POG: Whither Gold, in the short term? (Slight Decline in 2013, I suppose)

To extend this thread: http://www.cointalk.com/t217473-6/#post1603617

Marc Faber (a gold-bug who called the March 6th 2009 market bottom & monster rally to the day) sees greater downside for Gold in 2013. He's still a Gold Bull, too.
http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-10-gold-correction-2013-1

TARGET: $ 1485. This is also a 'loose' number I anticipate as the probable Low POG in 2013. Based on Seasonality, I'd guess ~MARCH/APRIL or ~JUNE?JULY 2013.

(Exogenous events or major crises developing would easily trump seasonality, however- a deflationary belch could tank markets, and a Dollar Panic might likewise boost Gold, etc. No bets there!)

 

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I honestly feel, in my humble opinion, that all these analysts are trying to convince the general public to sell their gold holdings in order to create an artificial gold plunge. Then, they'll just buy, buy, buy. Trust your gut. Gold isn't dropping below $1500 in 2013. The debt limit and possible downgrading of the US credit rating could create a major panic in the markets, sending gold over $2000/oz. If it does, keep this thread and I'll send you a bottle of Blue Label for being wrong. If it doesn't you can thank me in 2014. Oh, and what would happen in the markets if the US actually does mint that $3,000,000,000,000 coin? I can't imagine foreign governments (and subsequently the lenders to the US ) taking that move on the chin.

 

You don't need a "humble opinion" but what analysts? Use the Search Function here, I've already posted many Paper-Bug analysts 2013 Gold targets that are much much higher than Gold-Bug Faber's or mine. (Isn't that plunge theory abit, um, paranoid? You honestly think I can move the markets?! lol)

Not calling where Gold ends in 2013 either, but I've said before: I suppose 2013 will look more like 1975 or 1976 than 1979.

Also: I had to look up "Blue Label." You're kind to offer to send me ~$200. but the presumption that I enjoy alcohol is mistaken. A 1/10 oz Gold American Eagle forwarded instead? Thank you, sir!

 

Seasonal 2013 Gold demand (global) looks weak, disappointing. These factor (below) could erode POG further, but not alone > -10%; more like -6%. This is reasonable and moderate downside at this stage in the Bull, nothing worrisome.

Spotlight: India Bearish retail outlook on Indian demand/mkt regs.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...t-for-gold-in-the-new-year/article4279987.ece

Spotlight: China Bullish (w/ 1 month HK demand doubling) but the Chinese New Year seems tepid = WEAK SEASONAL DEMAND?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...om-hong-kong-double-on-economic-recovery.html

Worst Case Scenario: onset of US paper asset-deflation -- triggered by any major crisis/exogenous event, now -- will quickly & sharply drive down POG ~-20% >- 25% now through July/August. Gold will not prove a total safe haven, though it should outperform US stocks in this case and recover more quickly on any upside 3Q 2013/4. Big POG dips are big buying opps, yet.

 

So, has Mr. Faber ever "called" market actions before? How many? How many were correct? What is his prediction average?

I ask these questions since the modus operendi of "market gurus" is to make a lot of predictions. Then, they can cherry pick the one or two that just happen to be true and truthfully say they "called" it.

A dead clock is right twice a day as well. How much more accurate is Mr. Faber? Without knowing ALL of his predictions and his accuracy rate, its awfully misleading to brag about the one he may of accidentally called correctly.

 

A blind squirrel will occasionally find an acorn.

 

It's not "misleading" to state the truth, only to dissimulate otherwise. I claimed nothing for track-record either - that's entirely your straw-man. Faber doesn't have to be perfect either!

In the kingdom of the blind, you'd obviously stone the one-eyed. Shame on you both.

 

Even a blind squirrel will occasionally make a worthwhile post.........nah....never mind, I take that back.

 

Dude, I am pointing out to both you and any readers here the OLDEST trick in the "market prediction" book. You want identical examples from the 1920's?

THAT was the purpose of my post. I was not trying to insult you sir, I was trying to put that "fact" in perspective. Maybe its a "fact" he made that prediction, but it also very well be a "fact" he makes a prediction every other month, and 99% of the are wrong. Those "facts" would also have a bearing on how people view the commentator, no?

"Shame on me" for bringing intelligence and historical knowledge to the conversation? The "shame" is an assertion unsupported.

 

You sound unhinged, medoraman. Up the dosage, please.

Faber expressed his opinion on teevee, whatever. It's NOT a "prediction" carved in stone: only you are so foolish to read it that way. He doesn't need to be perfect, nor do I or you or anyone else. Your assertion/insinuation that he's always wrong is what's bogus, misleading, dissimulating.

More people believe & trust him than you, btw. I gather you're not collecting 3% in fees either, lol

Sorry: I call it like I see it.

 

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Maybe , but with much more respect. Right or wrong, argumentation with insults, will tend to reflect badly on you. So lighten up, if you can't take disagreement without such interchange, you will be limited. This goes for everyone !

​

 

I'm not a huge Faber fan, but I generally like to hear his perspective, and he seems to know his stuff better than the vast majority.

Regarding this article in particular he has done what so many fail to do and quantified his reasoning. Kudos to him for that. Now let's get into the details

His first point is that the dollar will strengthen because it's not in as bad of shape as the Euro. This is the opposite of what Peter Schiff thinks in his recent YouTube video titled "Congress Sells America Down the River to Avoid the Fiscal Cliff". Schiff believes the Euro situation has stabilized for the time being (my assumption for this reasoning being that the troika is content to let Greece restructure their debt indefinitely), and I tend to agree with him on this one. With the US debt ceiling on the brink again Schiff thinks the spotlight will be back on us after 2012 focused the red dot on the EU. Another thing is that Japan just recently stated they would put their new inflationary policy to use by buying up ESM bonds which bodes better for the EU than the US in the near term. Ultimately though, the US can print away its debt and the EU nations cannot because they have to defer their central banking to the ECB. However, Greece has essentially dropped the Euro for barter currencies and so there is plenty of support for Faber in this regard as well that the Euro may just lose support at the grassroots level.

Faber's next point is that he is anticipating a rough season for the stock markets in 2013 due to deterioration of technicals, which I would like to see specifics on but we didn't get it in this case. This is however on par with what Lindsey Williams has been saying, and he called both $150 oil and the subsequent $50 oil marks due to his admitted inside information which should be taken with a grain of salt, but his track record is stellar. If stocks do sell off then paper gold and silver would sell off too in order to scrounge up funds to cover the losses. I find this scenario relatively likely and it would support Faber's gold call here as well regardless of the EU/USD dynamic. It's also worth noting Faber thinks that this would be a buying opportunity! Any dip in precious metals means silver supplies deplete that much more quickly too.

 

Faber does a lot of talking, but I never get the feeling he does any real analysis. It's all shoot from the hip gut feeling. So maybe he will be right and maybe not, but I would want to have more than someone's gut feeling before putting any money into something.

Lindsay Williams made his two good oil calls to 150 then 50, but he also forecasted a financial collapse and 200 oil in 2012 and that never materialized. So maybe he has a source, and maybe he got lucky.

Basically, I don't like any investment method that is based on prediction [because nobody is very good at it for very long]. I'm a value investor at heart.

 

Exactly! And thank you very much for that on-topic commentary.

Faber's floor was $1,400.: a shocker for some here but prudent risk to understand. The latest would suggest a significant buying opp @ USD $1,550.-1,450., and perhaps hedging your stash with an inverse Gold ETF in the meanwhile.

 

Pastor Williams is simply going off of what he is being told, and has been told as well as relayed to his followers since then that the 2012 timeline was delayed by Gaddafi's resistance in Libya, but I agree that prediction based analysis is unreliable. He could get bad info, and things can change. I would however differentiate that from probability based analysis. Also there are likely those who are aware of what Williams is doing and could very well attempt to discredit him by altering the plan that he was told. Still, unreliable, but nobody else dared make those oil calls either. They weren't good calls, they were unbelievable.

 

It's also possible that he is a fraud. How would anyone know? He doesn't really have much of a track record, but just one call that oil would go up a lot and then go back down. Most everything else he's ever said has been wrong. But who knows.

 

My only point.

Without knowing the entire background of someone's "calls" and how often they are right versus wrong, such "calls" are meaningless. Its the oldest trick in the book.

I have related this before, but I am sure others have not read it. In the 1920's a man devised a brilliant scheme. He mailed out 10,000 letters to investors, half "guaranteeing" the market would be up next week, the other half down. THe next week he mailed 5000 letters to those who happened to get the "correct" prediction. Next week mailed out 2500 letters. The fourth week he mailed out 1250 letters and said, "I have proven to you I can call the market. I have done so correctly for the past 3 weeks. If you want to know what the market will do next week mail me $1000.

You want to be a "guru" and sell newsletters for a living? Make predictions. Make them often. After a year or so you can go back and "prove" to people how you made the "right call and predicted the market". Just don't bring up the 90% of "predictions" that were wrong, but keep bringing up the 10% OVER AND OVER until someone believes you. Then sell subscriptions to your "newsletters" and books, or start a mutual fund.

I am NOT saying this is happening here, just saying everyone needs to always have these thoughts in their mind, how these "predictions" can be manipulated, and how you should never be swayed by such things unless you have proven it to yourself the person IS above average in predicting market movements.

To do otherwise is simply lining yourself up to be another sucker.

Edit: Btw, this goes for all investment areas, its not limited at all to PM. Real Estate, stocks, bonds, all of these areas have "gurus". There truly have been knowledgable people in all of these areas, but a lot more hucksters. I am simply a big enough jerk to challenge anyone labeled a "guru" and demand proof before I will accept that fact.

 

Aren't we all so glad to be told by dad "Don't believe everything you hear?" And that's both informative and on-topic, of course.

Two other very astute calls Faber made were in 1987 & 2007; that's why HE gets quoted on Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afYGFBA.L8PQ
But if you're a sucker for cheap character assassinations (like #5) you won't bother considering that track-record anyhow.

Cheap character assassinations, dad, don't make you look any smarter either.

 

The problem is that Faber constantly makes predictions. So using your timeline, he made two fantastic calls 20 years apart. This does not make anything he says useful or actionable. And so far this year his gold predition is completely wrong. Predictions are a coin flip when not accompanied by analysis.

 

Strawman, again.

Reducio ad absurdum? 10 days does not make a year, obv.

Faber is constantly asked his opinion, which he generously shares. He's paid to read tea-leaves; it's irrelevant that he's NOT ALWAYS correct. His opinion counts alot more than yours - that's his "problem" here.

If you have nothing intelligent/useful to add, why post? It's simply contentious, and another calculated attempt to derail the topic.