Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by mpcusa, Aug 2, 2017.
Thanks.. I kept seeing the other..
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I think every body in the bullion forum is excited about this, i know i am
Not crazy about the design however but you cant have everything.
Just me mindful of the future markets. 80% of the worlds palladium demand goes into auto catalysis. Many world governments, including China, have set very aggressive goals for EV adoption. Palladium and Platinum have no place in an EV world. Much of the global auto industry growth over the next decade or so is likely to come from the EV segment, especially in China. I wouldn't get too heavy into PGMs.
I am in for a Palladium eagle just to have one. Beyond that, I'm out of the PGM market unless or until they become incredibly cheap to own.
Yeah I hear you man. It's tough being a collector that's trying to make logical investment moves haha. I.e. The silver Kruger! But that was more collectible for me than for bullion. Same with the proof privy maples I've been picking up. They aren't the price I'd pay for the metal but I like the coin.
I still stand with the platinum now for long term though. I'm about where @Speedbump is and think the auto market will cause the palladium to dive long term, but would own one to own one.
Platinum is in danger as well, especially with the impending implosion of the diesel segment. Platinum has come down a lot over the past couple years, but still seems high based on its applicability. Platinum eagles, especially fractionals, had sky high premiums and were difficult to find just a couple years ago. Premiums have calmed down some and availability is more wide spread. A firm indication on slowing interest, at least in the US platinum bullion product.
I really do love the Platinum eagle design. Liberties RBF is pretty epic IMO. Sadly, I just dont have confidence in the metal long term.
I honestly haven't heard or seen anything on the diesel segment imploding.
IMO I think we will see gas power phase out faster than diesel. The transportation sector has shifted more towards cleaner energy solutions but the heavy freight logistics industry is very much reliant on it. Semi tractors, trains and ships have a long, long way ahead before they can utilize all electric means.
The emissions system on clean diesel (hybrid) requires more catalyst than the standard diesel systems. Meeting "clean" guidelines and labeling as "green" is more of a smoke-and-mirrors act than actual increased energy efficiency. It's the emissions expulsion that allows the labeling as such. They are using less diesel, but what is still being consumed needs no be "cleaned" that much more to meet guidelines.
As far as exploring the metals needed to manufacture the cells used in the hybrid and all-electric solutions for long term? Two happy thumbs up. But as far as finding bullion made of those metals and being able to store the amount that would value as an investment? I have no idea, but the idea has sparked some interest and I'm going to do some research on that. I would love to have a stack of Lithium Maples in my safe, but until that's an option I'm interested in finding what is
VW and its various brands are abandoning diesel research in favor of full EV. In the wake of the VW scandal, Europe is questioning diesel in general with talks of banning the sale of diesel cars all together. Manufacturers are obviously not too happy with this as it was the EU governments that pushed them to make so many diesel cars in the first place. Diesel is not clean and there isn't really anything you can do to fix that. It produces a lot more NOx and particulate than gasoline which was not a metric anyone cared about because it wasn't a global warming concern. NOx and particulate are heath issues however and contribute to smog. This isn't really new science and has been the case for a long time. Sadly, the general public only started caring after the whole VW nightmare.
Heavy trucking is the next segment prime for EV investments. Tesla is actually launching their semi product this fall. Trucking is arguably far more important in improving city micro climates than gasoline cars as explained above.
Even if we say that heavy transport (shipping and rail) keeps with fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, road going transport will shift significantly to EV within this generation. Projections show that more than half of new cars sold by 2040 will be fully EV. With the way technology has been advancing, recent government mandates, and the consumer's willingness to consider something new, it may be a lot sooner than that. The transitioning of road vehicles away from fossil fuels would be a massive hit to the PGM market. With recycling, whats above ground now would be more than enough to satisfy the remaining demand.
Investment is battery materials might be difficult or impractical. Pure lithium is not something you want to have around. It oxidizes very easily and sometime, quite violently. It similar to sodium, if you remember high school chemistry when the teacher tossed sodium into a pot of water... Lithium ion batteries contain mostly nickle, copper, and aluminum. There is sometimes a little cobalt sprinkled in as well. You would be better off with mining stocks in companies that dig the stuff up.
I think the biggest challenge to over come for full EV vehicles is there lack of
Range, a good comparison would be L.A to Las Vegas since i go back and fourth once or twice a month, The Tesla Model S has a range of 244 miles and the Chevy
Bolt is at around 250, numbers like that arent going to get the job done especially
when the trip above is 277, and the access to charging stations especially out
In the desert are few and far between not sure i would risk that trip ! maybe
You could find a quick charge station but still your waiting around, and not a very
I would say most gasoline operated vehicles are in the 360 plus range, my chevy 2017 Chevy Cruz 1.4 Turbo will go 390 Plus !
So unless you have another car for freeway trips, which kind of defeats the purpose
Anyway, i think any panic about going full EV, is far away, not that it wont happen
Just allot of obsticles to over come, like the above and lets not forget about the price.
A Model S owner was able to hyper-mile 670 miles from his 100D.
The new Model 3 has a battery pack option rated for 310 miles. They use new battery cells with significantly higher energy density than the Model S. The car is also about 30% more efficient than the Model S. This means they get better range from a physically smaller battery pack. Battery tech is consintly evolving. The range you see on EVs this year will not be the ranges you see next year or the year after.
Advancements in high voltage DC fast charging are also making recharges faster. Right now you can get about 170 additional miles out of 30 minutes of fast charging on the Model 3. Build-out of systems capable of performing this in under 10 minutes are in development by many companies. That's faster than your typical family bathroom stop. Tesla's charging network is also growing very fast. There are already stations in Primm and Barstow. They are adding two more stations in Barstow and a large 40 stall station in Baker. Pleanty of opportunities to stop should you need to top off for a few minutes. Stopping for a bathroom break, lunch, or whatever offers more than enough time to extend for range if you have a lower range car.
That,s allot of miles from one charge, however is that realistic for everybody ?
And i would have to ask what steps were taken to get that and how realistic
was that for a normal person to achieve ?
Additionally would that quick charge be from everyday 110 V, 220 V would be
Very difficult to find, sure harder then a gas station...LOL
Baker would be a must have, small area easy to find
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