Silver is on the move, did we just pass the bottom?

Personally I liked it at 28 or dropping. But only because I just started buying so im still trying to build a stack. This just means I have to pay more lol

 

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Hi Crazy,

I believe it will go up and down. Buying as it climbs can be risky. Still small amounts on a regular basis can off-set any major losses.

 

If you compare the charts of PM and the EUR/USD$ or other currency, you will see such similarity you could almost lay one directly on top of the other. Remember commodities such as silver are priced in USD$. When the possibility of a QE3 was "leaked" on Monday, the USD$ started to slide severely and the price of commodities increased.

Imo, with the uncertainity of EUR/USD$ stability, a person should consider selling portion of PM with each step up in price, as I know no other reasons for the price increase. If the EUR has more problems the USD$ will strengthen and PM will go down again. IMO.

Jim

 

That's what I don't understand. The possibility of quantitative easing has always been on the table. This is nothing new. The message this week was not that it would happen; it was that the Fed would do whatever is necessary.

Given recent economic data, at this point, the Fed apparently feels it is not yet necessary. It seems as though nothing has really changed, maybe just the perception.

 

That's shorter than 3-4 months as you state.

Also, it doesn't seem as though you actually follow the market very closely as evidenced by the quote from your website:

You gauge a brief spike, one month to be exact, as a run on silver. But in your blog, or whatever it is, you fail to mention that the following month, silver dropped back below $29/oz.

Yes there was a spike, to $35.41 towards the end of February. Then in the beginning of March, silver declined, steadily to as low as $26.32 at the end of May.

 

Let the buying frenzy begin! ... Followed by another crash.

Silver's "flight pattern" has been like an albatross lately.

 

All Good Points BUn,

I don't know where you're getting the $35, silver clearly peaked above $37 at the end of February. I say 3-4 months because starting May 11th silver values were in the 27-29 dollar range (ie hovering at $28). If you go by daily closings silver doesn't break $29 on more than 2 days. And that was quite an amazing climb to $29 but it was short lived as the data shows. I agree i'm not being exact here with my observation. But I'm okay with looking at the data and saying it seems more or less flat around $28 from May to June.

I think I clearly cover silver dropped dramatically following the peak, albeit I don't specify the daily performance but that's because it was part of silver's slide downward (which was detailed in what I would call a blog ).

-------------------------------------------------------

Desertgem,

I didn't look at euro/usd pricing this week. I would have assumed the euro and USD would slide evenly considering both entities are facing their own issues.
- A possible QE3 in the US
- Euro zone losing greece, etc.

~JobIII

 

Go back and read post #5, I clearly stated the source of my figures was Kitco.com, and I was looking at the past market performance going back 1 year.

Here's the link to that chart. Just click on the 1Y button, lower right corner and it will bring up the market going back to Sept. 2011.




http://charts.kitco.com/KitcoCharts...407_iCharts_silver_chart&utm_campaign=iCharts

 

The recent high was $37 and change when Ron Paul held up the silver coin to Bernanke and incited a smackdown. I don't know where $35 comes into play, but it has been higher in recent months. $30 is still cheap to me, but I'm not buying as much as I did at $27 either. With nearly every central bank in the world devaluing their currency (Russia is the notable exception here with the best positive real interest rates of anyone) I will not be selling anytime soon. My first sell target has always been $70/oz for silver since the next fibonacci resistance level above $50 is $75, but if $75 doesn't hold it could very well break to the next level well over $100/oz. It will be a hard fought battle to break $50 because after that there really is no resistance as everybody looking to get out will do so prior to it breaking $50. Even if it does get to triple digits I will be holding the large majority of my stack. The higher it goes the more people will realize what is going on and why they need metals. I anticipate a virtuous cycle for metals once that occurs. We may or may not have seen the bottom, the fiscal cliff coming up as well as potential escalation with Iran could provide a lot of downward pressure, but I still think it's a great time to buy.

 

The $35, is $35.41 where silver hit towards the end of February this year.

The OP wants people to believe that silver is on the move, and only sites what happened up to the end of February. However, he fails to mention that silver steadily declined to where it was hovering around $28 an ounce most of the past month.

 

They don't call silver the devil's metal for nothing. If the DOW ever moved like silver does people would be pulling their hair out. I agree with your point. This rally has only been $2/oz. Small potatoes compared to what silver has done in the past. This could be the start of a big rally though if the Fed, the ECB, and the PBOC all print billions simultaneously. The Fed has stated QE3 could be open ended at $75 billion each month which would basically mean perpetual inflation until they deem it's too high. Ultimately inflation has to happen or banks will go insolvent as asset prices on their balance sheets plunge, but since price discovery in metals is still determined by paper contracts I think we could still see $20 silver until the physical market takes over price discovery.

 

I have a feeling silver is getting ready to make a run, at least till November. It will make a major move after the elections, up or down depends on the results.

JMO, Elapid---<

 

BUn,

Did you not read the second paragraph of the post? How much did I need to harp on silver's decline to give the decline justice in your 's

This is exactly what I'm thinking. I FEEL like the :devil: metal may be more active over the next months.

~JobIII​

 

I think that there is a another chance that silver could go back down and retest the $26 support level. Just my opinion.

 

Is there a time frame associatiated with your prognostication? ...next week?

 

Between the beginning of next week and the end of 2012 for the time being.

 

LOL...an adjustable prognostication! :too-cool-for:

 

Not really "adjustable" since it is part of a bigger prediction that I made on another gold and silver board that spans a longer time frame. The following web link is my complete prediction on silver and why I saying what I am saying:

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthr...ver-(no-50-silver-before-2015)-and-here-s-why

It is just a prediction on the internet and I could be right but then again I could be wrong. We will have to see how things play out.

 

$40.00 an ounce is this year target.

 

A thoughtful analysis...Ms. Downer. :kewl: