Silver and Gold Prices

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by icollectoldmoney, Mar 6, 2015.

  1. ASE2015

    ASE2015 New Member

    Goldfinger,

    I have heard of diversification. I actually mentioned it in the post you quoted. You said earlier in this thread that PMs perform mediocre at best, and poorly for the most part. I just showed what the returns were for the 4 major PMs. They offer pretty much the same returns as your 'rough estimate' diversified portfolio of stocks.

    You have yet to show any evidence or data to back your main point that PMs perform poorly most of the time and mediocre at best. Go ahead and avoid the real debate here, and nitpick on my terminology again.
     
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  3. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Have you seen the problems other countries are facing ?

    We may be the best house in a lousy neighborhood.
     
  4. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    You did, but you used 1 time period. A longer period or changing the periods is better. This eliminates sample (time) bias. Rolling periods is the way to go.

    Not avoiding anything, I would have thought this was common knowledge among PM investors.

    Here's a very long chart the makes the case and a shorter-one, too:
     

    Attached Files:

  5. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    Look at our connecting neighbors, Canada and Mexico. 2 Years ago Canadian dollar was about parity to USD, 1:1 , and Mexico was about 1 USD=12 pesos. Today it is 1 USD = 1.27 Canadian, and 1 USD = 15.5 pesos. The Euro you ask? From 1.35 USD = 1 Euro just 1 Year ago, to 1.05 USD per Euro today.

    The odds are much greater that this will not return to 2008 levels as much as continue. The US has to raise interest rates soon to slow it down though ( IMO of course)
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  6. beef1020

    beef1020 Junior Member

    The s&p 500, a diversified stock portfolio, returned 10.7% annualized from 1986 until the end of 2014, that is a 19 fold increase, $1 grew into $19, over those years. PMs may protect you from inflation, at best in my opinion, but they do not touch returns in stocks over any decent length of time.

    I am sure you will find some reason why the s & p 500 is a bad investment, but it's not on the basis that return are comparable to PM...
     
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  7. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Yup...the artificial stimulus of strong oil prices has faded as has the EU experiment (Greece).

    I have no idea where the bottom in gold is, I just used the $800 level as a big downside target. I would personally buy as we approach/break $1,000/oz.
     
  8. beef1020

    beef1020 Junior Member

    Just a heads up, when most people invest in bonds they are not buying savings bonds. They are buying tradeable debt instruments issued by either the government, t-bills, or by corporations. Savings bonds are more akin to a savings account, not an investment.
     
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  9. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    I do feel that PM or similar such as ammo, solar panel, security systems, water purification, explosives for mining, dehydrated foods, etc., have a place as a black swan event in a diversified "investment" holdings, maybe 5%. My observation though is that too many feel they need to build this part up first and then the other 95% 'later'. When really it should be proportional. Most people are late to the party ( what ever the investment of the day) and don't have the patience to build a reasonable portfolio and to use every legal loophole you can to retain your income. The S&P 500 is one, but I would supplement with a wider indexed fund, and at least one of Tech and Medicine, which I feel will be even larger than the tech area within a decade. I am not a financial adviser so research.
     
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  10. beef1020

    beef1020 Junior Member

    This list is pretty meaningless for basically any discussion. It's a list of international creditors, as the list is just 'external debt'. As such it basically tells you the countries with the largest global financial systems, i.e. US, Luxemberg, Switzerland, and the UK, not much of a surprise really. While Luxemberg has a huge 'external debt', when you net out their 'external assets' they actually are a net international creditor. The list you posted ignores their assets. How much can you tell about my personal fiscal health if I told you I have $1 million in total debt?

    The lists you want are:

    Net international position: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

    Or public debt: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2015
  11. ASE2015

    ASE2015 New Member

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  12. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

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  13. Tinpot

    Tinpot Well-Known Member

    If even one of the six mega banks fails the entire system is going down. It will happen eventually.
     
  14. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Not necessarily.....Central Banks are supposed to be the backstops.

    Bear Stearns failed -- problem lasted a week as it was mopped up.

    Lehman Brothers failed -- problem lasted months as it was allowed to go under in chaos.
     
  15. westcoasting

    westcoasting Active Member

  16. coleguy

    coleguy Coin Collector

    Well, the major issues might have lasted a few months, but there are still problems going on because of it ten years later. However, smart investors saw it as a golden opportunity. I made more money during that year of financial chaos than I ever have before or since by manipulating my stock holdings. And really, I don't consider myself a very aggressive investor.
     
  17. beef1020

    beef1020 Junior Member

    If you were willing to take the risk that was certainly true. It's a weakness of the generally sold advice to buy and hold, but then once in a generation events occur and there is a lot of oppurtunity if you move.
     
  18. fretboard

    fretboard Defender of Old Coinage!

    Already sold, last year. Both gold and silver prices are going down and they will go down a lot more. I plan on buying when the prices get back to the prices I want to pay. I'll reveal more of my 'master plan' as the prices fall, more and more. icon_mrgreen.gif
     
  19. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member


    LMAO. Worst advice ever. Last seen over 5 years ago.
     
  20. Oldhoopster

    Oldhoopster It seemed like a good idea at the time.

    @goldcollector love how you pull up these old threads. Now, many of these older members who haven't been here for a while, will get a notification that there is a new post. What great opportunity to inform them that you're a scammer and thief who stole money from another Coin Talk member and all of that is documented in the archives.

    Now more people will be warned not to trust you with any deals, and can judge your integrity (or lack thereof) and credibility of your posts.

    For once, you're actually helping
     
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  21. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member


    Gold up almost $700 since the day this silvidiot posted this nonsense.
     
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