Biggest reason for precious metal surges is simple. The USA is in debt over 39T$. To most, its a number, but remember what happened in Zimbabwe, all Mugabes fault. But also Weimar Germany, post WW1 Austria-Hungary, caused by reparations forced upon Central Powers. We all know how that ended....WW2. Now, wisedom has set in, the world has lost faith in FIAT paper money, BITCOIN, and are returning to the only real money/ precious metals. Germany, China are buying up gold, silver, platinum, while Putin is selling his to finance his crazy war. Meanwhile US is going ever deeper into the debt abyss.
Ran across recent articles about the US's top export is GOLD. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrob...-top-us-export-an-unprecedented-second-month/ or https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/60952/gold-tops-us-exports-as-dollar-falls excerpt: Forbes analyst Ken Roberts described the trend as “not good news”. The surge in gold shipments out of the US, he said, does not reflect industrial productivity but instead signals rising demand for safe‑haven assets amid uncertainty (of US policies).
Agreed and you make some excellent points and part of what you posted has come to fruition and that's why we saw a tripling in silver in 2025/2026. The problem is....we don't know at what point it might reverse and stockpiles come out. If the Chinese believe that solar is saturated and they won't subsidize their home producers any longer, there goes a few hundred million of ounces of demand. Or other big actors could sell. You want to be long something where it is rising or flat with a big seller...like gold, where Russia has been selling $200 MM of gold every day for the last 3 years. It's easy to rise when you have big buyers and no sellers. But what happens if you have buyers AND sellers....or even just sellers and not many buyers ?
Silver and PM's aren't going up for those reasons. We're not anywhere near Zimbabwe, whose GDP barely exceeds that of Vermont, the smallest state GDP at about $50 billion. It took 30 years for Greece's socialist and monetary stupidity to blow up. Anybody who thinks they'll be around for an implosion in the United States like that had better be a CoinTalk member who is short of their 5th birthday. What is more likely is that AI and other technological changes will drive the U.S. economy to higher levels of nominal and real GDP, allowing us to burn off the debt much as happend after WW II. That was also the beginning of the 35-year bear market in bonds, for those of you who follow stuff like that. 90% of all transactions involve the dollar. Anybody who wants Treasuries or American stocks has to have dollars. You want to buy real estate in the U.S. you need dollars. If you want to trust the Communist Chinese like Mark Mobius did, be my guest. Ditto Brazil....South Africa....or Russia. Like the Eagles said.....you can check in anytime you like...but you can NEVER leave.