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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;NorthKorea, post: 1300241, member: 29643&quot;]Even if you take the most liberal of exposure numbers to PIIGS economies, the US Treasury&#039;s exposure is $641B. That is basically around 3-4%. The exposure of Europe&#039;s top commercial banks to PIIGS would cause a drop in the securities valuation of the financial markets, as well, which would drive up the dollar. The net result of the failure of PIIGS would be about a 5% bump UPWARD in the value of the dollar, which would also be reflected in a 6% drop in dollar denominated prices for PMs.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now, the fun part is the &quot;fear&quot; factor. Fear mongering of the &quot;threat&quot; of this drop will precipitate in increases in valuation of PMs against the dollar, possibly as high as a 20% from pre-threat ($31.50) levels. The 6% drop also accounts from the same levels. This means you could see silver (as an example) go up to $37.80 as the threat of Greece&#039;s failure becomes more eminent, then see a near immediate (over 10 trading days) to $29.61. This is why speculating debt failure using PMs as a hedge generally fails for the vast majority of retail individuals. The CFAs have access to information and charting that indicate the likelihood of the last straw breaking (signal to sell) relative to media coverage of the potential breakage (signal to buy).</p><p><br /></p><p>Edit: Long-term, I&#039;m long PMs, specifically platinum and rhodium. I have current holdings in silver, as well. I hold gold, but I&#039;m actually a net seller relative to silver/platinum/rhodium.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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