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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Cloudsweeper99, post: 652189, member: 3011&quot;]I don&#039;t worry about oil.&nbsp; For one thing, data on the oil market is so bad that I don&#039;t think anybody knows what is going on, even if they pretend they do.&nbsp; Since most of the production and consumption data outside of the US is a state secret, none of the numbers seem trustworthy.&nbsp; Another issue is that the oil market is so huge that even a large speculator can&#039;t really move the price.&nbsp; Also, if JP Morgan buys oil and sits on it, it doesn&#039;t necessarily drive up prices.&nbsp; It might actually drive down prices because whatever they hold becomes &quot;inventory overhang.&quot;&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>Most of the commodity markets are pretty honest.&nbsp; The one glaring exception is silver [and gold, but less so], where futures can be used to manipulate the price downward and the regulators look the other way.&nbsp; The silver market is tiny compared to, say, oil or wheat, and a billion dollars in silver is a big deal, so prices are easily moved.&nbsp; This can be corrected with position limits for sellers of futures contracts who can&#039;t demonstrate that they or their clients hold silver or have the ability to deliver future when the contract expires.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>Free markets don&#039;t mean lawless markets without rules.&nbsp; And government regulations aren&#039;t necessarily bad.&nbsp; The government regulated the commodities markets for decades with no bad side effects.&nbsp; I believe it was in the 90s that the commodity exchanges were permitted to self-regulate in the name of free trade, and now there are problems.&nbsp; Markets tend to work when they are large and have many players.&nbsp; But when a market can be dominated by a few huge speculators, the normal supply/demand price discovery process for physical goods is overwhelmed by the paper-hangers.</p><p><br /></p><p>Anyway, that&#039;s my view :loud: and it also seems to mirror what is happening.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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