to be stabilization in silver, but the technical traders will establish downward pressure on the metal until base metals indicate that we're into a period of inflationary growth.
I would say those looking to acquire silver can expect one or two more shocks, with the bottom coming at $26.73. This means there may be some trades that get in below this price, but the $26.73 will be a supporting price. If this is breached, and we see a close below this value, it's possible (though unlikely) that silver will retrace to the $22.85 range.
I would start acquiring at any price below $27. You haven't missed the bottom.
Another thing (edit note add here):
If silver doesn't recover above the $43 range within the next year (40% increase), the parabolic run will actually be technically over. However, if silver is able to recapture $43 around Oct/Nov '12, then 25% per year growth in the metal should continue.
What are the top 10 soverign nations and/or central banks holding silver reserves as a monetary asset (beyond consumer bullion blanks) and what is the amount?
$5 daily silver moves are here. This has been cited as a prerequisite by many people as needing to happen before the next echelon. Can it go back down to $26 or even lower? Sure. However, the precedent for serious moves has been made. Silver has shown us how fast it can move, so there's no reason to think it can only move like that in one direction.
Even if it doesn't maintain it's parabolic rise, as long as it maintains a steady upward trend it's still in a bull market. Even at $30 silver is still on a steeper upward trend than it was prior to June 2010. It would need to drop below $25/oz and to break the upward trend prior to that time.
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