Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by icollectoldmoney, Mar 6, 2015.
Based on WHAT ????
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In my opinion, the prices are out of balance right now. Platinum has always been higher than gold. Which is better a gold Visa, or a platinum Visa? When platinum becomes higher than gold, then the market has corrected itself.
Isn't China still signalling deflation? I'll guess we see ~$12.50/ozt for the low in 2015, but not for long.
It's just an "adjustment"due to the worldwide economic slowdown it will drop more once India/China start cleaning their houses of corruption/RE "bubbles".....
I am not a patient person by any means. But when you buy precious metals it should be very long term. I do not plan on selling or trading in until, I buy my first house. And I will not be purchasing a house until the price comes way down and I can pay about half in cash (or gold/silver)
Speculating -- it isn't 'investing' -- in PM's to accumulate savings for a house or anything else is not a good move.
PM's should be a supplement to your regular financial savings -- stocks, bonds, CD's, cash, etc. -- and if you make a windfall, great.
If not, no great loss.
Ditto coin collecting.
But PMs do not pay interest or dividends so do NOT use them as a substitute for stocks/bonds/cash.
I do have cash and 401k and other financial accounts.
I never said it was investing. I don't think its speculating. It is certainly a store of value. I plan on storing them for about a decade or two until I can afford to trade them for real estate.
As for the speculating...I am speculating that real estate is in a bubble and will come down eventually. The Fed has been pumping trillions into the housing market, if they ever raise prices, I believe (speculate) that the prices will come back down.
But it IS speculating. Just know that it is. Because it doesn't pay a dividend/interest, is volatile, and is subject to numerous price pressures (jewelry demand, central bank selling, mines, shifting tastes, etc.).
If you bought into gold late in the 1970's it took you forever to break even even if you bought yearly.
Housing already had a crash and demographics argue for pent-up housing demand even if home ownership peaked in 2007.
If I bought gold in 1970....Gold today is worth about over 30 times what it was in 1970! Gold and silver hold their values in the long term. Yes, markets and prices vary. Gold and silver will outlive any stock, bond, or currency. They have so far.
I do agree desertgem! Real estate and farm land has real value as well.
The problem is that if the dollar is entering a new 7-year bull market and has a few years to run it will negatively impact gold.
Plus, emerging market demand could stall, though I think rising middle-class incomes offsets that.
Look, I can make a case for $3,000/oz. gold in 2025. But I can also see $750 by 2017.
You own bonds/CDs for portfolio ballast, not income.
Data mining....you're choosing a year BEFORE the end of Bretton Woods and Nixon taking us off the gold standard.
How are the returns from 1979 or 1980 ?
Rolling periods shows precious metals and gold to be on balance BAD investments with BAD returns.
Overheated....prices of CAT and Deere say otherwise. The Commodity Supercycle is still deflating and farmland is not immune.
That said, check out MHG for a spec income play.
I don't think housing is massively overvalued, but who is going to be buying all the houses once the baby boomer generation starts dying off? The jobs being "created" of late are all almost crappy ones that don't pay well. The unemployment rate for young people is high and I don't see things getting better in America. I just don't see enough buyers to keep housing from dropping again unless maybe there is a very large investment demand.
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