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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1611051, member: 41665&quot;]Seasonal 2013 Gold demand (global) looks weak, disappointing.&nbsp; These factor (below) could erode POG further, but not alone &gt; -10%; more like -6%.&nbsp; This is reasonable and moderate downside at this stage in the Bull, nothing worrisome.</p><p><u><br /></u></p><p><u>Spotlight: India</u>&nbsp; <b>Bearish retail outlook</b> on Indian demand/mkt regs.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/g-chandrashekhar/a-disappointing-start-for-gold-in-the-new-year/article4279987.ece" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/g-chandrashekhar/a-disappointing-start-for-gold-in-the-new-year/article4279987.ece" rel="nofollow">http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/g-chandrashekhar/a-disappointing-start-for-gold-in-the-new-year/article4279987.ece</a></p><p><br /></p><p><u>Spotlight: China</u>&nbsp; Bullish (w/ 1 month HK demand doubling) but the Chinese New Year seems tepid = WEAK SEASONAL DEMAND? </p><p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/gold-imports-by-china-from-hong-kong-double-on-economic-recovery.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/gold-imports-by-china-from-hong-kong-double-on-economic-recovery.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/gold-imports-by-china-from-hong-kong-double-on-economic-recovery.html</a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><u>Worst Case Scenario</u>: onset of US paper asset-deflation --&nbsp; triggered by any major crisis/exogenous event, now -- will quickly &amp; sharply drive down&nbsp; POG ~-20% &gt;- 25% now through July/August.&nbsp; Gold will not prove a total safe haven, though it should outperform US stocks in this case and recover more quickly on any upside 3Q 2013/4.&nbsp;&nbsp; Big POG dips are big buying opps, yet.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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