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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 766620, member: 3011"]It's easy to come up with scenarios of doom for any investment, and it is a good practice because EVERY investment has something wrong with it. It is the function of an analyst to figure it out and determine whether or not the probability of gain exceeds the probability of loss. With the gold ETF, there are a few points to remember. (1) Not everyone can sell their shares unless someone else buys them. (2) The ETF is more of a price-taker than price-maker. (3) $39billion just isn't very much money in the institutional investment world. (4) Institutions are under-invested in metals, not over-invested. (5) It is just as likely that the short positions in GLD will have to be covered as it is that the longs will have to sell. (6) Some investors, such as Greenlight Capital, don't believe GLD has all of the gold they claim. In that situation, there might be a rush to sell GLD and purchase physical gold at some point, which is more likely to raise prices than lower them. Or, GLD may be forced to rush to purchase physical gold to back the claims against their shares. There are other points, but I think this makes the case that some sort of massive liquidation of the ETF isn't really much of a threat to gold prices.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 766620, member: 3011"]It's easy to come up with scenarios of doom for any investment, and it is a good practice because EVERY investment has something wrong with it. It is the function of an analyst to figure it out and determine whether or not the probability of gain exceeds the probability of loss. With the gold ETF, there are a few points to remember. (1) Not everyone can sell their shares unless someone else buys them. (2) The ETF is more of a price-taker than price-maker. (3) $39billion just isn't very much money in the institutional investment world. (4) Institutions are under-invested in metals, not over-invested. (5) It is just as likely that the short positions in GLD will have to be covered as it is that the longs will have to sell. (6) Some investors, such as Greenlight Capital, don't believe GLD has all of the gold they claim. In that situation, there might be a rush to sell GLD and purchase physical gold at some point, which is more likely to raise prices than lower them. Or, GLD may be forced to rush to purchase physical gold to back the claims against their shares. There are other points, but I think this makes the case that some sort of massive liquidation of the ETF isn't really much of a threat to gold prices.[/QUOTE]
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