Log in or Sign up
Coin Talk
Home
Forums
>
Coin Forums
>
Bullion Investing
>
POLL: IF the US Treasury ANNOUNCES A GOLD SALE, what %age will POG decline?
>
Reply to Thread
Message:
<p>[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1615514, member: 41665"]Recall the Hunt Bros. Silver Corner in 1979, the Govt-announced sale and aftermath (timeline and POS.) <b>The US govt sold ~ 1% of the stockpile, and the price cratered -43%!</b> </p><p>Suppose the effects of a govt-orchestrated raid/firesale in 2013 (like the 1981/2 plunge) <i>could </i>be much more rapid in the Age of the Internet: speed up the timeline below.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>April 2 1979: POS $ 7.46</b></p><p><b></b>4/9/79, Paul Sarnoff (Hunt Bros. collaborator/agent ContiCommodity Services) wrongly implied high POS was defensible by demand alone: <i>“<span style="color: #000000">Even if the Treasury sold off the nation's silver</span> hoard of 139.5 million ounces, which is unlikely, it would easily be absorbed by users in a short period." </i></p><p><i></i>September 3, 1979: POS $10.90</p><p>September 18, 1979: POS $18.30</p><p><span style="color: #000000">January 2, 1980: POS $39.95</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><b>January 17, 1980: POS +$ 50.</b></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><b></b>January 22, 1980: POS $34.</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">~Feb. 28, 1980: POS ~$30.</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">March 14, 1980: POS $21.</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #000000">March 25, 1980: POS $20.20</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #000000">March 26, 1980: POS $15.80</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #000000"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><b>July 22, 1981: POS$ 8.70</b></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><b></b>In July 1981, the Federal General Services Administration was authorized by Congress to sell 105 million ounces over a three year period; in September 1981 POS fell -11% as a result.</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">9/14/1981: POS $ 11.24</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">9/28/1981: POS $ 8.76</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">10/12/1981: POS $ 9.48</span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">"Christmas will </span><span style="color: #000000">arrive</span> this <span style="color: #000000">Wednesday for silver users</span>, hoarders and speculators. Oct. 14 Is when the General Services Administration, complying with congressional mandate, will begin selling most of the nation's remain hoard of silver in minimum lost of 8,000 ozt. It will be the first such federal sale since 1970. If all goes according to plan, the GSA will sell 1.15 million ounces at each monthly auction, or 46.5 million ounces of the remaining 139.5 oz in the West Point and San Francisco depositories" </p><p><br /></p><p><b>June 21, 1982: POS $4.98</b></p><p><b></b>The GSA sales failed, bids too low; <b>only about 2 million ounces of the more than 11 million ounces of silver offered in the Fall 1981 were sold.</b> In June 1982, POS hit a cyclical nadir @$4.98, 10% of the $48 peak just 30 months earlier. </p><p><br /></p><p>More 1981/2 Silver news items: </p><p><a href="http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361">http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Background to the Hunt Bros. Silver Corner, 1979/80:</p><p><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/170390-jason-tillberg/144117-the-hunt-brothers-how-they-did-it-and-what-we-can-learn-from-it" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/170390-jason-tillberg/144117-the-hunt-brothers-how-they-did-it-and-what-we-can-learn-from-it" rel="nofollow">http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/170390-jason-tillberg/144117-the-hunt-brothers-how-they-did-it-and-what-we-can-learn-from-it</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Futures Price Chart, 1981:</p><p><a href="http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SV/1981/9/linewchart.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SV/1981/9/linewchart.html" rel="nofollow">http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SV/1981/9/linewchart.html</a>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1615514, member: 41665"]Recall the Hunt Bros. Silver Corner in 1979, the Govt-announced sale and aftermath (timeline and POS.) [B]The US govt sold ~ 1% of the stockpile, and the price cratered -43%![/B] Suppose the effects of a govt-orchestrated raid/firesale in 2013 (like the 1981/2 plunge) [I]could [/I]be much more rapid in the Age of the Internet: speed up the timeline below. [B]April 2 1979: POS $ 7.46 [/B]4/9/79, Paul Sarnoff (Hunt Bros. collaborator/agent ContiCommodity Services) wrongly implied high POS was defensible by demand alone: [I]“[COLOR=#000000]Even if the Treasury sold off the nation's silver[/COLOR] hoard of 139.5 million ounces, which is unlikely, it would easily be absorbed by users in a short period." [/I]September 3, 1979: POS $10.90 September 18, 1979: POS $18.30 [COLOR=#000000]January 2, 1980: POS $39.95 [B]January 17, 1980: POS +$ 50. [/B]January 22, 1980: POS $34. ~Feb. 28, 1980: POS ~$30. March 14, 1980: POS $21. [COLOR=#000000]March 25, 1980: POS $20.20 March 26, 1980: POS $15.80 [/COLOR] [B]July 22, 1981: POS$ 8.70 [/B]In July 1981, the Federal General Services Administration was authorized by Congress to sell 105 million ounces over a three year period; in September 1981 POS fell -11% as a result. 9/14/1981: POS $ 11.24 9/28/1981: POS $ 8.76 10/12/1981: POS $ 9.48 "Christmas will [/COLOR][COLOR=#000000]arrive[/COLOR] this [COLOR=#000000]Wednesday for silver users[/COLOR], hoarders and speculators. Oct. 14 Is when the General Services Administration, complying with congressional mandate, will begin selling most of the nation's remain hoard of silver in minimum lost of 8,000 ozt. It will be the first such federal sale since 1970. If all goes according to plan, the GSA will sell 1.15 million ounces at each monthly auction, or 46.5 million ounces of the remaining 139.5 oz in the West Point and San Francisco depositories" [B]June 21, 1982: POS $4.98 [/B]The GSA sales failed, bids too low; [B]only about 2 million ounces of the more than 11 million ounces of silver offered in the Fall 1981 were sold.[/B] In June 1982, POS hit a cyclical nadir @$4.98, 10% of the $48 peak just 30 months earlier. More 1981/2 Silver news items: [URL]http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361[/URL] Background to the Hunt Bros. Silver Corner, 1979/80: [URL]http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/170390-jason-tillberg/144117-the-hunt-brothers-how-they-did-it-and-what-we-can-learn-from-it[/URL] Futures Price Chart, 1981: [URL]http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SV/1981/9/linewchart.html[/URL][/QUOTE]
Your name or email address:
Do you already have an account?
No, create an account now.
Yes, my password is:
Forgot your password?
Stay logged in
Coin Talk
Home
Forums
>
Coin Forums
>
Bullion Investing
>
POLL: IF the US Treasury ANNOUNCES A GOLD SALE, what %age will POG decline?
>
Home
Home
Quick Links
Search Forums
Recent Activity
Recent Posts
Forums
Forums
Quick Links
Search Forums
Recent Posts
Competitions
Competitions
Quick Links
Competition Index
Rules, Terms & Conditions
Gallery
Gallery
Quick Links
Search Media
New Media
Showcase
Showcase
Quick Links
Search Items
Most Active Members
New Items
Directory
Directory
Quick Links
Directory Home
New Listings
Members
Members
Quick Links
Notable Members
Current Visitors
Recent Activity
New Profile Posts
Sponsors
Menu
Search
Search titles only
Posted by Member:
Separate names with a comma.
Newer Than:
Search this thread only
Search this forum only
Display results as threads
Useful Searches
Recent Posts
More...