Silver Is On A Tear Today

According to this article from a few years back (based on a 2020 survey), about 16 percent of Americans own gold or silver, or both (and the vast majority probably in tiny amounts, mainly jewelry). This is what I meant when I said that people at the margins of society move the price. So, it would be correct to say gold and silver are unimportant or not at all relevant to the vast majority of Americans (well, other than maybe some industrial applications we are oblivious to). We can extend this to much of the world.

There is also evidence Chinese investors have played a role in the recent silver price spike. But hold on. Wasn't silver as an investment limited to the U.S., Europe, and South Asia, according to analysts like Jeffrey Christian (who I respect)? Well, it seems new investment vehicles are drawing in investors from all over the world, based on frictionless, instantaneous digital trading. Why bother stacking bars when you can flip stocks (or futures, in the case of China) with a few clicks? Yes, this is a relatively small number of people, but again it's always people at the margins of society who move the markets (always a minority). Silver and gold are now globalized (increasingly). The old models of the pre-digital world need to be upgraded.

 

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The main thing I can comment on is the fact I have been there many times over decades. I do not ever recall seeing anyone in Thailand wearing silver jewelry except for children and westerners.

The jewelry issue misses the main point though. While some might be in jewelry form, the Thai's aren't really buying jewelry, they are buying gold. Every single family I know of there has family gold, sometimes in the form of jewelry other times bars. Its like most people in the US has a 401k or an IRA, they have gold. Its just what it is. The point was investment money went into this and land instead of stocks and bonds for the vast majority of Thai people. That is what is different between the two metals there. They might have silver as a functional item but not as an investment item. There are many silver shops in Thailand, much of it for the export market. Thailand has historically been a large exporter of silver items and jewelry.

Btw, I mentioned land. Land is HORRIBLY expensive there, much more so than the US. The price of a house lot in Chiang Mai is way higher than almost anywhere in the US, and Bangkok is higher. As a comparison, a .4 acre lot, (one Rai) in Chiang Mai is about $500,000 on average last I looked. Land is where most Thai's keep their "big money". Even rice paddies far from cities are more expense than farmland in Iowa.

 

Yes, you have been there and are married to a Thai woman, whereas I have never been to Thailand, so your perspective is worthwhile. Taking information from the internet has limits, but I think the future trends look promising for silver in other parts of the world. Think of Bitcoin. People who went against the grain back in 2013 and bought and held it made some bank. There were no cultural traditions supporting it really. You had to be a rebel and be laughed at. Well, it seems the modern digital traders of Thailand and other Asian countries (we know China is included) are likely to rebel against traditions and invest in silver, copper, or toilet paper if it can make them money. Sure, it may not be a thing now to invest by clicking a mouse or button*, but this can only grow in time as these nations build their middle classes. Tradition is important but people are smart and will figure out where profits can be made in a digital, globalized economy.

*Crypto trading is actually popular in Thailand, and silver and other foreign ETFs are available to Thais through regulated brokerages.

 

Silver and gold are both up this morning. You just can’t keep them down.

 

"They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan

 

I laughed with Bozo as I was on his TV show. I was a Cub Scout when that took place. It’s a fond memory.

 

Almost at $78 today. Gold is very close to $5000. Lately they get there are fall back from sellers. Sooner or later the sellers will run out of metal and then it will take off once again. Maybe the sellers run out when supplies for manufacturing is lower than normal. Stand back if that happens.

 

So...

China restricted silver exports effective Jan 1.

China is largely shut down this week for the New Year holiday.

Doesn't it seem like that would produce a temporary drop in global demand (China not buying stuff) without any corresponding drop in supply (since China wasn't shipping the stuff out anyhow)? If so, I'd expect depressed prices this week. Right?

 

Thailand is one of my favorite countries. Been there many times on bidness. Food is excellent, people are super, terrain is gorgeous.

I kinda go for the gold side for bullion. Always have.

 

Very much agreed.
In my bidness travels over the last 45 years, what are today considered Global South countries enjoyed their gold… tangible savings. The Global North countries had more Fiat and Credit facilities for transactions and wealth accumulation. Different traditions. As an example, Been to China 40 or 50 times over that timespan (yeah was there before credit cards when you literally carried a suit case of cash to pay hotel bills, restaurants, drivers, etc.). Their whole culture is imbued with gold.
I felt the same in Thailand, and several other Global South cultures. I feel the Global North cultures seem myopic to this.

 

Dropping a little in overseas trading but still above $77.00.

 

So I have a question for all you fellows? Tell me what is known about the US gold stock? How much do they say they have? what are they doing with it? Just making money holding against dollar? Tell me all that you know I am interested.

 

Allegedly 261 million ounces. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Ye of little faith

 

Some months ago there was supposed to be an audit but it just vanished from the news cycle. Maybe along with the gold.

 

Gold is down but silver it up, just barely.