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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;geekpryde, post: 1438189, member: 36248&quot;]You&#039;d be suprised.&nbsp;&nbsp; hundreds of scientific studies have proved how utterly horrible humans are at timing markets.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; You are simply honest enough to admit what most people wont.&nbsp; &nbsp; After reading about 20 books on the history of finance, EMT (efficient market theory), MPT (modern portfolio theory), and passive index investing, I am comfortably able to state <b>&quot;I have no idea where the market it going, and neither does anyone else&quot;.&nbsp;&nbsp; </b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p>Now, I enjoy coin collecting, and I like and own silver coins.&nbsp;&nbsp; I dont plan on timing silver purchases, I simply buy what I can afford, what I like, and what I feel comfortable with.&nbsp;&nbsp; Silver could go to $100 or it could go to $10, and I am not going to freak out, panic, or buy and sell because some dude a cointalk gave me a &quot;hot tip&quot;.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The OP asked for a prediction, so here it is:&nbsp; 50% of the people who time PM purchases will guess right and 50% of them will be dead wrong.&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Over time, 99.9% of people cannot consistently be &quot;lucky&quot; aka correct.&nbsp;&nbsp; <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie5" alt=":confused:" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>p.s.&nbsp; This is a total side comment, (please dont let it derail your thread):&nbsp; &nbsp; I emphatically recommend people read:</p><p><br /></p><p>&quot;The Four Pillars of Investing&quot; by William Bernstein</p><p>&quot;A Random Walk Down Wall Street&quot; by Burton G. Malkiel</p><p>&quot;Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation&quot; by Edward Chancellor</p><p><br /></p><p>At the very least, spend a few minutes reading the Amazon user reviews of each book, dont take my word for it![/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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