Silver getting crushed today

One does not have to defend, re-butt, or concede anything about a belief. A belief is just that. And one does not carry on a discussion in accordance with what someone else decides
is or isn't germaine to the discussion. But nice try Mike.

So, lets have another dance anyway. How many times have we done this?

Whose money it is is quite germaine to the conversation. I buy what I like and I don't buy what I hate and don't trust-the stock market. Of course you already know all this don't you Mike?

As for my belief in cycles. What about it? Yes I hope to buy low "strength becomes weakness" and sell higher "weakness becomes strength." It's normal greed or human nature. Yes, I'm sure I'm not conforming to guru priesthood standards of greed as measured by ROI from the dow, and graphs as wallpaper. So what? It's my money. And I'm also not guru enough to know when the next spike might come around but guess what, neither do you or anyone else despite the make-believe. This isn't about the optical illusion of the sun rising in the east and setting in the west every day for the last 10 million years. Market cycles cannot be linear. They would be exploited and defeated. And political, economic and financial environments are forever changing which changes the timing. That's why: "I believe in cycles" and "strength becomes weakness" "weakness becomes strength" are pretty general statements don't you think? That's all they can be. Welcome back Mike. As you can see some things DO stay the same.

 

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Everything else being equal...gold moves inversely to its denominated currency.

 

And yet it's the one tool that we'll all use, sooner or later -- unless we spend everything before we go.

 

Of course one does not HAVE to defend their point but I certainly would. I mean why say it if you are not willing to back it up. It is a discussion forum. I really don't get how people can make a statement on a discussion forum and then refuse to defend the position when challenged.

Along those same lines of it being a discussion forum, you point is your point. It makes little difference if it your money, your Grandmothers money or no money at all. I am arguing your point, not what you do with your money.

Now you are correct when you say no one knows when the next spike will be, but that is simply not using the cyclical data to your advantage. It is more of an odds thing. Looking at the data, it clearly shows then next LIKLEY spike is far off and before that happens we still need to bottom out. No guarantees but if you are playing the odds, that is what it says. It cannot be any clearer. That is simply what the data shows. It you just throw that out the Window and say "Who cares, no one knows when the next spike is going to be anyway" I would really say you are more of a "faith" type of guy as you seem to want to disregard the cyclical data presented.

I believe where the disconnect is, you are saying Silver is cyclical and if you wait long enough it will rise again someday. True enough, but it seems you are completely ignoring the time frame. That spike you are waiting for may come long after we are dust. PLUS if you truly do believe in cyclical nature, it seems you are totally ignoring that LOWS are cyclical too and according to the data we have, we are no where close to that low point. It makes little sense to me to ignore this and once again it points more to your buying being based on "faith"

Also once again, this has NOTHING to do with what you are doing with YOUR money. It is a discussion about a point that YOU stated, which I completely disagree with and I did my best to explain why.

 

Last Dollar on my last day, that is my plan....

 

There are several things the charts do not identify, and these are only examples:
(a) "globalization" of the economy and thus of PMs. how much global demand there is. Related and not related to mining supplies, secondary and terciary supplies.
(b) any attempts to corner the "market" as it may be.
(c) differentiation of fiat and non-fiat spikes
(d) marketing exposure/drive/anxiety impacts

Charts and data must be extrapolated and one's calculations shown to understand their theory whether that information is used as a technical guidance or a simple guess. For instance I would think because if (a) listed above, the minimum target price could be $12 and not $6.

But then the markets are much more complex .. so who really knows ?

Maybe people will get anxiety and sell to stop any additional losses (ie, cash out), and thus drive the price down from secondary market supply.

 

All you did was recycle your last post and throw in all of your parameters by which I'm supposed to follow so that you can win the argument. I change nothing from my last post and I concede nothing to you.

 

Ok, but don't you find it at least interesting that we both say we believe in cycles, then look at the exact same data, but my conclusion is stay away and you conclusion is buy buy buy.

 

Here's the modern data that we have. I'm in my 40's and may never see another bull run for silver.

 

We are mirroring our affinity and lack of affinity for silver. That's all there is to it. And that's the real genius of investing, ESPECIALLY wall street. If "investors" acted in a totally objective, rational, and logical manner, as per their trite guru pretenses, markets would not move one inch, stocks would have "boring" PE ratios and Elon Musk would be serenading birthday girls at some sidewalk cafe for quarters their fathers toss in a bucket.

 

Interesting Inward Flows .... into S&P 500 Funds
Gold has one ETF in the Outward Flow at -333.59 Million
I do find it interesting that the top Outward Flow is a Corporate Bond Fund, which with yields of 3.39% I can see why .. it's having more competition. I prefer BBB+ Bond Funds at 10-20% return - a lot of Big name companies in that range that use that for operating funds.

 

"cycles" mean totally different things to different people.

Some Investment Managers tell the public to keep buying as the market goes down in order to help your Average (whilst their company strategy is different). Example: Friends of mine listened to their investment advisor and kept buying GoPro from the mid 50s all the way down to the 20s until they listened to me and sold to preserve losing cash.

A Better Investment Manager will tell the public not to buy whilst in a downward cycle, based upon detailed research and market analytics. And wait for a stable sideways, then and upward tick to start buying. Watching the trends while adding corporate financials and market analytics.

With the example above of GoPro, I noticed the competition jumping in the marketplace and they were displaced at the stores in a highly visible location. So I expected sales to drop considerably. Which is what happened. I told them to sell in the mid 50s. Oh well.

Or depending upon your strategy of quantity, it may be to buy as the market is "low" by comparison of where it was when it was "high". Which is easily now.

There's no reason to not buy as long as the buy price is equivalent to the spot price.

I track ASE & spot prices from time to time and notice the companies may slowly lower the buy price with premium based on demand. People get "urges" to buy when Spot may crash for a short time without actually seeing if what they are buying is actually any cheaper than it was the other day. It's call Windfall Profits; a common profit strategy in the gasoline marketplace which more people notice .. quick to go up, slow to come down.

If I had the spare cash right now, I'd be buying some gold coins. No doubt. My LT target was for under $1200, which it is right now.

Of course, now that it is under $1200 people think "more" "more" "more" and hold off. How many times have prices bounced the opposite direction after euphoria prevents them from buying?

as Gold now has an uptick in price .. + $2.80


alongwith silver at $0.08 uptick


but we'll wait and see how the US market reacts today ... so far



All futures are pointing up too

 

Back to the topic of Mortgages real quickly.

I recasted a short time ago.
I normally pay my mortgage up and above the monthly payment.
I've now adjusted that process to just pay my mortgage payment, and then put the extra monies aside.

When I get to the $5k savings of those extra monies (which is about 1-2/3 years) I'll just Recast my Mortgage again.

The mortgage company has their monthly payments fixed, and thus the interest payment is fixed. As I pay the payment + additional principal it really does not affect the interest. The recast "resets" everything and lowers the interest+payment. My future recasts will get faster though as I do not plan on lowering my total monthly monies to my mortgage.

 

No that is not it. I am just not buying into that chart period. Do you really think if a broker called me up and pitched a stock with that chart I would buy it for a stock, because I have an affinity for stocks??? The chart is horrible, and would not touch it if it was attached to stocks, real estate, pork bellies or fruit loops. Now call me up in 10 years or so when Silver has bottomed out at 6 bucks (inflation adjusted 2018 dollars). Now that would be a chart I would be interested in.

 

You don't have to buy it Mike. After all, it's your money not mine. But it's still about affinity for stocks, status quo, sparkling butterflies and frolicking unicorns. Oh yeah and beating your chest like Tarzan before climbing the wall of worry.

And that Old Fashion Love Song just destroys objectivity, logic, and rational thinking doesn't it? Yeah, it does. You wallstreet "investors" are guilty of the exact thing you claim stackers are guilty of.

 

In ten years your frolicking unicorns may be nothing more than stinky winos. Give me a call. I might be gracious enough to sell you some zombucks....and a deli apron for you to give to elon.

 

I'm really trying to scrap up the money to buy gold. I decided not to buy any auctions on various coins that I already have.

GOLD


SILVER


PLATINUM


and I was interested in palladium price just out of curiosity since the US MINT has made a coin of the metal.
PALLADIUM



@abuckmaster147 @LA_Geezer

 

here's a pretty lame article on gold dieing out ==> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-gold-might-die-out-as-an-investment-2018-08-15

on another note,
I think ETFs, while making it easy for people to invest in Silver/Gold, also waters down PMs as one is very easily able to move in and out of the metals as they do not have to actually inventory it. Of course, they lose the allure of holding it too. So it ends up being another number on their portfolio. Thus shifting in/out of it is easy.

I don't invest in metal ETFs due to the overhead costs associated with it and the problem that I can't hold it.

But I see metal ETFs now as a short term investment platform instead of a long term investment as it may have been 10+ years ago.

I wonder how many newer investors of PMs are electronic versus physical holdings ?
And thus the length of time they hold their holdings?

looks like their dumping their holdings as the ETF chart I showed above indicated.




@abuckmaster147 @LA_Geezer

 

I would love to know what the Mgt at the online bullion dealers are thinking now.
If they bought their stock at higher prices, then they'll have to maintain a high Premium to recoup some of those prices (for gov't minted coins); of course they could also manufacture on-demand for their brand bullion. Then you have what they have in stock purchased at various prices.

And of course all those variables for competition against other bullion places.
I wonder if the sudden downswing is going to put any in any bad financial positions.