SILVER - Call the Top

Place your bets Ladies and Gentleman. Silver is currently approaching $50 an ounce and has seen an incredible run up lately. Call the top in current US Dollar price of one ounce of .999 Silver Bullion before it settles.

I'm going out on a limb:

$Infinity

Zimbabwe here we come.
http://justforsneaks.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/zimbabwe-100-trillion-dollar-bill-obverse.jpg

 

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Top? What top?

What bubble??

The link above is to charts of what's going on with the big EFTs. May help some.

 

Ninety nine dollars and seventy cents, thats the top, the crash will take it down to 8, (try to buy it tho), then it will stabilize around thirty.

 

$49.98 :d

 

Whenever a new currency is introduced.

Edit: sorry can't say in USD

 

The top will be $80.01 in November 2012. You figure it out.

 

Hypothetical of course - Assume we lose world reserve currency status in time for the Fed to avoid QE3 (I'm hoping they'll only devalue the dollar for as long as they can export inflation), I'd imagine a pullback from $60 to the mid 30's this summer followed by the usual late year bull propelled by delayed effects of inflation catching up from QE2 and continued low interest rates leading up to $75 before the new year selloff. Then interest rates are raised and $50 silver becomes the new low. This is my rosy scenario Otherwise QE3+ happens, and the top is whenever the dollar defaults. Maybe $500 in mid 2012.

 

I say $49.99

so if we were playing "the price is right rules" I win and get to play a game for cash and prizes right?

 

Silver will NOT hit $50 in 2011. Silver went up 83% in 2010 and it is up about 50% so far in 2011. In other words, It has run-up too far too fast and it will get smacked down. It could get ugly on the way down and possibly go down to the lows that we hit earlier this year.

 

Hummmm... those are mighty strong words.. you know it wll more than likely reach this number so it can ya in the rear end and folks can ya a little bit too..??

I for one am not sure what a top would be...seems to me many factors would need to occur to make it react in a hyper parobolic rise.
I am on the side lines, waiting and have a target set for a sale price...what that is remains private for me.


RickieB

 

I think the top in Silver in this cycle will be somewhere between $100 and $160 an ounce and would occur sometime between 2015 and 2020.

By the way, I like the dualing icons above --- it reminds me of the dynamics of a lot of threads on this board.

 

$130 an ounce.
^by labor day

 

Is there a time frame to this? I would agree with nearly the infinity answer if unlimited time and pricing in nominal dollars, (or nominal euros, pesos, etc), assuming a normal inflationary economy.

If you are asking for a top of the current cycle before it comes down, I don't know. I have never been good at calling any tops or bottoms. I will be honest and have been lucky the bulk of my silver is in another state and unfortunately I lost the key. This has stopped me from getting access to it and selling once it hit $30, so now I am unsure what to do, but am seriously thinking I will get it in a week or two and start to sell into this strength.

Chris

 

Meanwhile silver has raced through $47
($47.37 on friday morning)

What I am wondering is how many people on this board are heavily long silver?

- I am guessing it's about 10% perhaps?
- I think perhaps another 20% believe in silver and would like to have more
but can't afford it (or wish they bought more at lower levels)
- The vast majority (I get the impression) think that silver is in a bubble and either sold at much lower levels
or want to sell what they have -- and think it's going to crash -- and soon.

 

We're in uncharted territory. I'm going to guess $80/oz in 2011, $120/oz in 2012.

I emphasize the word "guess"

 

$47.53 now ...

 

Don't you all believe silver will continue to rise as long as the dollar is falling and demand in China subsides? I do not see any of those things reversing until at least 2013....... If ever. I have heard there are still not enough individual people invested in silver to counter if a "big boy" investment company dumps there silver. If this is true, how long would it take, at this rate of individual investment, before this is not true?

 

Personally I think silver will hit a glut, too much supply which will outpace demand will cause a sever fall in prices, I don't think they will hit historic lows but I think it will correct itself to around $20+/- a few dollars by next year.

 

I don't get that impression Winged. Any post that Cloud and I have made is more one of caution. I have never said I know where silver will be, just talking caution and moderation. When price movements like this happen, as you have seen, lots of new and excited people get interested in it. We were just trying to analyze valuation, and temper some enthusiasm by bringing up the point that 1) fast moving markets are frequently very volatile down as well as up, and 2) Frequently in todays time there are larger players in a market that you do not know about until long after a bull run is over. I am speaking specifically of the run in oil up to $140, and the fact that it took about 2 years for everyone to see the hedge funds that were involved in this market. This was in the oil market, probably 1000 times larger if not more than the thinly traded sivler market.

The other caveat I try to let people think about is physical PM is not like other markets. To buy physical silver today you will have to pay a premium over melt. If tomorrow silver drops to $39, if you try to sell you will have to take a pretty steep discount to melt. Its a very high transaction cost market, and it gets much worst if prices are falling, its not like stocks or bonds where you can sell at the market price anytime you feel like exiting. Therefor, physical PM is an investment best suited for long term holding to try to overcome these deficiencies.

Most of us here love PM, why else would we participate on this board? This is not a general chat board. I would say most people here are enthusiastic about silver.

Chris