Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1651215, member: 41665&quot;]No. The long-term timespan of 28-49 years is approriate to the adult lifespan/horizon of an active US investor. For future outlook, the <i>most recent previous</i> ~30year period (1983-2013) is more germane than any other (e.g. 1953-83, 1933-53, 1903-33 etc.) Since the USD$ has only floated since 1973 I&#039;d also <i>discount </i>any other comparison, say, to periods/currencies backed by PMs (apples-to-oranges.) The 200-year average for the gold to silver ratio might be ~37 to 1, but that&#039;s almost totally irrelevant to living investors now. </p><p><br /></p><p>Momentary and freak price dips/spikes excepted, I reject your assumed GSR reversion-to-mean of 15-20 Ag/ozt to 1 Au (400 year historical level). <i>If </i>something like that should happen (imagine Silver hits $120. when Gold is at $2,400. = GSR 20 in 2015) man should SELL Silver fast: that bell has rung!</p><p><br /></p><p>As for my &quot;baseline,&quot; the current GSR is <i>approximate </i>to the modern historical avg, not wildly askew. For the last 45 years, POG $1650 ÷ POS $31 = 53.22, almost spot on the GSR 45-year average. More importantly, the GSR charts below show great fluctuations (100&gt;20) and volatility. So I wouldn&#039;t get too excited about GSR 35 nor GSR 70, either way. </p><p><br /></p><p>It&#039;s true Silver has appreciated recently and I can envision Silver appreciating more (as I wrote &quot;I&#039;m not bearish on Ag&quot;) but that&#039;s no reason to overweight Ag. Why? Based on the last decade&#039;s data, <b>Silver is a much riskier PM (POS has ~2x the volatility of POG.) </b>So neither of these qualifications/clarifications mean Silver is <i>undervalued </i>(to me) nor am I &quot;undervaluing&quot; that PM. Rather, Ag risk profile signals CAUTION! </p><p><br /></p><p>It&#039;s totally reckless for retail noobs to try and trade the GSR. Don&#039;t bother/try. Flipping bullion in the short term is a fool&#039;s errand with almost certain loss. Particularly in periods when paper currencies become unstable, retail investors can easily get crushed in poorly understood (market-timing) arbitrage gambles. Caveat emptor. </p><p><br /></p><p>otoh - and because there are <i>always </i>exceptions - extraordinary bell-ringing moments can be the best time to buy/sell whatever&#039;s CHEAP-CHEAP/pricey <i>in moderation</i>. An historical 200yr LOW for Rhodium (in Au/ozt) is one such opportunity. So if you don&#039;t hold <i>any </i>Rh... consider a 3-5% allocation. That&#039;s just my two cents. </p><p>[ATTACH]240775.vB[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Goldprice.org&#039;s 1975-2013 GSR chart:</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=CONFIG]240730[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p>Matthew Green&#039;s crude GSR chart, 1900-1911</p><p>[ATTACH=CONFIG]240734[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p>Bullionvault.com&#039;s 1882-2012 GSR chart</p><p>[ATTACH=CONFIG]240742[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p>I&#039;d never seen Palmer&#039;s Silver Price Chart, 1900-1982 before:</p><p>[ATTACH=CONFIG]240755[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in