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Message:: [QUOTE="medoraman, post: 1611838, member: 26302"]My only point. Without knowing the entire background of someone's "calls" and how often they are right versus wrong, such "calls" are meaningless. Its the oldest trick in the book. I have related this before, but I am sure others have not read it. In the 1920's a man devised a brilliant scheme. He mailed out 10,000 letters to investors, half "guaranteeing" the market would be up next week, the other half down. THe next week he mailed 5000 letters to those who happened to get the "correct" prediction. Next week mailed out 2500 letters. The fourth week he mailed out 1250 letters and said, "I have proven to you I can call the market. I have done so correctly for the past 3 weeks. If you want to know what the market will do next week mail me $1000. You want to be a "guru" and sell newsletters for a living? Make predictions. Make them often. After a year or so you can go back and "prove" to people how you made the "right call and predicted the market". Just don't bring up the 90% of "predictions" that were wrong, but keep bringing up the 10% OVER AND OVER until someone believes you. Then sell subscriptions to your "newsletters" and books, or start a mutual fund. I am NOT saying this is happening here, just saying everyone needs to always have these thoughts in their mind, how these "predictions" can be manipulated, and how you should never be swayed by such things unless you have proven it to yourself the person IS above average in predicting market movements. To do otherwise is simply lining yourself up to be another sucker. Edit: Btw, this goes for all investment areas, its not limited at all to PM. Real Estate, stocks, bonds, all of these areas have "gurus". There truly have been knowledgable people in all of these areas, but a lot more hucksters. I am simply a big enough jerk to challenge anyone labeled a "guru" and demand proof before I will accept that fact.[/QUOTE]

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