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<p>[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1567590, member: 41665"]<font face="arial"><font size="5"><u>On the chart of the most expensive hurricanes in US history, below:</u></font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5"><u><br /></u></font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5"><u></u>Although POG +30 days might be arbitrary, you can see that Gold is typically UP in the 30-day period following major hurricanes: Big East Coast storms <u>were</u> bullish for Gold. Also, historically and statistically we expect to see November (the most bullish month for Gold Seasonality) to be UP ~3% or so. Thanksgiving Mittens Rally, anyone?</font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5"><br /></font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5">Otherwise normal, Gold's 2011 Summer Seasonality was of expected duration but very mild (a -3.76 decline, 5/5/11 - 7/1/11) and November was also UP +2.77%. But note <b>the aberrant 'big' decline in 2011, following Hurricane Irene. </b>That NY/NJ storm surge (and the first ever total shutdown of NY's subway!) was different than previous storms in the Gold charts... did it also signal a new correlation for Gold market retracements? Maybe. </font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5"><br /></font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5">At this point (10/29/2012) an -8% Decline or worse (on 11/29/2012) would <i>again </i>illustrate disrupted Seasonality or some other atypical pattern. <i>Perhaps</i>, it's a market sensitivity to East Coast superstorms. If 'putative storm correlation' happens <i>two years in row </i>(2011 and 2012) it's time to look beyond chartist excuses like 'short term overbought technical indicators.' Anticipate future superstorms (2013 and beyond) as predictors for that <i>new pattern</i>. Investors can only ignore the 'new normal' for so long, at their own peril. </font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5"><br /></font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5">I'm not yet convinced but three times' the charm. I'm more keen to know if/when plunging POG signals returning deflationary episodes in 2013, 2014 and beyond. Either way, we shall see. </font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5"><br /></font></font></p><p><font face="arial"><font size="5"></font>[TABLE="width: 482"]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="width: 65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="width: 355, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl66, width: 136, bgcolor: transparent"]<u><font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Storm Date</span></font></u></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl66, width: 87, bgcolor: transparent"]<u><font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">(+4 weeks)</span></font></u></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">1</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Katrina of 2005</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">8/29/2005</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">9.77%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">2</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Andrew of 1992</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">8/24/1992</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">1.83%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">3</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Ike of 2008</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">9/13/2008</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">10.83%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">4</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Wilma of 2005</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">10/24/2005</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">5.86%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">5</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Ivan of 2004</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">9/16/2004</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">4.21%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">6</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Charley of 2004</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">8/13/2004</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">0.64%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">7</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: transparent"]<b><font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Irene of 2011</span></font></b></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: transparent"]<b><font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">8/27/2011</span></font></b></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: transparent"]<b><font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">-7.21%</span></font></b></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">8</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Hugo of 1989</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">9/21/1989</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">-0.07%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">9</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Rita of 2005</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">9/20/2005</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">-0.11%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">10</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Agnes of 1972</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">6/19/1972</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">5.77%</span></font></i></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Floyd of 1999</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">9/16/1999</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">23.39%</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">Hurricane Camille of 1969</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]<font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">8/17/1969</span></font></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="3"><span style="color: #000000">-0.54%</span></font></i></font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TD]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TR]</font></p><p><font face="arial">[/TABLE]</font></p><p><font face="arial"><br /></font></p><p><font face="arial"><br /></font></p><p><font face="arial"></font>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1567590, member: 41665"][FONT=arial][SIZE=5][U]On the chart of the most expensive hurricanes in US history, below: [/U]Although POG +30 days might be arbitrary, you can see that Gold is typically UP in the 30-day period following major hurricanes: Big East Coast storms [U]were[/U] bullish for Gold. Also, historically and statistically we expect to see November (the most bullish month for Gold Seasonality) to be UP ~3% or so. Thanksgiving Mittens Rally, anyone? Otherwise normal, Gold's 2011 Summer Seasonality was of expected duration but very mild (a -3.76 decline, 5/5/11 - 7/1/11) and November was also UP +2.77%. But note [B]the aberrant 'big' decline in 2011, following Hurricane Irene. [/B]That NY/NJ storm surge (and the first ever total shutdown of NY's subway!) was different than previous storms in the Gold charts... did it also signal a new correlation for Gold market retracements? Maybe. At this point (10/29/2012) an -8% Decline or worse (on 11/29/2012) would [I]again [/I]illustrate disrupted Seasonality or some other atypical pattern. [I]Perhaps[/I], it's a market sensitivity to East Coast superstorms. If 'putative storm correlation' happens [I]two years in row [/I](2011 and 2012) it's time to look beyond chartist excuses like 'short term overbought technical indicators.' Anticipate future superstorms (2013 and beyond) as predictors for that [I]new pattern[/I]. Investors can only ignore the 'new normal' for so long, at their own peril. I'm not yet convinced but three times' the charm. I'm more keen to know if/when plunging POG signals returning deflationary episodes in 2013, 2014 and beyond. Either way, we shall see. [/SIZE][TABLE="width: 482"] [TR] [TD="width: 65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="width: 355, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="class: xl66, width: 136, bgcolor: transparent"][U][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Storm Date[/COLOR][/SIZE][/U] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, width: 87, bgcolor: transparent"][U][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000](+4 weeks)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/U] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]1[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Katrina of 2005[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]8/29/2005[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]9.77%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]2[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Andrew of 1992[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]8/24/1992[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]1.83%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]3[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Ike of 2008[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]9/13/2008[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]10.83%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]4[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Wilma of 2005[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]10/24/2005[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]5.86%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]5[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Ivan of 2004[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]9/16/2004[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]4.21%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]6[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Charley of 2004[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]8/13/2004[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]0.64%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]7[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: transparent"][B][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Irene of 2011[/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [/TD] [TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: transparent"][B][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]8/27/2011[/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [/TD] [TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: transparent"][B][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]-7.21%[/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]8[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Hugo of 1989[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]9/21/1989[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]-0.07%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]9[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Rita of 2005[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]9/20/2005[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]-0.11%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]10[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Agnes of 1972[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]6/19/1972[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]5.77%[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Floyd of 1999[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]9/16/1999[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]23.39%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]Hurricane Camille of 1969[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]8/17/1969[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]-0.54%[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/FONT][/QUOTE]
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