Silver Below $14

Well, it certainly was your day. The Euro closed just a tad below $1.06 to the dollar. I really thought the idea of dollar-Euro parity was a bit wild at first. That was at a buck and 13 cents...

 

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Silver dropped below the $14 floor today to 13.96, it closed at 14.01. It has gained a little since close but I expect it to go even lower.

 

I haven't seen it that low in, I can't remember when. Wow. Can we go for a a Triple Lindy?

 

It briefly broke below $14 about a month or two ago in intraday trading

 

I really don't care as long as it goes up again =)

 

Historically, what is the lowest spot price silver has ever sold for? Two or three dollars an ounce? This may help some know when to buy.

 

3.50 a ounce in the early 90s the same time I was collecting oodles of comic books and baseball cards. Which was one bad investment to think I bagged and bordered the comic books and cards too.

 

If we all knew what was hot and when and for how long , we'd all be billionaires. Which I doubt few on this board are .

 

Love to buy silver dollars/"scrap" for 5 bux oz. instead of 20.00 or so now,never know what will be in the batch?

 

What's in most bulk silver. , common date coins . Why should silver dollars be any different ?

 

Here's a chart that I created at the beginning of 2015 and I've updated for now. It shows the CPI, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and silver value by years since 1980. About 5% of my portfolio is in silver but it is not to get rich. It is more hedge against uncertainty.

Year CPI S&P Dow Nadaq Silver

1980 82.400 136 964 202 16.000
1981 90.900 123 875 196 7.790
1982 96.500 141 1,047 232 10.750
1983 99.600 165 1,259 279 8.080
1984 103.900 167 1,212 247 5.830
1985 107.600 211 1,547 324 5.780
1986 109.600 242 1,896 349 5.570
1987 113.600 247 1,939 360 6.760
1988 118.300 278 2,169 381 6.120
1989 124.000 353 2,753 455 5.280
1990 130.700 330 2,634 374 4.060
1991 136.200 417 3,169 586 4.140
1992 140.300 436 3,301 677 3.750
1993 144.500 466 3,754 777 5.040
1994 148.200 459 3,834 752 4.720
1995 152.400 616 5,117 1,052 5.250
1996 156.900 741 6,448 1,291 4.760
1997 160.500 970 7,908 1,570 6.010
1998 163.000 1,229 9,181 2,193 5.150
1999 166.600 1,469 11,497 4,041 5.330
2000 172.200 1,320 10,769 2,471 4.740
2001 177.100 1,148 10,022 1,950 4.770
2002 179.880 880 8,342 1,336 4.700
2003 183.960 1,112 10,454 2,003 6.320
2004 188.900 1,212 10,783 2,178 7.980
2005 195.300 1,248 10,718 2,205 8.420
2006 201.600 1,418 12,463 2,415 13.700
2007 207.342 1,468 13,265 2,652 14.690
2008 215.303 903 8,776 1,577 11.360
2009 214.537 1,115 10,428 2,269 17.020
2010 218.056 1,258 11,578 2,653 27.410
2011 224.939 1,258 12,218 2,605 27.320
2012 229.594 1,426 13,104 3,020 31.810
2013 232.957 1,848 16,577 4,177 20.010
2014 236.736 2,059 17,823 4,635 16.180
2015 237.838 2,090 17,798 5,127 14.000

 

That chart makes me sad. In 2000, we were in a huge construction boom, and silver was under $5. I had made alot of money and had put most of my "extra" money in stocks.
A friend of mine who was a gemologist, kept telling me to get out of the stocks and buy silver. He had worked for a huge jewelry company for many years and the company wanted to transfer him to Dallas, but he didn't want to go. They gave him an ultimatum, he called their bluff and lost. Long story short, he was working for me in construction, though he was far from broke.
He kept telling me that he knew the supply of silver was tight from the knowledge of being in jewelry and if the economy took one hiccup, the price would go outta sight.
I was lucky about the stocks. I sold nearly all I had and built a new house. It didn't pay for it but it did knock a chunk out. In just a few years, along came the hiccup, home prices bottomed, and silver prices jumped ten fold My buddy became a millionaire and I was paying notes on a house that wasn't worth what I had in it. Could kick myself every time I think about it.

 

Historically? Like 30-40 cents an oz in the last 100 years, probably much less than that if you go farther back. But it doesn't mean much due to an ever inflating dollar.

 

Investing depends on your time horizon. If you look at 35 years, the Nasdaq was your best choice and silver was the worse one. If you look at 15 years, the best was silver and the worse was the Dow. If you look at the past 5 years, the best was Nasdaq and the worse was silver. If you look at silver since 1980, it is worse than the CPI. If you look at it since 2000, it continues to be the best investment but it is rapidly falling. If you assume that silver will return to its 2000 level, it could fall to $6.50/oz (CPI adjusted). If you assume that silver will return to its 2010 level, it will bounce to $30/oz (CPI adjusted).

 

If it was raining soup, I'd have nothing but a fork.

 

Feeling a little coudy with a chance of meatballs are we

 

$14.06 right now, perfect time to buy!

 

I'll wait for $8 .

 

Three problems:
1) Virtually no one who plays with coins, gold, or silver understands banking and/or modern economic theory. Austrian School economics is pure hooey, and only metals guys buy their garbage paradigm.
2) Everything that happened to the PM markets after the initial 2008-09 pullback in metals is based on an incorrect assumption - that QE had to cause inflation. Metals people still believe. They're still wrong, if not clinically insane.
3) The Fed is completely benign. They don't create money. Every commercial bank does, every time they make a loan to anyone - mortgage, commercial or personal. The only way to risk inflation is easy credit on a massive scale. Like liar loans returning.

 

POINT NUMBER 2.. is where I am at so I may be insane...