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<p>[QUOTE="yakpoo, post: 1707874, member: 18157"]A while back, I was making an argument for collecting the First Spouse series (which I continue to believe is a real winner!). I did an analysis of the value (selling price) of modern gold commemoratives relative to their mintage. I found that only coins with mintages < 10,000 sold for a premium over bullion. As mintages decreased from there, prices (value) increased substantially.</p><p><br /></p><p>Since...<b>Value = Collector Base / Availability™ </b>(a "Yakpoo" algorithm), and Mintage has a lot to do with Availability, one would think the lower mintages should have a greater values (prices). However, you also need to take Collector Base into account. </p><p><br /></p><p>You mentioned that the Hawaii pucks sell for a premium. Since the mintage is about the same as the others of that year, the higher price (value) suggests a greater Collector Base for that design.</p><p><br /></p><p>Your numbers also suggest that the Collector Base for these Pucks is around 8k-10k (assuming some collectors hoard multiple pucks).</p><p><br /></p><p>I believe the higher price for the first year issues may also be due to sales limits (increased Distribution). There's a group of collectors that bought the first year issues (due to the hype), but didn't continue with the series. Although they didn't continue, they like the bullion aspect or designs of the pucks and don't care to sell...(another factor which affects Availability).</p><p><br /></p><p><b>Availability = Mintage / (Distribution / Sellers)™ </b>...(another "Yakpoo" algorithm).[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="yakpoo, post: 1707874, member: 18157"]A while back, I was making an argument for collecting the First Spouse series (which I continue to believe is a real winner!). I did an analysis of the value (selling price) of modern gold commemoratives relative to their mintage. I found that only coins with mintages < 10,000 sold for a premium over bullion. As mintages decreased from there, prices (value) increased substantially. Since...[B]Value = Collector Base / Availability™ [/B](a "Yakpoo" algorithm), and Mintage has a lot to do with Availability, one would think the lower mintages should have a greater values (prices). However, you also need to take Collector Base into account. You mentioned that the Hawaii pucks sell for a premium. Since the mintage is about the same as the others of that year, the higher price (value) suggests a greater Collector Base for that design. Your numbers also suggest that the Collector Base for these Pucks is around 8k-10k (assuming some collectors hoard multiple pucks). I believe the higher price for the first year issues may also be due to sales limits (increased Distribution). There's a group of collectors that bought the first year issues (due to the hype), but didn't continue with the series. Although they didn't continue, they like the bullion aspect or designs of the pucks and don't care to sell...(another factor which affects Availability). [B]Availability = Mintage / (Distribution / Sellers)™ [/B]...(another "Yakpoo" algorithm).[/QUOTE]
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