Pre and Post Covid-19 Silver Premiums

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by asuphiphi, May 13, 2020.

  1. asuphiphi

    asuphiphi Active Member

    Hey guys,

    I've been out of the silver game for a few years and right now is probably not the best time to get back into it but I'd like to start with a nice base of information here. Today I found a place selling ~$3.75 over spot out the door (at $15.75 spot currently) and not sure if that's a good price now.

    1) What was the average premium over spot one can expect to pay for 1oz bars/rounds of silver PRE covid?

    2) What is the current average premium over spot one can expect to pay for 1oz bars/rounds of silver POST covid?

    Thank you!
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  3. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    Do you think$3.75 (23%) over $15.75 is a good deal? Silver has to increase by 23% for you to break even. When you sell do you think you might get a little bit under spot?
    baseball21 likes this.
  4. asuphiphi

    asuphiphi Active Member

    I understand that math. I'm just not sure what the norm was prior to covid so I don't have a reference point right now.
  5. Randy Abercrombie

    Randy Abercrombie Supporter! Supporter

    Prior to Covid there was plenty of silver out there barely above spot. My thing is ASE’s and pre-64 silver coins (mostly cull dollars). I would pay barely above spot for the ASE’s and never more than spot for the coins. I would wait it out before I jumped back in. I believe once this Covid thing is in the rear view mirror we will see plenty out there at spot levels again.
    asuphiphi and midas1 like this.
  6. asuphiphi

    asuphiphi Active Member

    Yeah I'm in no rush to boost my holdings. Last time I dumped was back when silver was at like $48/oz and held since then but haven't acquired either. I got a source (Bullion dealer locally) I'm going to check out tomorrow who told me he sells for 5% above spot but only has 8 rounds. Which imo isn't too bad at all.
  7. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer Well-Known Member

    That's a decent price point at this time.
    Pre-covid I was accustomed to paying $.79 to $.99 per oz over spot.
  8. Fender Bender

    Fender Bender Member

    I've been wondering the same thing myself about price before and after covid.

    Thanks for the info.
    Heavymetal and asuphiphi like this.
  9. asuphiphi

    asuphiphi Active Member

    Does that also include ASE's premiums pre covid? (Reply to Masterswimmer)
  10. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    BC, (before Covid), I would pay around spot for junk silver. Prices for rounds were around .50 over, and ASE $1.00 over around here. AC, they are up about $1.50-2.00 per ounce all around.

    Still, you have to think not only about premiums, but where you think the market is going. $15.xx is fairly low, so if your expectation is $40 silver wouldn't you kick yourself because you refused to buy $17 silver "because the premium is too high"?

    Think long term price points, not just focusing on premiums. In that light, even today's higher premiums are a little irrelevant.
    -jeffB likes this.
  11. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer Well-Known Member

    No I'm referring to bullion prices. ASE business strike premiums are higher than bullion. And ASE proof strike premiums are higher than business strike.

    The premiums I posted are what I was paying for 10oz bars.
  12. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Sure, but two things:

    1) Expectations don't amount to much. All I expect from PM prices is that nominal dollar prices will eventually rise because the dollar's value will eventually shrink. (These days, I'm not even 100% sure about that.) Inflation-based increases shouldn't matter, because other investments should track or beat inflation, and ideally so should your income.

    2) You should always plan for the possibility that you'll need to liquidate before you're ready, possibly immediately. If immediate liquidation implies a 30-40% haircut instead of the more usual 10%, it would make me more reluctant to do much buying or selling.
  13. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I disagree that expectations are irrelevant. The entire basis of investment theory is based upon expectations.

    I do not disagree with your expectations overall that you have stated here. My expectations are the same generally, but I am allowing for a possibility of a major downward shock in the future, a type that would be mitigated somewhat by some om holdings.

    So, two reasons I own PM. One, as an insurance policy on main investments, and second, I love to Scrooge McDuck it sometimes. :)
    -jeffB likes this.
  14. Brian Calvert

    Brian Calvert Active Member

    My view and a couple other local FINANCE gurus think Covid accounts for MAYBE 10% of the increased premium. On this site you tend to get MORE coin collectors opinions than Finance, or GOLD BUG. I an others, including Jim Rickards, Peter Schiff think Silver has a long way to go. It is being held down at all costs by investment banks, the FED, and those that want a digital currency. They want the mighty dollar to be the factor, 0% interest rates keep you spending and will wipe out the heartland, the poor, the working class.

    The dollar will be printed more, it has to be to meet the 18T of Loans in the international market wanting to come back. Treasurys will also NOT be bought by non american entities. This is the end game, or very close to it for the dollar.

    I only wonder what happens to all those American Coins with fabulous grades that people paid big bucks for when the dollar isnt even used anymore.
    GOLD and SILVER my friend... Buy it and hold it, you really cant lose. Wait for Land to drop 50% and then reap the rewards. Same thing as 2008 and twice as bad
    Covid isnt going anywhere until late 2021

    - Edited - You have to test healthy people for at least 6 months and expose them to the virus AFTER A VACCINE is developed. That is why the normal time line is 3 -4 years. 2 years is reaching. - Edited -
    Last edited by a moderator: May 16, 2020
  15. Brian Calvert

    Brian Calvert Active Member

    A 30 - 40% from here after the FED has printed 6T would require the Government to go absolutely full blown off the hook and allow the banksters... to ruin SILVER / GOLD as an entity. Yes, there should be some deflation because things are going to fall apart. That is what they will use to tell people things are cheaper. Yet, the things you NEED, FOOD for one will double in price and they wont mention it. They will only tell you when electronics, cars, homes, and land drop by 20% calling it the TIME TO BUY.
    We use to be sommewhat manipulated, now it is 24/7 lies and propagnada
  16. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer Well-Known Member

    Gone in 3....2.....1.....
    Last edited by a moderator: May 21, 2020
    charlietig likes this.
  17. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I was just talking about the current buy/sell spread, not about any actual price moves.
  18. Brian Calvert

    Brian Calvert Active Member

    I think it is GREAT that 30% of the American People live in a Virtual World. More REAL MONEY for me...
    - Edited -
    Last edited by a moderator: May 21, 2020
  19. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer Well-Known Member

    There is a time and place for politics, whether I agree with yours or not. CT specifically states in their terms of service that political discussions have no place on this forum and will not be tolerated.

    Since your join dated goes back to 2015 I'm guessing you already know this.
    Last edited by a moderator: May 21, 2020
  20. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member

    - Edited - printing money and doubling the deficit? sounds like something relevant in a bullion forum to me
    Last edited by a moderator: May 21, 2020
  21. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Here we go again, this has been being said for years and years and years, almost a decade now and was likely said before the last actual spike which isn't happening now

    No, no it's not. Not even remotely close.

    Guess we will find out in several hundreds if not thousands of years. No one alive today nor their kids or their kids kids etc will be alive to find out when the dollar isn't used anymore

    Yes, yes you can big time. Unless you time it perfectly they are horrible investments
    Last edited: May 20, 2020
    masterswimmer likes this.
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