I hear ya, but that sounds like the people who continued to buy real estate in 05, 06, and 07 even though prices had skyrocketed - saying "this time it's different - the conditions are different - yes prices are incredibly high but, but, but". Or the people who bought dot com stocks even though the companies had no earnings. A bubble, is a bubble, is a bubble, and gold has a chance to be the next bubble to pop (if it does go to 1,300, 1,400, or higher). For my money, if I'm in an asset that increases in value by 100 or 200% in a relatively short period of time, I'm rebalancing my portfolio. Just a way to reduce risk. If gold goes to $1,500 in the next couple years? or even $1,400 or maybe $1,300, I'll sellin - I don't care what the conditions. - just my 2 cents (1 indian head, 1 lincoln) It's all good :smile
A lot of people do it that way. Many of the people who bought CSCO common stock at a split adjusted $1 per share in 1991 were happy to sell at $7 in 1994 or even $20 in 1999, but missed the parabolic run to $100 in early 2000. I think it's going to be the same with gold. The time to sell gold will be after it goes parabolic and doubles a couple of times within a few months. It depends on whether you are satisfed with a capital gain or if your goal is the accumulation of life-changing wealth. Your life, your choice.
If you think it's a good idea to short something in a strong uptrend, it might be a good idea to get out of the decision making role regarding your investments. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I didn't say short now, but perhaps at a certain point. "when others are greedy, be fearful and when others are fearful, be greedy" - Warren Buffett
Ok. It's easy to quote someone else, but what you say you plan to do doesn't fit with the strategy of Mr. Buffett. Good luck.