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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;pmbug, post: 26126760, member: 36982&quot;]The problem is opaque information.&nbsp; The LBMA publishes a single number for their vault holdings once a month.&nbsp; They have been caught lying about that number in the past.&nbsp; How much actual metal they have is an open question.&nbsp; Transparency on that number is needed to calculate/estimate a run rate (to predict a timeframe with any confidence).</p><p><br /></p><p>What we know from the data is that the LBMA vaults are being drained.&nbsp; Gold is essentially empty (of free float).&nbsp; Silver looks to be empty (of free float) anywhere from yesterday (they are lying about their vault holdings) to a few months out (their number is correct and assuming the markets continue draining the vaults at the same rate as they have the last couple of months).</p><p><br /></p><p>A second factor is whether/when COMEX longs demand delivery on their contracts.&nbsp; Per David Jensen&#039;s analysis of the COMEX short positions, the LBMA is already unable to cover COMEX short positions.&nbsp; The market could squeeze tomorrow on this point, or limp along on a slow bleed if just a small percentage of COMEX contracts demand delivery (status quo).[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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