Market Shennanigans and Thoughts

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by SD51555, Jul 8, 2016.

  1. World Colonial

    World Colonial Active Member

    There is going to be war once the current "contained" depression becomes obvious and later inflation, but first it's a lot more likely there will be a deflationary financial crash because the value of outstanding financial claims dwarfs the amount of actual money available to service existing debt or for more than a minimal proportion to get out of the door at the same time at anywhere near current prices.

    I know that most or at least believe otherwise and I think we will all find out whether governments can cause significantly higher or hyperinflation contrary to market forces. My answer is no.
     
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  3. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    I can,t understand why some folks think the economy is poor and ready for disaster...In my short 66yrs, I,ve gone thru about 5 recessions and the same in fair times. I see the present as the best of the best times for economic success and longevity Edited: Political Commentary, not allowed. The World economies have never seen the stability which exists right now. We should only hope that policies stay in check, as they are now, for an economic future never before seen in modern history.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 9, 2016
  4. Cascade

    Cascade CAC Variety Nerd

    All the so called stability you see now is an illusion. A house of cards that is about to encounter an earthquake of biblical proportions.
     
  5. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    I don,t think so, these predictions are and always have been a common reaction to the uncertainty of day by day news and tabloid.
    The World has so many more challenging problems to deal with than petty monetary woes. Overpopulation, disease, and hunger are but a few of the tougher issues compared to sinking economies. All the wealth on Earth can,t begin to deal with the problems we all must face. If these issues aren,t addressed, most of the virtues we all depend on could disappear from our lives forever, a mirror image of the collapse of the Roman Empire.
     
  6. Danjohnson

    Danjohnson Well-Known Member

    So you don't believe the "more challenging problems" are monetary based? "Overpopulation, disease, and hunger" being "a few of the tougher issues" by your own words, you don't believe those are due to "sinking economies"?

    I don't mean to be sarcastic but what exactly do you believe a medium of exchange (money/currency=monetary system) does?
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2016
  7. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Every recession I've lived through in my six decades has been preceeded by predictions of "The next one will do us all in." Yes, there will be another recession. And it won't do us in.
     
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  8. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    If one wants to compare the situation of today with the collapse of the Roman Empire, go read historian Edward Gibbon's five-point summation of Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

    I will leave it at that.
     
  9. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

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  10. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    No, most of these issues have religious or political origins...third world mentality...or lack of. The price tag is far deeper than any monetary repair.
     
  11. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

  12. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Yes, I think I remember that list, or something like it, from my pre-Internet childhood as well. I'm curious about its origin too, but I imagine it's just something that evolved from discussions among like-minded people.

    It's a useful reminder that people were making things up even before the Internet. Or at least, I think I read that somewhere on the Internet... ;)
     
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  13. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    That is where the national debt comes in. And for the first time in history, the US credit rating actually dropped.

    At some point we will have to pay off that debt or declare bankruptcy.

    We continue to breed increasingly dependent societies - this costs money.

    I still believe the movie "Idiocracy" was not a comedy - but in fact it is a documentary. :nailbiting:
     
  14. statequarterguy

    statequarterguy Love Pucks

    Of course we do, pretty much an economic reality, as more is automated. The problem is the ones who own the machines/the wealthy, have chosen to not share the profits and let the government borrow to cover the tab.

    I mean really, when all is automated, will only the ones who own the machines be allowed to eat? Well, that's where we're headed, a little at a time.
     
  15. Danjohnson

    Danjohnson Well-Known Member

    The debt doesn't have to be paid off, in fact, it can't be. Our money has evolved over the past century into pure debt/credit... Our money is debt. If it were to all be paid off, we would have no money. Here's a great and I think accurate quote:

    "There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." - Ludwig von Mises

    The thing is no one knows when the collapse might come? Being as the dollar is the reserve currency for the rest of the world, it could go on a long time. South America, the EU, Japan, China will go first which seems to be happening but only time will tell when this credit bubble pops. Don't want to be holding paper when that happens.
     
  16. Danjohnson

    Danjohnson Well-Known Member

    Here's a great primer for those interested. I don't think it's political so I hope mods won't be offended.

     
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  17. Johnnie Black

    Johnnie Black Neither Gentleman Nor Scholar

    The origin is the 1976 book "How Should We Then Live" by Francis Schaeffer. Schaeffer presents the points as a summation of Gibbons reasons for decline, not direct quotes from Gibbons. The article challenging his claims does little to refute the summary however. The article doesn't refute claims 1,2, or 4 and seems to mainly have issue with the anachronistic terms attributed to Gibbons moreso than the actual material.

    Maybe Schaeffer is biased based on his world view but the PhD scholar has her own biases apparent from her own bibliography.
     
  18. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    There is a great deal written in Gibbon concerning our own country and its current path, but will lead other readers to make their own determination. I would say concentrate on why Western Rome fell.

    As for if a PhD has their own biases, of course. The act of getting a PhD in academia today leads to many biases. I am getting mine part time while still working in the real world, so actively fighting these biases, (but have my own of course).
     
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  19. V. Kurt Bellman

    V. Kurt Bellman Yes, I'm blunt! Get over your "feeeeelings".

    The problem with quoting von Mises, and/or Hayek, is that Austrian School economics is soundly NOT EVEN RESPECTED AT ALL ANY MORE by the vast majority of economists, and I'm talking well over 90-95%. Yes, it has its adherents, and they certainly do like to write prolifically on websites, but really, they're cranks.

    Austrian School is an economic paradigm of the cranks, by the cranks, and for the cranks. And why not? It sells metals to people who only THINK they understand modern mainstream economics. You can't even DO that by reading von Mises. Throw that junk away, or put it in the discredited history department and start anew with Keynes leading all the way up to Reich.

    The only part of our economy that's unsustainable is the amount of economic power concentrated at the top end. That has to stop, but discussing why, or especially how, is blatant politics, und das ist hier verboten! I don't like that rule, but I don't get to write the rules. To me, coins mostly ARE politics, if you think about them deeper.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2016
  20. longnine009

    longnine009 Darwin has to eat too. Supporter

    Ninty to ninty-five percent of keynes people disagree with Mises? Who could've seen that coming?
     
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  21. Danjohnson

    Danjohnson Well-Known Member

    Indeed, something along the lines of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
     
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