I was referring to not retaliating on the direct personal attacks being slung my way, not my blunt presentation of the facts. I am going to take your jab as just good natured ribbing. Mike
If Silver hit $30 and held for a week, I'd probably trade half my stack for something else. Because I'm guessing gold will try to follow but not nearly in tandem.
China, Greece, EU, IMF, world economies. The debt ratio in this country. Our government over taxing and overspending, then saying they don't have enough $$$. The federal deficit alone should send a chill down your spine. I'm not saying it will happen tomorrow but if I wait until it happens, well, then it's too late for me to react. I've already started and I'll keep stacking as long as we, as a nation, continue to use failing policies. History has shown that gold and silver always due well in inflationary times. The feds policies are like fixing the dyke with your finger when you need a need dyke. How are you determining fair value? Looks like by just using production costs. Fair market value is not determined by production costs. Silver is a commodity and all commodities have large booms and busts. 4 years ago silver saw it's 2nd largest boom, followed by it's 2nd largest bust. I'm preparing for the 3rd.
There are two things that concern me about this line of reasoning. The first is, it really seems to discount the very real possibility the global economy will improve. At the end of the day, economies have a greater chance of improving than deteriorting. It has been happening for years, economies get in trouble, it looks hopeless, people say "it is different this time" but boom, they improve. There are literally hundreds of examples. The second thing, is I cannot make the connect, that a failing economy will result in rising PM prices. Yeah, it happened LAST time, but for the folks who bought into the theory that metals are safe, for the most part took a real lickin' and found out there is nothing safe about metals. I think these folks will be very reluctant to put their faith in metals again, which may very well prevent a metal spike. This is quite evident in the recent stock market troubles. Market tumbled, but metal prices barely budged, in fact slid down a little. I mean this was the event that all the stackers were waiting on, and Nothing!!! It may very well be a tell for the action of metals if things worsen. Mike
I do not see the global economy improving. Period. All commodities do the same thing as global economies, they go up, they go down. Prior to 4 years ago it was up, then it hit it's peak and now it's dropping. Your chart shows the dropping, or the past 4 years. Look at that same chart for 8 years and you will see the upside prior to the down side. Silver didn't start out at $48.00. It started about $5.00. In the 1980's (Hunt Brothers era) silver was around $3.00 and it went over $50.00, then back down and up and down and so on. It will hit it's bottom, level off and then start to rise again. It's just not there yet. Metals are no safer than investing in corn, soybeans, oil, or pork bellies. It's a commodity. Up and down over time with daily changes. In 1929 the folks that bought into the theory that stocks, bonds and other paper assets are safe took such a lickin' they ended up homeless and standing in soup lines. They found out paper assets are not safe. The market didn't tumble, it made a correction of 10% plus. Past history says that following such a correction will be an increase of 25% in the market. As the market continues to go up not every stock will follow suit. There will be winners and there will be losers. You just have to own the right stock at the right time. One can not buy at the low and sell at the high. But you can buy on the dips and sell on the peaks as the ride continues, in either direction. A market correction is not enough to make metals move like you think they should. It just another buying opportunity for a long term holder like me. Just because I stack doesn't mean I have a stackers mentality. As a stacker, I was not waiting for this event but I was expecting it. I stack for a few reasons one of them being, you can't make money out of thin air and that is what our government has done and continues to do. The dominoes will fall but not at the present time. If I thought I could make money by borrowing money (like our government is doing) I would have gone into debt a long, long, long, long, long time ago.
Of course you can, not only does our government do it, so does every other country in the World. Money is just a concept. The only thing you really need for money to be money is a general consensus that it is a unit of exchange. Look at Gold, pretty useless, the only reason Gold became money is everyone agreed it is money. It is also important to understand that 2000 years ago, Gold was not universally accepted as money. There were whole cultures who did not value Gold, so without general acceptance it was not money in those locations. It was only money in places were people agreed it was money. At the end of the day, does it make that much difference if you print useless paper out of thin air, or you dig a useless metal out of brown dirt.?????
I've seen silver drop $3 in one day (and gold drop $150 same day). Then not long later it would gain a little strength. This was early 2013. Forgot the date. But yeah, what we've been seeing lately I wouldn't consider "eye opening".
We'll see... I believe in the old saying to have only about 10% in PM's and think of it as an insurance policy. Great if you don't need it!
We are up about 50 cents already today! Will it hold? Who knows? Maybe it's taking off because the Fed is going to raise interest rates, but who knows?
I honestly think we have seen the bottom. I think what people don't realize is that once the supply/demand balance tips towards demand, the prices will rise much faster than people think. It won't skyrocket - but it will one day just start to pop, and we'll see gold make the move from under $1200 to $1300 inside of a month. Of course it will fluctuate, but the panic buyers and market covers will drive demand even further causing the escalation. PM seems to be getting bought heavily right now and that's with very high premiums. My gut says that by the time we have a new president, gold will be near $1400. Silver towards $18.
I would like to see it go up, but then I think I will kick myself a few times for not buying more when it was around $14...
for what it is worth I bought ~110 oz's between 14.80 and 15.30 thereabout. pretty happy with that except for the premium that I paid was pretty hefty. It seems the dealers have a certain cost associate with this and do not sell for < than their investment. Even at 14.54 is actually 18.00+ per/oz Not such a good deal.
Not much really, I am a fairly quite person. But at $25 the purchase price from Dealers would be a sell price of $21.50 on average from what I have seen. Not really what I would call a huge profit. $30 and up would be better example, then I would say Heck yeah!