Should I get out of the Stock Market?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Adam34falcon, Dec 16, 2017.

  1. Woodlandfarie

    Woodlandfarie New Member

    Hello GoldFinger1969. My father passed away and left some collectable coins behind. Are collectable coins holding their value in today's global crisis? What's the quickest way for me to get onboard with understanding the commodity value of these collectables?
     
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  3. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    That chart is beyond worthless. Half of it is made up of common date common grade Saints (aka bullion), classic commemoratives (been dropping for decades), and common date common grade morgans. It gets even worse if you really go look at what is actually used to make that chart.

    It'd be like making a chart that gave equal weight to the USA and New Zealand on something and then tried to say it was accurate, it's not nor is that stupid other one
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  4. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Excellent point about the composition mattering when talking about an index. I have to go back and check -- we talked about the PCGS 3000 in another thread -- but I don't recall if "half" is literally common Saints, classic commemoratives (which ones ?), and Morgans.

    Also, is the PCGS index equal-weighted or "capitalization" ($$$) weighted.... which gives more weight to higher-priced coins.
     
  5. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Half for those three alone was probably an exaggeration but classic commemoratives are several hundred lines of it. I was at 50 counting them well before even finishing the A ones for those. For sure at least half of that chart are things so common they have no upside without metals prices going to the moon. It also mixes proof and ms, low grade and high grade etc.

    https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pcgs3000

    Nothing on any page indicated the chart is weighted in anyway so we have to assume everything is treated equally. Its an atrocious chart.
     
  6. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    And yet, it is what PCGS presents, even though you believe they could produce a "better" index that would show a rosier picture of the market. And even though presenting such a picture would materially benefit PCGS and collectors, by avoiding the "false" indication that graded coins fail to hold their value over time.

    So, why does PCGS continue to present and maintain this index, if it harms both them and the collectors who hold their coins?
     
    medoraman likes this.
  7. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Because often times we get something just because that’s the way it’s always been done. There’s never going to be a good catch all chart for coins that gives any meaningful information. What do common mercury dimes have to do with capped bust proofs, nothing but in that chart they impact each other and there’s countless examples of things like that.

    Even if you broke the chart up into 10 or 15 different categories (which they should at least do that) you still only get limited information trying to present something that’s a catch all for for a series.

    Actually looking at results in the marketplace is far more helpful where you can find direct comparisons even over many years instead of looking at muddled catch all charts
     
  8. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Sure, except that then you run the risk of picking (even subconsciously) only the coins whose performance matches your expectations.

    "The chart shows coins dropping because it's heavily weighted toward coins that have been dropping" just doesn't seem very convincing to me. You have convinced me that looking at the overall chart isn't a good way to get a feel for the performance of one particular coin or series, but that's not a real surprise.
     
  9. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Only if you're a fool. If you're looking at market results you look at what is comparable. You don't look at CAC coins for comparisons of low end ones and vice versa. Look at the same grade not F for Gems or 63s if you're looking for a VF etc. Then the astute collector will take into account variables.

    Was this a no reserve eBay auction from a small seller, is this an outlier, was the sale bad timing, was everything really hot at that moment for some reason, was that the right venue for the sale, toning or not and so on.

    Most US coins have enough of a history of sales to get a fairly good idea to work off of. It should also be considered that the premium quality for the grade come up for sale a lot less often than the lower end/ugly ones as people tend to be happier with the nicer purchases and hold onto them longer
     
  10. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Well, that almost makes it sound as if the number on a coin's slab isn't actually a good indicator of the coin's relative desirability...
     
  11. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    More like price. Every grade will always have high and low ends
     
  12. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Or even several of each, sticking out in different directions. One 64 has pristine surfaces, but the luster isn't quite there; another has booming luster, but one or two unfortunate contact marks in prominent spots; another has rainbow toning. For each one, there'll be some people who think it's spectacular for the grade, others who think it shouldn't have scored that high. Agreed?
     
  13. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    No argument there. There’s a lot of different combinations of the different grading factors for how coins can end up with the same grade.

    Everyone has their own preferences of what matters more which is fine, it’s even better if they can realize how that is the same or differs from the majority of people. It’s a good thing though since if everyone had the exact same preferences those coins would be sky high
     
    -jeffB likes this.
  14. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    And lots of others would be in the tank.
     
    baseball21 likes this.
  15. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Well, I just took a quick look. Sure looks to me like a LOT of very high end coins, (not a "bunch of garbage" as some may assert. 8 listings of the 1885 key date nickel, all the way from circulated to MS66? Seems really top heavy if anything, not representing average collector coins. Most people might own a BU no cents liberty head, how many own very high grade BU 1885?

    I disagree with your characterization of this chart. Please, everyone, take a look for yourself. Most coins listed are better than most of my coins, and if THEY are taking a beating not even accounting for purchase/sale spread, how horrible are your slabbed coins doing for returns?

    Me, I am just stupid I guess. I buy what I like, do not pay someone else for their opinion, and enjoy myself. No one else needs to get rich off of giving me opinions of my hobby.

    I would just like everyone to note how certain members here just love to jump in hot on a thread that would dare infer that buying slabbed coins isn't the smartest thing you have ever done. I wonder what is driving such behavior repeatedly? Could it be he has some sort of vested interest? I will tell everyone here I do not sell coins, own stock in any firm that profits by coins, do not have a job related to coins in any way. I similarly do not have any interest in anything that would make money if no one buys any coins. Is everyone else as free of biases?
     
  16. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    You have a very different definition of high end then the rest of people then.

    You really might want to actually go back and look at that index in an unbiased manner. There's 5 1937-D buffalos alone where 4 of them are worth $50 or less. Same thing with the 38-D buffalo. Countless under $50 Mercs. Hundred of classic commems including in grades like MS 63 and 64. MS 63 and 64 common date Morgans and Peace dollars, $20 gold dates in grades where bullion value controls their prices and it goes on and on as that was just off the top of my head.

    There are some high end ones mixed in, it isn't a majority nor close and also just shows how dumb it is to have a chart that mixes high end coins with $20-30 dollar coins
     
  17. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Nice to meet you Adam, being that your only
    12, I would take your question to someone
    more qualified then the people on this forum
    as there is no guarantee on advice !

    But I will tell you what I have done, I have
    moved $184,000 from stocks and bonds
    to a high yield savings account, I won’t
    make the 7% i was making before but
    will still get 2.75% with ZERO risk !

    Atleast for a little while until things calm
    down. but I would for sure get maybe
    your father or mother involved in helping
    You make an important decision like this.
     
  18. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Hmm, a post on collector's universe actually postulates what I am, it is filled with extremely high dollar items.

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/956360/what-is-the-pcgs-3000-index

    1794 Specimen silver dollar, along with chain cents in BU, will wipe out thousands of common coin price movements, no?

    Btw, if your postulation about bullion coins were correct, I wonder why the index didn't hardly move when PM last skyrocketed? If it truly is filled with tons of bullion coins distorting the results, there should have been some kind of correlation when silver spiked to $49 and gold over $1900, but I see nothing really in the chart.

    Point being overall, investment or collector coins have been a poor investment, especially considering selling costs not even shown in charts like this that make results 15-20 percent worst. Collect coins for the love of it, invest in bullion as a small part of a portfolio if you wish, but always acknowledge you are investing in bullion, and not coins, so premiums that raise your cost are wasted for this purpose.

    Just my opinion, but I have lost as much or more as others in the markets the last couple of weeks. Like others here said, take this advice for what you paid for it. Honest people do and should differ. I really do like having you here @baseball21 and respect your opinion on many subjects. We simply disagree sometimes on a few. You are a knowledgable numismatist without a doubt.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
    -jeffB and mpcusa like this.
  19. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Friends don’t let friends buy graded bullion :)
    trying to recover the premium is next to
    impossible, I could have a mint state US
    eagle and it would be worth the same as
    one that was run over by a train !
     
  20. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    It's not filled with them but there's certainly some.

    There's not really anything indicating things as weighted and those don't sell very often anyways. Regardless the premium top of the top market isn't a good indicator of anything overall anyways. People that can afford 6 and 7 figure coins have their own market that operates independent of everything else just as sub $100 and really sub $50 are exactly indicative of the collectables market as many of them are very susceptible to melt price changes.

    Common date common grade morgans and peace dollars carry premiums over melt, but if silver goes to $4 tomorrow their price is going down, if it goes to $40 their price is going up, if silver stays flat their price will likely slowly go down as the internet creates an atmosphere that puts downward pressure on readily available common things. When you can go online and find hundreds if not more of something unless it has something distinguishing its just another fish in the sea unless you slightly lower the price from everyone else

    There's some in there, not it's not overloaded with them. Anyone that wants to put weight into that chart though aside from the anomaly in the late 80s that won't happen again it actually does paint a very positive picture for coins. It's been very stable since 95 and early 80s or before has gone up significantly.

    My issue with the chart is the same it's always been. It mixes ms and proofs, it mixes $40 dollar coins with high end ones, popular series with unpopular, tells no stories about why something happened such as the 13-S nickel going down because someone had hoarder a roll of them which later came to market etc. The coin market is much more complex than one chart could ever tell
     
  21. oldfinecollector

    oldfinecollector Well-Known Member

    This chart is just edited marketing. When it is your monney make yourself your home work and never rely on advisors. Why someone will earn monney to advise you about how to get rich if he can apply its brain and be rich. Rich people never advise other. Some like Warren Buffet create investment funds but they act they don’t advise or do charts.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 12, 2020
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