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Message:: [QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1574486, member: 41665"]THIS is why I come here; to get exactly this information & perspective/opinion 'Why?'  I am convinced premiums have been falling and will fall further, but a trough will form and then ... only then... the PM prices will go parabolic.  Watch the premiums, they're the 'canary in the coal mine.'   I don't believe this is so, and this evaluation conflates different things.  Discussing refined product held privately (not ore-in-the-ground, corporate)1) There are lower retail mkt segments that will sell at x target regardless of timeframe.2) As lower-sell points are breached & liquidated, higher tiers (which may hold far less or 'hold more dear') may not rush to liquidate & 'meet demand' ; they may have a timeframe, instead. I have no idea where the breakpoints/timeframe combinations are for these different tiers.  But I think it's wrong to assume 'everyone' MUST sell at $35k./oz.  And Gold/Silver may simply "become scarce" because it was already sold (the imagined supply really isn't there.) I'm playing devil's advocate here, of course.  But I don't believe most Americans have ANY Gold anymore. Effectively and for all practical purpose, retail 'US Gold' has already been consolidated to serious collectors/bullionists and now trades exclusively among that niche demographic, at ~>$1,500./oz.  Who knows what sell-point(s) these holders require? (That's my two cents, obviously.)[/QUOTE]