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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Smitty, post: 1396851, member: 35044&quot;]Beats the heck outta me.</p><p><br /></p><p>I wait for macro-events to judge this kind of trade.</p><p><br /></p><p>If you use technical analysis support/resistance, the next solid level of support below $27 is just under $20.</p><p><br /></p><p>My &quot;deflating silver&quot; thinking and belief that the economy is definitely not improving is based upon the following:</p><p><br /></p><ul> <li>Even the always optimistic Goldman Sachs has lowered Q1 GDP to 1.8%,&nbsp; which means it will likely be 1.2 -1.5. That&#039;s not real growth, even at the optimistic 1.8%.</li> <li>Gas prices&nbsp; are about to go over $4.00.</li> <li>Housing is still falling. The Case-Schiller index just hit its lowest level in 9 years.</li> <li>Wages are&nbsp; stagnant. They rose 1.9% over the past year ... even less than the cooked CPI number, and far below the assumed true inflation number of ~6%.</li> <li>The unemployment numbers are mainly cooked by&nbsp; dropping people&nbsp; from the rolls. I predicted a year ago that they would be rigged to get&nbsp; below 8% before the election. These numbers were utterly predictable. There were 140 million jobs in 2009 and 140 million jobs in 2012 (Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers). So how can 140 million jobs generate an unemployment rate of 10% in 2009&nbsp; and 8.3% in 2012 while the population has grown by 6&nbsp; million?</li> <li>Earnings are cooked. 35% of the earnings increase is&nbsp; from currency revaluation.</li> <li>Retail sales increases are being driven by&nbsp; the increase in fuel cost and autos. And the auto number is being cooked&nbsp; by GM dealer-stuffing to make it look like they&#039;re selling more cars&nbsp; than they are.</li> <li>People are re-leveraging, while the savings rate has been going down ... again</li> <li>ECRI predicts a recession, and I&#039;ve never known ECRI to be wrong.</li> <li>Over $2 trillion has been added to the global money supply since November. That is the only thing holding the markets up. Trading volume is down substantially.</li> <li>And on and on ...</li> </ul><p>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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