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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;medoraman, post: 1438389, member: 26302&quot;]The really hard part is to actually determine if someone is simply lucky or skilled. It takes at least 7 years of data to make a statistically meaningful statement about a fund managers skill. The bad news is most fund managers only manage a fund for about 3 years on average. </p><p><br /></p><p>I agree with both of you really. I say skill in knowing how to not follow packs, analyze economic and industry data and come up with the right conclusion, etc. However, even if you get all of that right, there are unknown information today that will dramatically affect future outcomes. That is where the luck is involved. </p><p><br /></p><p>This is why I usually prefer value stocks. I like to buy stocks that not much is expected of them, then if the luck happens to be good they go up, if the luck is bad well it was pretty much priced into the stock to begin with.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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