Mortgage rates

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by medoraman, Aug 12, 2020.

  1. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Posting here because it has an effect on PM in my mind. Locked in refinancing 2 weeks ago and may have lucked out. My friend who is my mortgage broker says rates have climbed every day since then, (like I said, pure luck). However, I read today that 10 year treasuries along with 30 years have been climbing recently.

    My view of the runup of PM is running for shelter and trying to protect assets. Then, after the run starts, this run attracts more money. I view yesterday's selloff as profit taking from the latter group.

    What does the "brain trust" here feel about the fact Treasuries and mortgage rates loosely tied to them increasing will have on PM? My view is Treasuries may be losing their luster with too much supply, and this may add base support to PM increasing.
     
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  3. tennbjj

    tennbjj New Member

    Real estate market feels so eerie. Even with the pandemic going on, housing prices haven't been negatively affected (in my area). In fact my realtor friends are dying because they have tons of buyers and no inventory. I feel another big bust coming a la 2008
     
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  4. wxcoin

    wxcoin Getting no respect for 64 years

    Up here in northern Wisconsin people are buying up most everything. A dog house on a vacant lot would probably find a buyer. Many buyers are couples from urban areas who've decided to retire early.
     
    GeorgeM likes this.
  5. GenX Enthusiast

    GenX Enthusiast Forensic grammatician

    Prices in northern New Mexico are very high. Maybe people trying to cash out and get lucky with a coastal buyer who doesn't know the market and doesn't care.
    A couple of outlier deals I was surprised to find, someone who really wanted to move a very thoughtfully detailed house on nice property very fast... wish I could afford it;)
    I would not be putting anything on the market at the moment, nor kicking out a renter, as there are NO waiting lists, just more and more folks living in their cars and soaping up in the rivers, oldschool.
     
  6. Jim Dale

    Jim Dale Well-Known Member

    Here in North Carolina, the realtors say they are taking 4% on their sales. They are begging for a house to sell. Interest rates here are going down. I really have check today. I've got a house that we renovated about 5 years ago and then my wife's mother passed and left us everything, a furnished house on 5 acres but we got 4 dogs too along with our 3. We haven't spent one night in our home and I don't want to sell it or the country home either. Anyway, best of luck guys and gals.
     
  7. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    Been getting "want to sell something near the U $$" from realtors and " refinance now!! by financial companies and banks" .We have been looking also but standing pat for a while.
     
  8. Kentucky

    Kentucky Supporter! Supporter

    Our house has gone up over 4X what we paid...but then again, so has everything else around here...
     
  9. Mr.Q

    Mr.Q Well-Known Member

    Here in Idaho homes, lots, and acreage are outrageous and mortgage rates are on the rise also. We paid off our home this year but insurance and tax rates continue to rise as is everything else... Oh well thats life in the fast lane I guess...
     
    David Hill likes this.
  10. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Mortgage rates are set weekly. Check the Freddie PMMS here:

    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

    The 10-year move is a blip of a blip. You're talking about 0.52% to 0.69%, which is BELOW the weekly and monthly averages the last few months.

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-c.../pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2020

    Even 30-year mortgages track the 10-year Treasury since the duration (weighted cash flows) is closer to a 30-year mortgage. And there's probably NOT much more downside to mortgage rates -- nobody is going to lend much below 3% unless we have negative rates and the Fed/Treasury PAY banks to lend money.

    I think people now realize that there is a growing anti-wealth, anti-private property mentality that we have seen the last few months.

    European Socialism has come to America and it is a cancer that must be defeated like Covid-19.:yack:

    Rates are so low that the opportunity cost of holding PM's is nonexistent. Nobody thought 30-year Treasuries would go much below 3% and 10-year much below 1.5% and look where we are. :D

    Treasury supply is dwarfed by debt deflation dynamics. Read Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph for great global analysis of debt dynamics and "The Denominator Effect." That is suppressing global bond yields.

    We had 35 years of rising interest rates and inflation from 1946-81....the last few years were an inflationary melt-up...we could be seeing the flip-side of that with a deflationary or disinflationary bent....question is, are we in the final throws of this decline in bond yields (1979 or 1980) or are we in the early-innings (1966 and 1967)?
     
    Garlicus likes this.
  11. john65999

    john65999 Active Member

    in sherman, ct just did a house clean out, owners sold a multi million dollar property for 750 k..over 6 acres on a private pond, 12 room house each room is 15 x 25 or larger, 4 baths, finished basement, secluded and in ground pool and complete childs play area..crazy property, was over 1.2 listed they sold for 750k, so i think in some areas covid knockin the hades out of prices, just my humble opinion...properties are selling, but at drastically reduced prices.. at least in the upper tier properties
     
  12. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I'm surprised this property had to be discounted....lots of stories of $10 MM and $30 MM mansions getting cut in half.....but stuff under $2 MM in the 'burbs should find buyers fleeing the cities because of close proximity to people in a C-19 world and close proximity to looters and rioters in a don't-prosecute-crime DA world. :D
     
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  13. john65999

    john65999 Active Member

    true do not know why, just the lasty few houses we did..seems going for way under price . one i just told about, the couple are in their 90's and keeping their nyc house, but selling a few of their others..seems easier for them, no driving and all, their dr's are all in the city and what not..i am not in real estate, i just do the clean-outs with a partner of mine....so far no coins..just a lot of antiques and art type things..
     
    GeorgeM likes this.
  14. john65999

    john65999 Active Member

    agree with ya brother the burn loot murder movement and antifa are scary as heck...seems one world order right around the corner....

    edited
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 13, 2020
  15. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I would view it as more of a function of CT taxes. They are as brutal as NYC taxes nowadays. I view the states in the NE have pushed to the edge of what they can do taking ever more money from well to do to give to others. At a certain point the ants will simply walk away from the greedy grasshoppers forever.
     
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  16. Jim Dale

    Jim Dale Well-Known Member

    People want to move into comfortable homes, but mostly, safe homes. I'm sure some of you have already heard about the two murders of two separate incidents. One man shot a kid in the head and killed him. The other is another man that shot a kid and the kid has "life-threatening" wounds. This is a reverse of the Floyd killing. As far as I can tell, national news hasn't picked up on them. I'm thankful that I live 15 miles from civilization and one mile down a dirt road with an Australian Sheep Dog, a pit bull mix, a mean wire terrier, a rotweiller mix, and two year old chiweenie (father was a dachshund, mother was a chihuahua) and a cat. We had someone go to our neighbor's house (1 mile away) and siphoned her gas. People are getting so they need gas to get groceries, but their unemployment checks haven't come in yet. I am way off topic. I'm sorry guys and gals. Thanks for being there.
     
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  17. Garlicus

    Garlicus Debt is dumb, cash is king.

    FYI - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac instituted a new “Adverse Market Refinance Fee.” It adds a 50 basis points fee (0.5%) to most mortgage refinances starting Sept. 1, 2020.
     
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  18. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Government backed, non-VA and non-Jumbo mortgages. I got lucky since mine was already locked and a VA loan.
     
    Garlicus likes this.
  19. Kentucky

    Kentucky Supporter! Supporter

    I had a CD with Sallie Mae last year at 2.5%, this year the rate is 0.9%
     
  20. GeorgeM

    GeorgeM Well-Known Member

    Property demand is not universally distributed. Some areas have strong job sectors (despite Covid) & limited inventory, and are seeing very tight supply with demand pushing prices up. In other areas, rising property taxes, declining school quality, and the hollowing out of the job market (especially in manufacturing) are causing a near freefall. My perception is that in most areas, people seem to be hunkering down and working on home improvement projects instead of flipping houses as they once did.

    Look at the demand for in-ground pool installations. The prices are up 30% over what they were last year, and there are 6-month waiting lists!

    How this relates to th le future of PM prices, I'm not sure. The problem with wild swings in prices is that government intervention will almost certainly folllow. And it's hard to predict who the winners and losers will be in the plutocracy/swamp 2.0 that we increasingly live in.
     
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  21. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Several NY Times articles in recent days/weeks talking about insane demand for NYC suburban housing.

    Rush to get kids in school....multiple bids, above market....etc.
     
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