Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Soiled, Apr 1, 2016.
The tech sector has out performed others in this century! Good for the mutual funds portfolios.
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The US Dollar is getting stronger, which will push PMs down.
Some days being the least dirty shirt in the hamper is more than good enough.
My portfolio is until i take my cans and bottles back.
Aluminum and silica investments ?
I wonder what an ANA show with sub-$15 silver looks like. Ugly, I bet. Short on inventory for sure. In September 2011, one of our regular dealers at our fall show didn't bring any silver ASE's with him to our show because he was "in it at $35". I wonder when he ate them.
Evidence that buying coins either to sell or collect is a totally different matter than buying bullion coins as a PMs investment.
I heard they're good with several spoonfuls of sugar. Makes them more tasty.
Bloomberg TV yesterday showed a chart yesterday which showed the Nasdaq index, I think it was. The top Large Yield companies were pushing the index up, but a larger portion of the index companies, especially the small creeping into the medium sized were losing. Should be interesting next couple of months if that is the case.
US Dollar Index is up ….
although GOLD is actually propping up today so far after a drop
kinda some info about it ... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...-as-dollar-manages-tentative-gains-2018-08-08
In relations to investments, I think I mentioned in the past that I was an investor in online lending (peer to peer); to individual debtors and company debtors. Last year I decided to stop and wait for my contracts to expire, all 3 yr papers. It's slow going, and more ppl seem to be having problems making payments. All this and I did an analysis up front of looking for high probability of payback, based on the online companies "numbers and information" which excluded seeing the true credit report. blah.
Sometimes in the US these are being sold as "better than a savings account, savings account" blah to that too.
Anyways .. the US is one thing. China apparently is closing shop of many of these online lender companies and many of them are leaving their "investors" high and dry and with nothing in return. All their monies have gone "poof" into cyberspace. So either the lenders are off the hook now and/or the company execs ran off with the monies .. but the "investors" are left holding the empty bag.
whilst, something like this, could start a shift to safe havens, including PMs.
I think Crypto now has it's distractors, enough so where the ppl parking $$ in it may have fled already. But I think cash holdings are up overall for the general population.
on a positive note, silver is up 2 cents. yes, TWO Shiney Pennies.
and gold down $1.30. What a travesty.
Turkey, the new Greece.
US DOLLAR INDEX
In this case, based solely on the Dollar Index, PM should be dropping. But they aren't. Treasuries up a bit, as CPI shows "perculating inflation" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-government-bonds-yields-retreat-after-cpi-2018-08-10
@V. Kurt Bellman Your beloved Gold is going to breach $1200/oz. Oh wait, you're probably partying about it.
US Dollar Index
There seems to be something going on with volcanoes this year? Enough volcanic eruptions may lead to crop failures and then spikes in food prices down the road. But oh no, food inflation is not really inflation is it? Or has the Bureau of Lumpy Swill
finally manage to buy some software that smooths out those horrible, horrible "volatile" food prices so that they might be included in the CPI?
Stackers should stop hoping for inflation. Inflation is an effect not a cause. The cause is lack of confidence in government and institutions (Got Turkey?)
*Metals are swaps against loss of confidence.* the effects that follow that loss of confidence can be inflation, currency collapse, spikes in metal prices, wars, etc.
But not today. Confidence in the US and the USD is on the moon. And currency fleeing zoos like Turkey flow into the USD and prop it up even more.
What was that phrase? "Cleanest shirt in the hamper"? And it doesn't matter how many gold rings, bracelets and necklaces you have when you're already ten minutes late for work...
You forgot debt as a market driving force; sooner or later.
The USD *is* the World currency that the banks, oil market, PM markets, et all trade on. So there are many reasons there is a run to the US Dollar. China is trying to convert their part of the world to the same situation but on their Yuan.
Many ppl see CPI lump "food" as one category in many summarized charts of 8 major categories.
But CPI contains, as separate categories a whole range of *separate* food products, such as (all as separate line items in CPI calculations):
coffee; frozen/freeze dried foods; juices & drinks, carbonated drinks; sugar/sweeteners; apples; fats/oils / butter; frozen fruits/veggies; snacks; other diary/related products; butter and margarine; milk; flours; salad dressings ;sweets; soups; cereals; ice cream; bananas; bakery products; pork chops; wine, etc etc etc.
I haven't added it up, but I would guess that the "food" component of the CPI has far more categories that most ppl would clump into a single category of "food" than any other related categories.
The problem is, of course, there are certain categories that have a much more profound effect on CPI than the other categories, such as home prices, gasoline prices, physician services, prescription drugs, cars, airline, etc. This as ppl will spend more money, stereotypically, on those categories than food.
For those interested, the CPI numbers are not just released for the country as a whole but are also released for regions too. Which can be obtained on this webpage: https://www.bls.gov/regions/subjects/consumer-price-indexes.htm
Of course, I look at food prices as fairly stable excluding the recent market turmoil. It's the logistics portion of food costs that are mostly being driven up for various reasons, which of course are reflected in the price at the checkout.
Generally speaking. a logistics/transportation increase of 10% accounts for roughly a 1% increase in inflation because it affects literally everything.
more companies are driven to using the "spot" market for logistics, which is even more costly than the general contracts. etc. Unlike PMs, the spot market for logistics has been steadily driving up A LOT !! .. 30-50+%
Gold did dip as low as $1,194 and is just hanging above $1,200. Treasuries, not gold, is the safe haven for the Turkish financial mess.
Well that freak show starts when the USD is so strong it breaks countries trying to service their debt in USD. Which leads to more loss of confidence and more inflow to USD. BTW, Martin Armstrong has alot to say about all this in his blogs.
I think we will see Ag and Au go to end of 2015 levels. Gold was at under $1,100. and Silver under $14.00. Now the question is will you:
a) back up the truck, continue buying, and buy low with the intention of selling high?
b) get out now while you still can without taking a bath?
c) Hold your position?
d) None of the above?
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