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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Rono, post: 1139302, member: 6492&quot;]Howdy all and welcome passantgardant,</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Can&#039;t say I disagree with any of your arguements.&nbsp; My BA&#039;s in Econ and I&#039;ve been a long range planner for decades.&nbsp;&nbsp; I see the same things you and many others are seeing.&nbsp; I&#039;m not sure if you&#039;ve seen my other posties, but I see the tightrope the Fed is walking as being $110 T in Unfunded Liabilities with no combination of benefit reductions (other than outright repudiation and default) and tax increases, that can pay this tab.&nbsp;&nbsp; That leaves them no choice but monetization.&nbsp; I&#039;ve read an estimate that they have to HALVE the value of the dollar over the next 10 years just to be able to sniff solving this problem.&nbsp; &nbsp; Yet, with real unemployment (shadowstats) is running about 22% and real inflation is about 9% they have no choice but to pump as much money into the economy as needed to keep it from devolving into an Egypt/Libyan debacle that they will risk hyperinflation and hope they don&#039;t get it.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Will they be successful or lose or muddle along?&nbsp;&nbsp; Geez, I don&#039;t know.&nbsp; I&#039;m thinking right now that it&#039;s about 20% chance we&#039;ll see some sort of financial meltdown, 20% they&#039;ll actually pull it off and 60% that we&#039;ll muddle along kicking the can down the road with nasty Austerity.&nbsp;&nbsp; Had a friend coin that term for a combination of stagflation - high unemployment and high inflation - without any growth.&nbsp; Should this happen, the austerity could last for 10 years or so.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Because these things are not within my control and I really don&#039;t know, the best I can do is prepare.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I try to use risk analysis when making key decions.&nbsp; Develop a cost/reward/yes/no comparison.&nbsp; Anyway, in this case, the costs of a Meltdown/hyperinflation scenario is so enormous, that even with only a 20% chance (my figure), I have no alternative but to prepare.&nbsp; The consequences of being unprepared are so dire to do otherwise.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>peace,</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>rono[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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