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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1475758, member: 3011"]I don't think it is relevant that byproduct silver can be produced at a lower cost. It's just part of the total supply/demand equation and will apparently remain so indefinitely. The goal of markets is to discover the price at which supply and demand clear, and this price is constantly changing. You are correct that we cannot be certain of anything. All investing is about judging probabilities - the probability of gain vs loss. In my experience, the burden of proof that the market is wrong lies with the person who asserts it. This isn't to say they cannot be correct. All value investing is analysis to determine where the current market price may turn out to be wrong. But the burden of proof always lies with the analyst, not with the market. It may be correct that the above ground supply of silver is the lowest in 700 years, but is that relevant to today? Perhaps the world needs lower silver inventories today since it is no longer used as money. So as long as mine supply is sufficient to meet industrial demand, the price won't rise. I'm not anti-silver. I own silver and expect it to rise. But I don't think the present market price is wrong, and unless the price is fixed at too low a lever, there will never be a shortage. I think the supply/demand situation will continue to move in favor of higher prices, at least for a few more years. But not because of manipulation. Just because demand seems to be growing and supply probably won't keep up.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1475758, member: 3011"]I don't think it is relevant that byproduct silver can be produced at a lower cost. It's just part of the total supply/demand equation and will apparently remain so indefinitely. The goal of markets is to discover the price at which supply and demand clear, and this price is constantly changing. You are correct that we cannot be certain of anything. All investing is about judging probabilities - the probability of gain vs loss. In my experience, the burden of proof that the market is wrong lies with the person who asserts it. This isn't to say they cannot be correct. All value investing is analysis to determine where the current market price may turn out to be wrong. But the burden of proof always lies with the analyst, not with the market. It may be correct that the above ground supply of silver is the lowest in 700 years, but is that relevant to today? Perhaps the world needs lower silver inventories today since it is no longer used as money. So as long as mine supply is sufficient to meet industrial demand, the price won't rise. I'm not anti-silver. I own silver and expect it to rise. But I don't think the present market price is wrong, and unless the price is fixed at too low a lever, there will never be a shortage. I think the supply/demand situation will continue to move in favor of higher prices, at least for a few more years. But not because of manipulation. Just because demand seems to be growing and supply probably won't keep up.[/QUOTE]
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