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Message:: [QUOTE="GoldFinger1969, post: 26615321, member: 73489"]Here's the summary of the BTIG Silver Report, plus the entire PDF.  I have highlighted key points: It's Never Different Parabolic Advance in Precious Metals Likely Nearing a Peak WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Precious metals have gone parabolic. There is no other way to put it. While there may be solid fundamental reasons for these moves, and we have heard 'it's different this time', at some point the current price reflects all of that good news. Parabolas only end one way, with an equal and opposite downside reaction. They do not correct through time. While we have called several tactical topsin metals this year with various success, in hindsight just sticking with the structural uptrend was the easier play. With that said, the moves we have witnessed over the last few weeks are historic, and suggest we are in a final blowoff stage. For those that have enjoyed the run we would certainly take some precautions. Forthose looking for tactical trades, we think there will be significant downside from current levels over the coming weeks. As far as the equity market goes, we will have more to say in the coming days but overall we don't see any fat pitches right now. We continue to think sentiment is complacent which leaves stocks vulnerable heading into January, but until we see some actual sell pressure it's hard to act on sentiment alone. ■ Silver - It's Never Different. Silver is ~89% above its 200 DMA. Outside of the 'Hunt Brothers' squeeze in 1979, every time Silver has been 60% above its 200 DMA it has been meaningfully lower 20, 30 and 40 days later. While the fundamental story might be different this time, the 174% YTD gain has likely priced in much of that good news. ■ The average 40-day return following such a spread is -12%, and -23% excluding 1979. Yes in 1979 it did go more than 200% above its 200 DMA. However, from its peak in January 1980 to May 1980, it fell -78%. In other words,the more extreme the upside is in a parabolic move, the more extreme the equal and opposite reaction is. ■ Even a pullback to the 20 DMA (normal, healthy) would represent a -20% decline. We suspect a pullback to the 50 DMA (55.40) is highly likely in the coming 1-2 months. That would represent a -25-30% pullback depending on the timing. ■ Historic ETF Volume. Friday the SLV traded $9.6bn in notional dollar volume. That is the second-highest in its history behind May 2011, just after the final peak. That is clear evidence of a blowoff. ■ A Rare 10% Daily Gain. Silver was up over 10% on Friday, one of the largest single day gains ever. The last time it gained 10% into a multi-month high was in 1987. It marked the peak and fell -25% over the next few weeks. ■ Largest Weekly Gain in 45yrs. 18% gain last week, the largest one week gain in 45- years. The four weeks prior saw gains of +12.95%, +3.26%, +6.2%, +8.39%. There have only been three down weeks since mid-August. That is a parabolic advance. ■ Miners Lagging Materially. Ratio ofsilver minersto the metal peaked in September. In 2010 and 2020, the ratio peaked ahead of the metal itself by several months. Yet another warning sign the advance is mature. ■ Monthly RSI 91, only higher into the final peak of the Hunt Brothers squeeze. ■ Platinum Historic Run. The 10-day rate-of-change is 44%. The prior record was 23% coming out of Covid. It's 70% above its 200 DMA, the widest spread on record. Nothing comes close to the run we have just seen.[/QUOTE]

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