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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;desertgem, post: 1319328, member: 15199&quot;]I think the price/direction of PM for 2012 and maybe longer, will be determined in the next 10 days. If Friday, everything goes well for the Eurounion, US stocks will rise strongly, and money will go out of precious metals into stocks, and the US dollar will maintain similar to the Euro because they will be printing money also. Precious metal prices are a combination of supply /demand for industrial uses over cost of production&nbsp; and&nbsp; fear ( fear of inflation, geopolitical aggression, internal meltdown of the various governments, etc). SO everyone in &quot;reefer heaven&quot; looks bad for PM. I figure a drop of $150-350 over the year.</p><p><br /></p><p>However, if talks and deals collapse, Our stock market and the euro will drop again as people sell to protect with cash or precious metals. So the scenario for gold price increase would be strong, maybe $100-$300 increase over the year. A nuclear situation with Iran, North Korea, Israel, US, etc.) or a very hard landing of China&#039;s economy ( not unrealistic ) could raise the POG even more. IMO, and none of us ( including the bullion pundits) know for sure, but I would trade on these outcomes. Watch the news on Thursday night US time/ Friday European time for the current Big European showdown..</p><p><br /></p><p>Also, it is interesting to me to watch CDS rates. These are basically how much it costs to insure sovereign debt. 6 months ago, there were 5 European countries that were considered safer from credit default that the US, now the US is the least likely. China&nbsp; and Japan use to be about the same as United Kingdom, but now much worse. Greece is still horrible. Rather like car insurers using different rates for different degree of loses in&nbsp; certain city/states.</p><p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750" rel="nofollow">http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Jim[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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