Liquidity At These Levels?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Randy Abercrombie, Mar 9, 2024.

  1. fretboard

    fretboard Defender of Old Coinage!

    I buy an occasional small gold coin if I can get it for a decent price and it's scarce or rare! The price of gold is too high for me to gamble on it right now, I prefer a sure thing, I sleep better that way! :D
     
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  3. fiddlehead

    fiddlehead Well-Known Member

    haha! I've lived a long time and have yet to encounter a sure thing.... I collect for fun and buy bullion for diversification and the most important consideration I make is downside risk, in everything I invest in. I don't avoid it entirely, I just evaluate it as best I can. That's one of the nice things about collecting old rare gold in moderate grades, the downside risk is somewhat balanced by the intrinsic, or hopefully so, value of the precious metal the items are made from. The greater the "collector" value in a coin compared to it's precious metal content, the greater the downside risk. That's what makes collecting gold coins different from collecting dolls or automobiles. Real estate is kind of like that too. If the property is useful to you or generates some income then bubbles are mitigated somewhat, cutting a bit into downside risk. Interesting discussion.
     
  4. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I have tons of pics that show that Peak Gold and slowing supply growth are leading to rising prices.

    You're better off buying at $2,200 an ounce, Randy, than $3,200 an ounce !!! :D
     
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  5. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    As for liquidity....for the SMALL investor with a few dozen/hundred coins...liquidity is not an issue. For very wealthy individuals, then an ETF might be better though it is not akin to holding physical gold.

    For institutions, the size needed mandates either an ETF (where you do have liquidity) or a long-term storage strategy which means liquidity is not a primary concern.
     
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  6. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    REAL intertest rates historically have inversely correlated with gold -- but not lately, as the rise in real rates since 2022 should have knocked gold down $600/oz. but didn't.

    "Borrowed money" is not actively a part of futures contracts. The instruments themselves are leveraged, no need to use leverage to buy leverage.:D

    We ALL "only" need to know the direction of interest rates. :D
     
  7. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Maybe but ETFs have seen outflows the last few months as gold has risen.
    True.
    Yup !! :D
     
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  8. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    In this case, you have had wide retail participation through ETFs, gold coins, bars, etc....for YEARS.

    It's not the institutions and so-called "smart money" that has been in gold...it's the Little Guy. :D
     
  9. Heavymetal

    Heavymetal Well-Known Member

  10. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

  11. Heavymetal

    Heavymetal Well-Known Member

    Everyone should know what affects their gold holdings or investments. Short term or long. Not always supply/demand.
     
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  12. Heavymetal

    Heavymetal Well-Known Member

    Been telling y’all to get ready for this move on PMs since Feb. Hang on tight folks. Silver over $29. Gold over $2400
     
  13. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Randy, you remember the 1970's...gold had been $35 an ounce for DECADEs....all of a sudden it's doubled to $70...hits triple-digits at $100. $150....$200.

    Even with gold ~ $200-$300 for a few years it more than doubled in a few years.

    I think LIQUIDITY has nothing to do with the PRICE. Liquidity to me is the daily ability to get in-and-out which for us small investors is fine. Jim Cramer always said that small investors had a huge advantage in that they could get in-and-out of even illiquid stocks/investment that institutions needed weeks or months to unload.

    While gold bars, bullion, gold coins, and numismatic gold coins are NOT as liquid as stuff in a Fidelity account, it's not real estate or art, either. :D
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2024
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  14. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    A SINGLE country like India has historically DOUBLED gold demand every 15-20 years. Gold demand is now running about 700-800 tons per year for India:

    Indian Gold Consumption, 1850-1997.jpg

    Annual gold production now tougher to boost supply:

    Annual Gold Production, 2010-23.jpg

    Low-hanging fruit for gold production is mostly over:

    Gold Production, 1820-2020.jpg


    Supply is getting much tighter...demand (even without retail/ETFs) is persistent.


    Gold vs. ETFs.jpg

    I don't like where they dated the start of this bull market as it's the low since 2011-12...but even using that, it's not way ahead of the pack even with the recent rise in price.

    Gold went up 10-20 fold (depending on your starting point) in the 1970's.....6-fold in the 2000's...it's only doubled so far.

    $5,000 in the cards ? :cigar:

    5 Major Gold Bull Markets.jpg
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2024
  15. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Actually, we don't WANT any rocketship-like moves. Slow-and-steady with minimal interest from the public/media serves us best.

    Hopefully, only when gold crosses $3K do we lead off the financial segments.:p
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2024
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  16. Heavymetal

    Heavymetal Well-Known Member

    Any y’all want off this rocket?
     
  17. Randy Abercrombie

    Randy Abercrombie Supporter! Supporter

    Nope. That’s for my kids to worry about.
     
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  18. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    The rocket will be when you wake up and see gold up $150 overnight, maybe more. And then it rises MORE during NY trading.

    Then your question will deserve it's own thread. :D
     
  19. slackaction1

    slackaction1 Supporter! Supporter

    No
    Heavymetal
    I don't want off Rocket, go ahead and light it up. along for the ride enjoying it.
     
  20. Player11

    Player11 Bullish

    It’s very liquid - just start auction on the bay at melt.
     
  21. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Hmm.

    If the auction closes at melt, then after fees and shipping, you're getting 15% or more below melt.

    If the price of silver drops during the auction, you get no bidders, or anyone who bid early cancels.

    If the price of silver rises during the auction, maybe you win -- or maybe everybody ignores the listing when it first appears (because people prefer lower starting prices), and then somebody snipes it at the end for a price that's now below melt. And you're still on the hook for 15% or more in fees.

    List as BIN, and you can adjust the price as needed to track spot. But again, fees will eat you alive.

    In general, you'll do better selling to dealers at a local show (where they have to compete with each other). But local shows don't happen every day.
     
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