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<p>[QUOTE="InfleXion, post: 1475366, member: 29012"]The burden of proof lies with the statements being made. I did not assert that you were wrong, merely that you cannot prove you are right. Also, since silver is mined as a byproduct, its cost of production is impacted to the downside. If the price were high enough for primary silver mines to be profitable, then all of the cost of running those mines would fall upon silver, where as today it gets a free ride. Statements can be made to support either line of thinking, but my point was that we can't say for certain. </p><p><br /></p><p>The fact that we cannot say for certain is also what I was getting at. What are the goals of markets? Price stability and forecasting? Ease of use by those who need them? Hedging? Fair value? It seems to me that the goal is always something other than fair value, when that should be paramount above all others, but people are so concered with turning a profit in dollars that it isn't hard to look the other way when things are going your way. Whether it is undervalued or overvalued is irrelevant, and while I do believe it's undervalued and that is my motivation, it does not have to be everyone's motivation. The point is that everyone should be concerned that the value is not what it's supposed to be, regardless. If it were we would not see such violent moves. </p><p><br /></p><p>As for a convincing analysis for why the price should be higher, I would simply point out (as I often do) that above ground available refined silver is at its lowest levels in 700 years. This should not happen if price rises to meet demand, since supply has been and is still losing ground. Since paper markets prevent discovery of fair value, and since this trend of supply depletion has been consistent for a century now, I contend there is a lot of catching up to do for price, but that is JMO, and even if I am right that will not happen until and unless the physical market decouples, and that will not happen until there is a real supply shortage. However, the longer it remains undervalued the sooner it will decouple, so if anyone is keeping the price down it's in their interests to allow it to rise enough to prevent a shortage.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="InfleXion, post: 1475366, member: 29012"]The burden of proof lies with the statements being made. I did not assert that you were wrong, merely that you cannot prove you are right. Also, since silver is mined as a byproduct, its cost of production is impacted to the downside. If the price were high enough for primary silver mines to be profitable, then all of the cost of running those mines would fall upon silver, where as today it gets a free ride. Statements can be made to support either line of thinking, but my point was that we can't say for certain. The fact that we cannot say for certain is also what I was getting at. What are the goals of markets? Price stability and forecasting? Ease of use by those who need them? Hedging? Fair value? It seems to me that the goal is always something other than fair value, when that should be paramount above all others, but people are so concered with turning a profit in dollars that it isn't hard to look the other way when things are going your way. Whether it is undervalued or overvalued is irrelevant, and while I do believe it's undervalued and that is my motivation, it does not have to be everyone's motivation. The point is that everyone should be concerned that the value is not what it's supposed to be, regardless. If it were we would not see such violent moves. As for a convincing analysis for why the price should be higher, I would simply point out (as I often do) that above ground available refined silver is at its lowest levels in 700 years. This should not happen if price rises to meet demand, since supply has been and is still losing ground. Since paper markets prevent discovery of fair value, and since this trend of supply depletion has been consistent for a century now, I contend there is a lot of catching up to do for price, but that is JMO, and even if I am right that will not happen until and unless the physical market decouples, and that will not happen until there is a real supply shortage. However, the longer it remains undervalued the sooner it will decouple, so if anyone is keeping the price down it's in their interests to allow it to rise enough to prevent a shortage.[/QUOTE]
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