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<p>[QUOTE="Clawcoins, post: 3348497, member: 77814"][USER=99642]@Hookman[/USER]</p><p><br /></p><p>In another thread you asked about the Velocity of Stock prices .. or something like that of what I mentioned.</p><p><br /></p><p>That comes into play in when to sell a stock, if you are working on a Short Term buy/sell cycle. Though within Wash Sale Rules which may deviate one’s Buy/Sell Strategy.</p><p><br /></p><p>But there is no “easy” answer to this. One must:</p><p><br /></p><p>(a) Track Institutional Investments, increase exposure (they’re buying more). This decreases the stock qty in the open market. Though, when pushed into Mutual Funds anytime there is a market selloff, they sell off too. Thus you have to take that into account</p><p>(b) Track the number of days the stock is UP when the market is DOWN; even opposite the Institutional Exposure.</p><p>(c) Track competition stock prices, how much stock is in the marketplace by comparison, and their movement against the stock and the market.</p><p>(d) And historical RunUps of stock price</p><p>(e) Exposure and Push of the General Economy</p><p>(f) Company portfolio increases (M&As, new product, expansions, etc).</p><p>(g) Keep in mind Quarterly Release RunUPs in calculations.</p><p><br /></p><p>One easy to see example is here:</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]886667[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p>From mid August to Sept was a Large RunUp (look at the volumes too). Over Buy easily, then it settled, then another super RunUp. This raised Red Flags in my spreadsheets to a SELL across the board for profit taking. Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding. Just before the Sell Off.</p><p><br /></p><p>Pay note to the bar graphs on the bottom of Buy/Sell volumes. That helps indicate the over buy scenario along with the price. A large run up in stock price with very little volume is suspicious for price stability .. which as noted then crashed. Standard thing to watch all the live long day as the saying goes ....</p><p><br /></p><p>Thus Price Volatility after Momentum Buying pushed the stock price too high for it's underlying stock / volume / price support.</p><p><br /></p><p>But sell scenarios are great. If you are in a stock for the long run you now have to try and fortune tell of how long the crash will be, based upon your BuyIn basis. Because you have to wait 30 days to reenter otherwise you get hit with a Wash Sale on your taxes and all was done for naught.</p><p><br /></p><p>I learned that lesson a few years ago .. I wasn't watching the stock related tax rules changes close enough. Also the FIFO Stock Rule changed my methods too. Instead of One brokerage account, I now have at least 4 to manage Stock selection via a different method.</p><p><br /></p><p>you can do the same analysis of PMs, but based on different identifiers. One can be pretty accurate too. It just takes a lot of time to track and develop correlated analysis. Though PMs have several streams of unrelated correlated analysis (multiple analysis price theories that are uncorrelated to each other) making it a bit more difficult as PMs do not generate revenue.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Clawcoins, post: 3348497, member: 77814"][USER=99642]@Hookman[/USER] In another thread you asked about the Velocity of Stock prices .. or something like that of what I mentioned. That comes into play in when to sell a stock, if you are working on a Short Term buy/sell cycle. Though within Wash Sale Rules which may deviate one’s Buy/Sell Strategy. But there is no “easy” answer to this. One must: (a) Track Institutional Investments, increase exposure (they’re buying more). This decreases the stock qty in the open market. Though, when pushed into Mutual Funds anytime there is a market selloff, they sell off too. Thus you have to take that into account (b) Track the number of days the stock is UP when the market is DOWN; even opposite the Institutional Exposure. (c) Track competition stock prices, how much stock is in the marketplace by comparison, and their movement against the stock and the market. (d) And historical RunUps of stock price (e) Exposure and Push of the General Economy (f) Company portfolio increases (M&As, new product, expansions, etc). (g) Keep in mind Quarterly Release RunUPs in calculations. One easy to see example is here: [ATTACH=full]886667[/ATTACH] From mid August to Sept was a Large RunUp (look at the volumes too). Over Buy easily, then it settled, then another super RunUp. This raised Red Flags in my spreadsheets to a SELL across the board for profit taking. Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding. Just before the Sell Off. Pay note to the bar graphs on the bottom of Buy/Sell volumes. That helps indicate the over buy scenario along with the price. A large run up in stock price with very little volume is suspicious for price stability .. which as noted then crashed. Standard thing to watch all the live long day as the saying goes .... Thus Price Volatility after Momentum Buying pushed the stock price too high for it's underlying stock / volume / price support. But sell scenarios are great. If you are in a stock for the long run you now have to try and fortune tell of how long the crash will be, based upon your BuyIn basis. Because you have to wait 30 days to reenter otherwise you get hit with a Wash Sale on your taxes and all was done for naught. I learned that lesson a few years ago .. I wasn't watching the stock related tax rules changes close enough. Also the FIFO Stock Rule changed my methods too. Instead of One brokerage account, I now have at least 4 to manage Stock selection via a different method. you can do the same analysis of PMs, but based on different identifiers. One can be pretty accurate too. It just takes a lot of time to track and develop correlated analysis. Though PMs have several streams of unrelated correlated analysis (multiple analysis price theories that are uncorrelated to each other) making it a bit more difficult as PMs do not generate revenue.[/QUOTE]
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