Puck "Cents"

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Phil Ham, May 11, 2013.

  1. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I've been looking at the collector edition hockey pucks and trying to make sense of their value versus their rarity. Obviously, the selling price of the Hawaian puck is out of whack but it isn't the only oddity in this series. The 2010 pucks seem reasonably valued, the 2011 pucks seem under valued, and the 2012 pucks are all over the place. Also, it doesn't appear that Puerto Rico is getting much respect by us (US numismatists). Below is a quick summary of the pucks, their mintage, and current value based on everyone's favorite price guide (ebay). Your thoughts are encouraged.

    Hot Springs (NP1) $280 27,000
    Yellowstone (NP2) $280 27,000
    Yosemite (NP3) $250 27,000
    Grand Canyon (NP4) $260 26,019
    Mount Hood (NP5) $245 26,928

    Gettysburg (NP6) $250 24,625
    Glacier (NP7) $220 20,856
    Olympic (NP8) $220 18,398
    Vicksburg (NP9) $220 18,594
    Chickasaw (NP10) $220 16,827

    El Yungue (NQ0) $260 17,314
    Chaco Culture (NQ1) $220 17,146
    Acadia (NQ2) $320 14,978
    Hawaii (NQ3) $520 14,863
    Denali (NQ4) $260 15,225
    stewart dandis likes this.
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  3. statequarterguy

    statequarterguy Love Pucks

    Nice the way they’re holding and increasing their value, even with silver “tanking”. Shows with these low mintages, there’s still enough demand to keep them up there. If/when demand increases, they’re going to the moon.
    One Mans Trash likes this.
  4. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    A while back, I was making an argument for collecting the First Spouse series (which I continue to believe is a real winner!). I did an analysis of the value (selling price) of modern gold commemoratives relative to their mintage. I found that only coins with mintages < 10,000 sold for a premium over bullion. As mintages decreased from there, prices (value) increased substantially.

    Since...Value = Collector Base / Availability™ (a "Yakpoo" algorithm), and Mintage has a lot to do with Availability, one would think the lower mintages should have a greater values (prices). However, you also need to take Collector Base into account.

    You mentioned that the Hawaii pucks sell for a premium. Since the mintage is about the same as the others of that year, the higher price (value) suggests a greater Collector Base for that design.

    Your numbers also suggest that the Collector Base for these Pucks is around 8k-10k (assuming some collectors hoard multiple pucks).

    I believe the higher price for the first year issues may also be due to sales limits (increased Distribution). There's a group of collectors that bought the first year issues (due to the hype), but didn't continue with the series. Although they didn't continue, they like the bullion aspect or designs of the pucks and don't care to sell...(another factor which affects Availability).

    Availability = Mintage / (Distribution / Sellers)™ ...(another "Yakpoo" algorithm).
    Seattlite86 likes this.
  5. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I like Yakpoo alorithm. You could be right about this whole thing or you could be creating a algorithm that matches the current facts. On the good side, we should be able to validate your alorithm with additional data. With any luck, we'll have it completed prior to the next meeting of the Nobel prize committee.
  6. C Jay

    C Jay Member

    The tipping point seems to be around 16,000 units. The last 3 2012's sold out suddenly and took me by surprise. Guess I'll be paying some premiums, I don't see them coming down.
  7. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I'm guessing that the $170 selling price for the next puck will increase the sales volume. I paid $280 for the first year's pucks, $230 for the next two, $205 for the next six, and $230 for the next two. I think that the $170 price will gather some more interest.
  8. treehugger

    treehugger Well-Known Member

    I like the yakpoo algorithm also. Let me also introduce the treehugger principle.

    If I like the design, I want the coin regardless of how expensive it is. If I don't like the design, I don't care how inexpensive it is, I don't want the coin.

    As hard as it might be to believe there are others like me in the puck collecting community.

    Luckily for me, I'm not a big fan of the Hawaii design. That helped me save some big premium money.
    Troodon and MisterWD like this.
  9. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    Outstanding!!! The Treehugger Priciple™ is a key component of Collector Base. Now we need to identify the other principles that influence Collector Base...then we can begin projecting future prices for Mint products not yet released!

    Although treehugger doesn't (himself) care for the Hawaii design, empirical evidence suggests he's in the minority...based on the Treehugger Principle™.

  10. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I think that I will subscribe to the Treehugger Principle Newsletter. I will make a million by putting money where he tells me not too.
    GeorgeM likes this.
  11. treehugger

    treehugger Well-Known Member

    That is a very wise move, Phil. I can almost guarantee you that if making money in coins is high up on your objective list, do not ever take my advice on what to purchase.

    My only deliberate goal here is to obtain coins I enjoy for a given reason or another. I'd rather make my money in other areas in which I feel more comfortable.

    Just so you know, I'm not buying any of the 2013 West Point Silver Eagle set, so you may want to get yourself a few of those. Just a little contrarian tip for you.
  12. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    As you probably know treehugger, I was only kidding with my comment. I've already purchased the 2013 ASE set, which I still believe will only sell about 250k sets. It won't have the gross margain as the 2011 set or the Hawaii or Acadia puck, but I think it will eventually appreciate. Plus, I love my silver eagles. I must have at least one set.
  13. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    Below is the latest update on the pucks. Only Rushmore remains available at the mint. Based on the current value and initial sales price, 2010 was a bad investment, 2011 was break even, 2012 varied on the puck, and 2013 was a good investment. Hawaii has the highest value at $650 and the lowest mintage at 14,863.

    2010 (Average Sales Price of $280)

    Hot Springs (NP1) $230 27,000
    Yellowstone (NP2) $230 27,000
    Yosemite (NP3) $230 27,000
    Grand Canyon (NP4) $230 26,019
    Mount Hood (NP5) $215 26,928
    2011 (Average Sales Price of $215)

    Gettysburg (NP6) $230 24,625
    Glacier (NP7) $215 20,856
    Olympic (NP8) $230 18,398
    Vicksburg (NP9) $220 18,594
    Chickasaw (NP10) $220 16,827
    2012 (Average Sales Price of $215)

    El Yungue (NQ0) $220 17,314
    Chaco Culture (NQ1) $195 17,146
    Acadia (NQ2) $350 14,978
    Hawaii (NQ3) $650 14,863
    Denali (NQ4) $275 15,225

    2013 (Average Sales Price of $155)

    White Mountains (NQ5) $180 20, 534
    Perry's Victory (NQ6) $180 17,719
    Great Basin (NQ7) $180 17,809
    Fort McHenry (NQ8) $180 19,634
    Mount Rushmore (NQ9) $155 21,135 (still selling)
  14. statequarterguy

    statequarterguy Love Pucks

    Even though an internet search still shows these mintages/sales figures, Coin World (8/5/2013, page 40) reported most of the P sales figures have been adjusted down a little, making 4 of them lower than the Hawaii. The 4 lower ones are Chaco at 13,902, Denali at 13,831, Acadia at 14,716, and Chickasaw at 14,807. Hawaii held at 14,863. Apparently the market hasn't heard this or doesn't care.

    Here’s a link:http://editions.amospublishing.com/WDCN/default.aspx?d=20130805
  15. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I would like to know the real numbers. I was basing mine on the last US Mint Sales Report from Coin Update (June 2013) with the 2012 mintages that had the higher numbers. It is hard to believe that the numbers on the Chickasaw (2011), Chaco Culture and Denali were so far off. If the mintages were that low, we should expect an increase in value due to their comparative rarity.

  16. statequarterguy

    statequarterguy Love Pucks

    Yeah, me too! I would expect the mintages to decline as they're audited, but this wouldn't be the first time Coin World was wrong.
  17. McBlzr

    McBlzr Sr Professional Collector

    100_4070.jpg 100_4072.jpg

    Fort McHenry is neat looking.

    I waited to late to get Denali from the Mint, so I paid a premium on eBay, but I had $50 in eBay Bucks to offset the price.
    This series has been a real rollercoaster ride on prices & mintages.
  18. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I've bought them all. I love this series. I don't know if it will appreciate but it is fun to collect!
  19. statequarterguy

    statequarterguy Love Pucks

    Me too, have them all. As for appreciation, doesn't matter to me either, these things are works of art. But, talk about mintages low enough to have POTENTIAL, phew!
  20. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    It is almost enough to change your name to the ATBguy:)
  21. Mr Roots

    Mr Roots Underneath The Bridge

    In collectables a mintage of 10,000 is huge and a general rule of thumb is that anything sold as a collectable will never be.
    Troodon and wmichael like this.
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