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<p>[QUOTE="gxseries, post: 2982627, member: 4373"]In 2008 - good 10 years ago when oil prices were heading north towards US$150 / barrel, investors were hedging their bets, believing that it will head towards 200 as fears of lack of supply caused supply to spike up. One of my friends who worked in an investment firm believed this was going to happen arguing that people will still fork out more to drive as there was no viable alternative. Did not return back to the industry and kept his head very low after copping a nasty loss. </p><p><br /></p><p>In any financial analysis, it is always imperative to look at not just the current supply and demand but any likely disruptive technology that may affect future price. If you were a greeting card manufacturer, what has email done? If you were a cellphone manufacturer, what has smartphone done? Remember Kodak, Nokia, Blackberry? They were supposedly untouchable at one stage. </p><p><br /></p><p>In the short term, it is unlikely rhodium prices fall due to high operational costs. But at the same time, it is more than unlikely for it to reach it's peak of US$10,000 / ounce. I do not see cars disappearing overnight. People want to live comfortable lives but not at a premium. If installing a catalyst convert add another 100 dollars to a new car because of the rise of PGM prices - engineers will find solutions to drop prices. This is the brutal nature of a competitive environment. And I hold pride as an engineer. </p><p><br /></p><p>We will revisit this thread four years later - mark my words.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="gxseries, post: 2982627, member: 4373"]In 2008 - good 10 years ago when oil prices were heading north towards US$150 / barrel, investors were hedging their bets, believing that it will head towards 200 as fears of lack of supply caused supply to spike up. One of my friends who worked in an investment firm believed this was going to happen arguing that people will still fork out more to drive as there was no viable alternative. Did not return back to the industry and kept his head very low after copping a nasty loss. In any financial analysis, it is always imperative to look at not just the current supply and demand but any likely disruptive technology that may affect future price. If you were a greeting card manufacturer, what has email done? If you were a cellphone manufacturer, what has smartphone done? Remember Kodak, Nokia, Blackberry? They were supposedly untouchable at one stage. In the short term, it is unlikely rhodium prices fall due to high operational costs. But at the same time, it is more than unlikely for it to reach it's peak of US$10,000 / ounce. I do not see cars disappearing overnight. People want to live comfortable lives but not at a premium. If installing a catalyst convert add another 100 dollars to a new car because of the rise of PGM prices - engineers will find solutions to drop prices. This is the brutal nature of a competitive environment. And I hold pride as an engineer. We will revisit this thread four years later - mark my words.[/QUOTE]
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