Silver getting crushed today

economy stuff ....
auto loans delinquency rate highest since 2009ish
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/auto-loan-delinquencies-highest-since-170212477.html


and I know non-asset based loan delinquency has also been on the rise for the last 1-1/2 years.

large appliance imports dropping like a rock. except alcohol, I guess ppl put that as a priority expense? ==> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...as-american-whiskey-and-appliances-2019-02-12

the problem with tariffs is you may create a rise in national bound manufacturing. But you also have a rise in prices. And once those tariffs stop; what happens when the price inequality bears fruit again?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/b...more-expensive-after-trump-tariffs-2018-11-14

should be interesting time coming at some point and how it impacts PMs.

 

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hmm .. I owned Johnson & Johnson back in 1980. I sold it to buy a saxophone.
Wish I still had it. Gonna start buying it again for my kids in my Roth Acct ...

hmm .. does not include reinvesting dividends

because it's M&A season again ...


is this true about Silver back then .. $49.45 ? yikes

google:


...ooh, that was the Hunt Brother's thing ...

I remember buying my high school ring though it was gold .. and expensive (still have it lurking around).

 

US National Debt is now above $22 Trillion. Rising over $1 Trillion in 11 months. Which equates to about $1 Billion daily in Finance costs. whichs puts us over 75% idn Debt-to-GDP ratio. Hey, Japan is about 240% of debt/GDP ratio.
https://www.pgpf.org/press-release/...688&esid=781a3b34-f72e-e911-940f-0050568d4238


so ... PMs may hold steady for now and continue rise in the long term.
until some new PM branches are found digging and ppl turn in their household PMs for cash which will pop the price due to a large influx of supply. Then the Sun will explode making all PMs dust again ... and thus the circle of PMs starts again ...

 

Ha! I just like getting them done and over with.
my refund is smaller this year.
I also did not change any payroll deductions/exemptions to compensate.
Since I never roll up enough for itemization, nothing really matters. I just have to sock away as much savings / investments etc as possible and not worry about it.

Though that stupid interest income 1099-INTs are starting to grab at it. This is something we shouldn't get taxed on. I'll be shifting those funds to my Roth to get those gains tax free (until the gov't changes their mind on those shelters).

 

@ Clawcoins: "In 1979, the price for silver jumped from about $6 per troy ounce to a record high of $49.45 per troy ounce (on January 18, 1980), which represents an increase of 724%." Mr. Google is wrong. Silver never got to $49.45/oz in 1979 or 1980. "Good Delivery Bars" got to $49.45, silver itself, only somewhere around $35-$40. A "Good Delivery Bar" [GDB] is a pure [999.5+] 1000oz [+ or - a few percent] ingot, certified by a refiner who has been approved by the commodity exchange [Engelhard, J&M, etc.]. Only a tiny percentage of the world's silver supply is in GDBs, so the Hunt brothers thought they could corner the market, just like a stock squeeze manipulation. It also helped that one major refiner was on strike, and the other approved refiners switched to only refining for their own account; that is, they would no longer refine your silver into a GDB for a small fee, they only refined silver that they themselves owned. If you can buy at $40 and sell at $49, why refine anyone else's silver? [$1000 face bags of junk halves and quarters were available in a virtually unlimited supply at about a 10 - 20% discount from GDBs]. It worked for the Hunts for a while. They had manipulated within the exchange rules running up the price. They overlooked one thing: one of the exchange rules was "we can change the rules anytime we want to." They did, and the price of GDBs [and junk silver, too] started dropping fast.

 

You seem to be disagreeing about the definition of "silver price".

As I understand it, the spot price of silver (or anything else) is mostly driven and set by paper contracts, and the only physical delivery such a contract can demand is the Good Delivery Bar. Mr. Google is accurately reporting the closing spot price on that date.

If buy and sell prices at your local shop are higher or lower than the spot price, that may reflect important information about the market, but it doesn't mean the spot price is wrong.

Edit: according to the first site I found with historical data, that $49.45 closing price was on a Friday. The next Monday, it closed at $49; that Tuesday, it closed at $41.55. I'm glad I wasn't frantically buying up silver at a coin show that weekend...

 

hmmm ... what does


have to do with Silver?

Oooh ... Good Delivery Bar, not Mr. Good Bar.
got it !!

 

Yeah, isn't that just like the gov't or exchange to change stuff any time they want.

 

Commodity exchanges do NOT trade silver. They trade silver Good Delivery Bars - GDBs. At the time they also traded bags of $1000 face junk silver. Still not silver per se. The only reason the commodity exchange price of GDBs got to $49+/oz was that there was a short squeeze on GDBs, similar to what Jay Gould and such did manipulating stocks back in the nineteenth century. Just like there were only so many shares of a given stock to go around, there was only so much silver in the form of GDBs, so GDBs could be short squeezed. [The refiners were either on strike, or refusing to refine third party owned silver, so there was virtually no way to meaningfully add to the supply of GDBs.] There was a huge supply of junk silver, so there was no short squeeze on junk silver, and even the commodity exchange price of junk silver generally ran about 80 - 85% of GDBs.. I would submit that junk silver was a more realistic price than the GDB price. It was also about the price you could buy or sell silver for just about anyplace other than the rigged GDB price on the commodity exchanges. I was there in '79. I traded on the exchanges, I sold junk silver at coin stores. I even once "took delivery" of a GDB just for the hell of it. There is no perfect definition of the price of silver; just better and worse ones. I think the junk silver price was clearly a "better" price in 1979.

 

Here is my ? Say over the next 3 months silver should go to 28 - 30 an ounce. You said to your self My sell price of holdings is over $27.50 you sell @ $30.00 all your silver is gone. Then over time a few months silver went to $50. or more. How do you make yourself feel better?

 

back when silver spiked I didn't sell any of my silver.
A buddy of mine asked me why I didn't.
My reply was silver/gold is a fixed basis of my portfolio. If I sold my PMs then what do I do with the cash .. buy more PMs ? Why not just keep them.

looking back though, I should have sold my PMs.
oh well.

The current reason I sold my ASE Congrats in the fall of 2017 .. not going to make that mistake again on a large windfall profit. Too much feeding frenzy that are short lived to not take advantage of.

Once you cash out, you're cashed out and should be happy.

 

To me its more like lets see what tomorrow brings first, maybe I can get more. A month later what???? It is at 13.00 OH NO !! I could have made $2.35 cents Kick myself Kick myself.

 

You're right. But stop kicking yourself and start writing down stuff that you see.

For instance,
1 - those ASE Congrats were what I call a "stupid spike" where due to an emotional drive, low supply, makes the price spike to "stupid" heights. That's a "cash out NOW" scenario.

Gasoline, as an example, prices spike for a few reasons both real and unreal:
1 - a distribution center or refining location has to shut down. Local, or regional or more prices can spike quite quickly. Of course, Irrelevant if there are enough stored supplies to cover any theoretical shortfalls.
2 - a potential storm in the gulf of mexico that could force oil platforms to shut down. Price spike even if the storm is far away, and ends up not even going close to the Gulf. A perceived threat in this case.
3 - global regional issues, such as say a problem in the middle east which could technically disrupt some global oil shipments can cause an immediate gasoline price spike.

I review some stock info in a previous post, a couple pages back.

now PMs are very similar though different.
For instance back in 2017 there was a threat of Mexico being blockaded tariff-wise. Mexico is the US's main supplier of mined silver. Thus silver spiked the equivalent potential tariff price. I don't believe it affected Gold much if at all.

I had some equations for PMs, several correlated and uncorrelated algorthyms. crazy.

Each day if you list out on a spreadsheet 3 things that affected +/- silver, or gold, a particular stock, the stock market itself, or anything else where price fluctuates, over time you can start seeing patterns on your spreadsheet. certain items can be regulars, which give a large, consistent price impact. others float in and out of the list with smaller impacts, or float in and out and have a large impact.

you can create your own list of impacts. you'll learn a lot, and you'll learn to be more unbiased as your stack up impact items.

So when prices rise, you can when it starts falling, know when to sell when you get 3 large impact items.
So if silver maxxes out at 50, you can feel good to sell slightly on the backside at 45-48. Or even sell before it maxxes out ... and if you're lucky at the very top when you get 3 large impact SELL items.

Plus, what are you going to do if you sell early. be glad that you profited. You can't worry by doing something too soon or too late. Don't let "emotions" control you NOT selling when your impact items say sell or buy. As once it is sold or bought, then it's sold or bought .. what 'cha gonna do?

I used to day trade (not a real day trader per IRS rules). You buy/sell in minutes, or hours or days on targeted price fluctuations. You learn to see impact items and react to them to cash out quickly or buy in quickly .. or wait. Buy/sell & learn, and move on ...

 

wow, futures are shooting to the moon along with gold and silver


I decided to inject the last 20% of my market investment cash reserves into the market. This is from when I pulled out all my general investments into cash last fall/winter. At least last night I decided that .. who knows, may change my mind come Monday. All my other investments are now wash sale safe, so a low risk (tax-wise) move.

It's funny. When the market was going down all the investment houses/ppl said to hold steady and don't bolt. Keep your money in. Of course, then I saw last week they started saying that ppl lost out from the big January Run UP. Well .. duh, you guys told everyone to stay in the down market so how can ppl get back IN the market when they told them to never get out of the market?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...yre-out-of-luck-says-goldman-sachs-2019-02-05

Gee thanks Goldman. But didn't you tell us not to sell and to hold as the market will bounce back? Guess we're outta luck now ...

I'm waiting a tad until I sell some more silver. It just doesn't move like a good stock/index fund (nor income/high interest account). I'm keeping all my "collector" silver/gold but divesting the "stack" stuff.

don't know if anyone noticed.
Palladium has now risen and stayed above gold now for a while ...


I guess a big kuddos goes to Volkswagon for their efforts into reducing platinum use in diesel systems.

 

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And they think they are so clever ay...lol

 

Silver Per Oz @ 9:57 CST
15.89

Technical Analysis widget (tradingview) advises Strong Buy

 

some amazing Silver prices so far


Can it go higher ??
with the continuous turmoil it certain possibly could. The less turmoil the more it will come down.


a few years ago Gold overtook Platinum to my dismay
but then historically it as more than Platinum except in 2000s and the mid 80s.


but now Palladium as overtaken Platinum (a long time ago) and has stayed above Gold


on another note, one of the strategies I do with stocks is price/management bounce. That is when a stock price deteriorates along with Mgt. Then Mgt starts reinventing the company with new (profitable) revenue streams\concepts. One such one that I got into was Zillow (real estate). Anywho .. today it popped from all the good news from strategic changes ... cha-ching !! but of course the loss, and the CEO left .. so time to sell before it's to late. LOL


this versus a company (like GPRO below) that just plain has bad mgt. Great IPO ideas but lack vision to watch competitors come in and eat their lunch, literally, and never change. The list is heavy for this in the tech and other industries (Palm, Nokia, Motorola, etc). Slow to identify new industry trends believing their are just a "fad", etc etc

 

I know some of you are interested in stock stuff ... so I'd thought I'd show this:

When the price started going horizontal it could have signified a short term buying frenzy has ended. Then a slight downwards trending which, if picked up momentum would be the end of the "buying spike". So 42 was my sell red flag. But some positive volumes is slowly raising up the price which is good for price stability. Of course, the next 3 days will be telling on if it's a new price floor for future prospective gigantic future revenue gains or not ... but so far today it's up $7.44/share. My finger is on the sell button though ready to go and get the windfall profits from "positive news".

 

15.95... so takem ahead two cars