Prices can go down

Prices and venues were being discussed on a thread:

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/very-unhappy-with-naville-numismatics.297276/page-3#post-2756267

when Doug wrote this above. So, I am starting off this thread with this example.


This quadrans of Nerva (AD 96-98) is 16 mm and 2.53 grams.
IMP NERVA CAES AVG, modius with four ears of grain
winged caduceus
Sear 3066. RIC II Nerva 113. MBC 148

I bought it in CNG's e-auction 118 in July 2005 for a total of $99, including shipping.
There it is noted as ex Classical Numismatic Group 53 (15 March 2000), lot 1404. The PR was $200+10%.

The same coin sold 5 years later, with the same firm, for less than half what it made the first time.

 

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Prices certainly can go down and do so all the time!

Here's a coin from today's CNG auction that was on my watch list. I bid on it but did not win it: https://cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=337321
The description mentions a previous sale date of September 2016 and a "hammer of $335" in that sale. Less than half a year later, we have the coin selling at less than half that price.

My casual observation is that when descriptions mention a previous hammer price, and the sale date was in the recent past (say, under 10 years), it's not only possible but likely that the coin will not be selling for more than that. How much of a discount the new buyer gets off the old price is probably going to be determined by how much the old buyer overpaid. And whether or not the new buyer got a bona fide deal? Regardless of the size of the discount he scored off the previous hammer, the only thing that really matters is the price he paid and the price that future buyers will be willing to pay when it comes to his turn to put the coin up on the block.

My basic takeaway : Don't buy coins in big auctions and expect to flip them in short order in the same big auctions for any kind of profit.

 

Here's one I won at auction about a year ago for GBP 600 (~EUR 690) before juice. It previously sold in a 2008 Rauch auction, where it hammered for EUR 1300. Not quite half, but close.

 

"juice".. hmm, bookie terms eh?

 

$79.50 in 1975 is $360.28 today adjusted for inflation.

I paid half less than 2 years ago (in terms of inflation). If someone bought this coin as an investment in 1975, should have put their money in a retirement account instead.

 

man... talk about runaway inflation!

 

Here's the other coin I bid on in today's CNG. This one I actually did win .



It's an Artuqid dirham citing the name of Saladin, struck AD 1187/8, the year Saladin won the seminal Battle of Hattin and captured the city of Jerusalem.

My hammer was $85. The auction stated its previous sale as Album 25, 19 May 2016, where it realized $160.

 

WOW @zumbly thats a great coin!

 

Yea, but that was Numismatic fine Arts. Perhaps the most expensive dealers in the world at the time. And that brings another point. Was the original sales price over-inflated? When buying from some dealers the answer is a resounding 'yes'.

 

Look again, NFA allegedly sold it for $75 and Joel Maltese allegedly tried to flip it for $79.50. Either way we can all agree this coin was quite a steep price in 1974-1975. What we will never know is if anyone actually paid those prices or not

Heck, even at the 50%+ discount I bought it for (adjusted for inflation) I feel like it was at the high end of it's fair retail price.That being said, it is not an easy coin to find. It may not be rare, but it's definitely far from common.

This one is on vcoins for $210. The ass behind my Roma is better than the ass on the Vcoins coin though, but it's otherwise comparable, I think.



Other than that one, there's only 1 other example on sale for me to try to compare prices. It's an appealing gF coin for only $115, but there is no getting around the fact that it is nowhere near as sharp as mine or the other example above.

With only 3 examples to compare, it's hard to say if I overpaid or got a good deal. The sample size is just too small.

 

Heres my Antoninus Pius Denarius i got last week again...

in November 2006, it sold for 150 Euros- ( converted to 200 US at that time) + the 15% buyers fee.. so 240 usd in 2006 + the inflation making it 291 US today,
but I paid less than $80




Also for going up in price, I remember seeing this one on CNG


(not mine)


It 2004 it sold for a hammer price of $185 (estimated price was $300)
in 2015 it sold for $3750 (estimated price was $200)

https://cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=51989

https://cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=278086

 

Here are 13 other examples and their sale prices:
https://www.cngcoins.com/Search.asp...R_TYPE_ID_2=1&SEARCH_IN_CONTAINER_TYPE_ID_4=1

I find the two most recent from 2016 an interesting comparison. They sold within 2 months of each other, one for $160 and the other for $380. Was the more expensive one worth that much more? Obviously so for someone, definitely not for me. We are just not going to make sense of coin prices because we'll never fathom what goes on in the crazy mind of the coin buyer.

 

Comments? Top one is mine. Rest are CNG from over the years. Check the link, view the images, and comment:

https://www.cngcoins.com/Search.asp...R_TYPE_ID_2=1&SEARCH_IN_CONTAINER_TYPE_ID_4=1

 

Here is a different pic of mine to aid you. What do you think? Should I have a talk with Civitas Galleries about mine and notify CNG about their coins?

 

We really can't compare two different examples of the same coin because we will never agree on the relative merits of a little wear or a little centering or surface differences. I don't have notes making it easy to find all such occurrences but what I was talking about is a specific example of a coin that makes multiple appearances. We also have to throw out examples of coins that were 'modified'. I have a coin that sold in 1987 for $725 +10% and again in 1991 for $109 but was cleaned by the 1987 buyer who did not like his coins toned (or infected with BD?). After 15 years it is looking better. Maybe someday it will be back to 1987 level? The 1987 photo is screened and copied from a catalog.

I would have sworn TIF sent me the Dattari Savio image of the coin but I must have lost it.

It is easier to track such things now that sales records are digital.
2012:

232, Lot: 310. Estimate $100.
Sold for $460. This amount does not include the buyer’s fee.

Diocletian. AD 284-305. Antoninianus (25mm, 3.35 g, 6h). Londinium (London) mint. Struck under Carausius, AD 287-293. Radiate and cuirassed bust right / Pax standing left, holding branch and sceptre; S-P/[MLXXI]. RIC V 5. VF, brown patina, a bit off-center.

2017:
ORDER DATE
May 22, 2017
ORDER TOTAL
US $175.00
Free shipping
Order DIOCLETIAN 287AD Londinium London Mint under Carausius RARE Roman Coin i58666
1 item sold by highrating_lowprice


DIOCLETIAN 287AD Londinium London Mint under Carausius RARE Roman Coin i58666
( 351976421334 )
Delivered on Fri, May 26

ITEM PRICE:
US $175.00

NFA in the 70's was not the same place as the later McNall era NFA even though McNall worked for Malter back then. I was able to buy coins in both eras but both required finding coins that most people did not want. I bought five coins from the NFA fall mail sale (not a numbered auction) and to this day consider them among the best money I ever spent on coins. I bid low on 30 coins and won 5. I do wish I had won those others.

The same rules still apply. Bid what you want to pay: no more, no less.

 

Well, I've notified Civitas Galleries to at least get an investigation going and see where this leads. I had a private chat with another member who also thought it was too much of a coincidence, and I'm reaching out for opinions to others.

Does this rise to the level of notifying CNG? After all, I didn't purchase the coin from them. Ther might be other buyers interested in the outcome of an investigation?

 

Notifying them of what?

 

That it's a little odd that looking at the 13 they've sold and mine, I can find what appear to be 4 coins that are die matches. Bing seems to think it odd too, and at least worth looking into.

The coins might all be genuine, but it doesn't hurt to inquire and look into it.You do have to admit it raises a few caution signs. Not that die matches can't be genuine, but so many makes you at least pause and think.

 

I must've missed something or not understood. What is your concern?

Edited: nevermind... I didn't see the message and answer addressing this question. Have you checked Crawford to see how many dies there were for this issue?

 

I don't have access to Crawford. Can we take this to private PM? I don't want to ruin thsi thread further with my coin concerns.

It is one of my favorite coins, and I hope it's ok as I'd rather keep it, but it's worth asking the question to be on the safe side. I do see some weirdness on the edge, but it could just be me freaking out at this point. Anyway, feel free to PM me. I don't want to hijack this thread further.