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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1579560, member: 41665&quot;]I didn&#039;t mean to open up the &#039;inflation/deflation debate&#039; (don&#039;t know if that&#039;s a contentious bone here; it is on other sites.) I refer only to &quot;emerging deflationary concerns&quot; and &quot;the first whiff of deflationary fear&quot; NOT as textbook <i>deflation </i>per se, but as the preemptive excuse rationale for MORE PRINTING (monetary inflation via the M3, Fed&#039;s buying crap paper, etc.) </p><p><br /></p><p>There have already been 2 such incidents: the first in 2002, the second in mid-2008... the next perhaps beginning,a China-import for 2013-4? </p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>NYT 12/20/2002:</b> &quot;Greenspan&#039;s Speech Focuses On <i>Deflation</i>, Not Inflation&quot; <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/20/business/greenspan-s-speech-focuses-on-deflation-not-inflation.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/20/business/greenspan-s-speech-focuses-on-deflation-not-inflation.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/20/business/greenspan-s-speech-focuses-on-deflation-not-inflation.html</a></p><p><br /></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>12/29/2008:</b> &quot;Deflation is Here; How Long it Will Last?&quot; <a href="http://wallstreetpit.com/1516-deflation-is-here-how-long-it-will-last/" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://wallstreetpit.com/1516-deflation-is-here-how-long-it-will-last/" rel="nofollow">http://wallstreetpit.com/1516-deflation-is-here-how-long-it-will-last/</a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I suppose the Fed&#039;s management failure is now imminent, within 3 years. No need to ennumerate all possible future Fed actions (any #/combination of which are likely) ; in response to the next deflationary <i>threat </i>or the incidence thereof, MORE INFLATION (depserate attempts at reflating garbage home values, ludicrously priced US stocks) will be the inevitable result. Anticipate the a similar pattern, next go-round:</p><p><br /></p><p>a) &#039;deflationary fear&#039; price shocks to PMs, followed by</p><p>b) price recovery and hikes, <u>after</u> high spec/dumb money investors flee their &#039;paper losses&#039;</p><p><br /></p><p>So I suppose Silver goes to $25. (2013/4?) BEFORE it goes to $80. (c.2017?)[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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