PALLADIUM VS GOLD as an investment vehicle which is currently better ?

The charts long-term and the last few years look sickly:

 

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I think you have to factor in Russias attack
on Ukraine as Russia is the number one
producer of palladium and I think allot of
people are turned off by supporting a rouge
country direct or indirect.

 

I believe they still ship raw palladium, just not refined product.

The metal went UP after the Ukrainian invasion. If anything, removal of Russian production/refining should have jumped the price as initially happened. But it's come down HUGE in the 21 months since.

When 90% of your demand is at risk, fundamentals will win out.

 

https://www.sfa-oxford.com/platinum-group-metals/palladium-market-and-palladium-price-drivers/

Demand for palladium is largely "driven" by automobile manufacturing. If global recession (or continued high inflation) is on the table, it's going to hurt palladium demand.

Some smart people figured out how to use silver instead of "platinum group metals" (ie. palladium) in hydrogen fuel cells:

https://www6.slac.stanford.edu/news/2023-11-13-researchers-aim-make-cheaper-fuel-cells-reality

so it seems like even the green energy initiatives (ie. electric vehicles) may not be a big demand driver for palladium.

 

I don't think anybody ever thought that.

ICE vehicles need catalytic converters, EVs do not.

Platinum and palladium have tracked U.S. and global auto sales and with the downsizing of the auto industry's domestic and global production capacity, you can see why they both have melted down in recent years.

It also has not gotten much attention or news.

 

Though the automotive industry maybe one
of the biggest users it’s by far not the only
one.

 

It's 90% of the demand for Palladium, not sure about Platinum. But BIG for both.

 

EVs require hydrogen fuel cells (batteries) which are currently being made with ... palladium.

 

I'm confused.
Hydrogen Fuel Cells cars (such as the dropped Honda Clarity (which I think was Hydrogen fuel cell and a separate battery system for regenerative braking, aka FC-EV) and newer CR-V (which are both Hydrogen and LFP)) have tanks of compressed Hydrogen. Those hydrogen fuel cells tanks use Platinum and Palladium.

But the "electric battery part didn't use platinum/palladium.
Last I knew they were only available in California due to the Hydrogen recharging stations.

Whereas strictly "EVs" use Lithium-Ion (aka NMC) or Lithium Phosphate Iron (aka LiPo4, LFP) batteries. I couldn't find an article where "EV" batteries contain Platinum nor Palladium?

I'm not a battery expert but was interested in those cars when they came out but were only available in specific parts of California.

 

And, as shown in today's charts, it clearly also has more shrinkage potential.

When the Mint had its "vault sale" last week, they had 1oz Pd reverse proofs offered at $2000. I think the metal price was around $1050 at the time, and I said "no thanks". The metal's at $1002 at the moment.

Palladium is an immensely useful metal for lots of chemistry -- but as @GoldFinger1969 says, there's nothing on the horizon to make up for the 90% catalytic-converter demand that's going away long-term. Pd might see $3000 again, but my bet is that it'll see $500 first.

 

Apparently, I was too! I think I was reading too many articles on demand drivers for various precious metals and did not pay close enough attention to the different technologies out there. Mea culpa.

https://earth.org/hydrogen-vs-electric-cars/

 

Hydrogen fuel cells are NOT considered "BEVs" or "EVs."

The market for HFCs, not withstanding the IRA, has really collapsed. The time to profitability is simply not assured and too far in the future.

The market wants profitability.

 

The Inflation Reduction Act offers a subsidy of up to $3/kg for hydrogen production, right?

Producing hydrogen electrolytically takes 48kWh/kg, and 48kWh of electricity will often cost a good bit more than $3. Then again, if you've got big solar works and a very sunny day, people might be paying you to take that energy off their hands. It seems like there's a niche there ripe for exploitation...

 

Plug Power, the go-to name for hydrogen fuel cells, is down about 75% YTD and has a liquidity problem.

With ZIRP a thing of the past, you need profits, not a story. The hurdle rates on lots of stuff has changed drastically -- look at all the wind companies pulling out of projects predicated on 2% financing...and the slaughter in solar stocks.