Is Palladium going to over take Platinum in spot price ?

Have been looking at this for sometime and thinking very seriously about investing
More in Palladium, though i havent started yet, LOL will start looking in that direction
Very, very soon !! unfortunately there arent many bullion options as i have only seen
a handful of coins from Russia and Canada.

 

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Logically, it shouldn't. If it didn't pass platinum in 2001, when Russia artificially inflated global prices, it likely never will.

We must remember, palladium is toxic and carcinogenic.

 

It's only $53.00 away from Platinum as of today. Try www.pinehurstcoins.com. The have 1 gram, 10 gram and 1 ounce bars in assay. I picked up 3-1 gram bars from them recently.

 

[citation needed]

Palladium compounds are toxic, as are gold, platinum, and silver compounds. It's a noble metal, so it doesn't form compounds readily. As palladium black, it could probably cause some problems, but you have to go to a lot of trouble to get it into that form.

In bulk (rounds or bars), it's inert and harmless, except in association with high-speed impact.

 

So, don't tape it to your headlight and purposely hit a telephone pole. Very interesting -@jeffB, I learned something today (again). Thank you.

 

I think your right on target Tommy with that thinking, diversification is the key
and never invest in just one thing !

 

Platinum's number one application is as an emissions catalyst for diesel engines. Diesel cars are likely on their way out globally thanks to WV's PR nightmare. Tesla's semi truck endeavor and similar efforts from Diamler, if successful, could also disrupt the heavy trucking diesel market over the next decade or so. Future outlook for diesels power vehicles looks grim over the next decade or two and platinum prices will likely drop accordingly.

Gasoline cars purchases on the other hand, which use mostly palladium as a catalyst, are on the rise.

The thing is, the two metals along with other PGMs are for the most part interchangeable in auto catalysts. If/went platinum becomes cheaper than palladium, catalysis manufacturers will start to use platinum. Theoretically, the price of both will level out together unless some other demand for one of them breaks outs.

I still expect PGM demand to drop significantly over of the next 20-30 years as ICE powered vehicles give way to electric. PGM's will need another large industrial application to maintain their values long term.

 

No matter which direction the car market goes you will always have similar vehicles
That require different metals, electric cars and alternative fuel cars have been around for years and in that time palladium has risen by 30% but Platinum has
Dropped 3 % which is the only PM that has not seen any gains, Silver is up 13%
and Gold 12% over the last 10 Year period.

 

Metal prices, just like stocks, are based on speculative future demand. This applies to PGMs more so than gold or silver which have a safe haven investment aspects that PGMs (for the most part) do not. Diesel car demand is tanking and will likely go away completely in the not to distant future. This is one of the reasons Platinum is down. Palladium is seeing positive movement with the overall car market because its used primarily in gasoline cars. However, as the adoption of cars that don't run on dead dinosaur juice continues to accelerate, the need for more new PGMs overall will decline significantly without a new use.

Alternative fuels vehicles up to this point have accounted for a tiny fraction of total car sales. Even hybrids still have gasoline engines with catalytic converters. This is all shifting, and quickly. Projections estimate that 50% of all new cars sold in the US will be fully electric within a few decades. Global EV sales could be up to 30% in the same time period, primarily driven by Chinese demand. PGMs have no significant roll in electric cars as we see them today or in the foreseeable future. Batteries today use lithium, copper, cobalt, aluminum, and nickel. PGMs could find new hope in fuel cells, but these haven't turned out to the wonder machines people were hoping for. Some researchers have ideas of PGMs in batteries, but until there is a usable product that can actually be made and sold, its just a science experiment.

Tesla's Model 3 will be the test. A success here will mark the beginning of a fundamental shift in the auto industry. A true widespread adoption of a platform that does not run on fossil fuels. If Tesla pulls it off, you can bet others will follow quickly. Other large auto makers (mostly the Germans) have already committed to full scale EV production with the expectation of turning profits off the segment instead of the money losing government compliance garbage they have been making up to this point.

PGMs are unique in their physical properties. They will always be needed for other various things. But those other various things are dwarfed by the auto catalyst industry which does not have a prosperous long term outlook right now.

 

One of the fundamental challenges is first affordability of the technology and
can it be offered to the masses at a reasonable price point as of right now my
answer is only a maybe, I use to drive a Toyota Prius and even that technology
was expensive a new battery is over $3,000 and only warranted for 75,000
miles after that your on your own, and the Tesla technology wont come close
to that price point so over all we are still several years out in the changing of
the guard !

 

Hybrids are complicated vehicles to make. You are basically strapping two power trains together and cramming them into one car. In the effort of trying to solve one problem, they are creating another.

Tesla has proven it can make a desirable EV that people actually want and that works in the real world. Highway capable range with a fast charging network to support its customers. The entire concept is new, and it seems to be working. The affordability issue has to do with scale. Tesla bet big on scale with their Nevada battery factory. They will be producing more lithium batteries in one building than the rest of the world's current production combined. This along with a more streamlined production process has allowed them to bring a $35k (before tax incentives) long range EV to the mass market. This isn't some marketing experiment like the Chevy Bolt who sells in the 1,000's per month. Tesla wants to build and sell 10,000/week. We still have a month or two before the thing launches and there are already over 400,000 reservations.

This is the test. By this time next year, we will know if Tesla is able to make mass market EVs work. EVs are becoming popular. Regardless of who you are, people want them. They are cool, fast, environmentally friendly, and made right here in the USA. The Tesla Model 3 is set to become the iPhone of the car industry. A success here will set off a chain reaction with every other large auto manufacturer wanting in on the EV segment.

By the way, Tesla battery packs make up a significant part of the car's price, but have an 8 year, unlimited mile warranty including the drive unit.

 

Right now Tesla is seen as a luxury vehicle with prices starting at $68,000
Hardly affordable for just about anybody even with tax incentives you would
still need to qualify at that price regardless of any tax incentives offered they
would basically come in on the back side kind of a reimbursement platform
That price would need to come down by half at the very least or offer a more
affordable version which might be under consideration ?

 

The more affordable version was unveiled last year, production prototypes have been roaming the roads of the US for months now, and actual customer cars are expected to begin production in a few weeks. There are currently over 400,000 reservations for the car where a person had to put down a $1,000 deposit, so these are not just people that signed up for an email list. The car will sell for $35,000 before tax incentives. Options will obviously add to the price.

This isn't something that is still years off. Its happening right now.

Unlike the legacy auto industry, innovations in EV technology will make the cars more affordable, not more expensive. The cost of battery cells compared to their energy storage has been falling and will continue to fall as more companies develop new technology and manufacturing processes. Long distance highway capable EV's that could sell in the 20's are not unrealistic within a few years.

Other car makers are still one to two years off, but they are on it. Its mostly the Germans at this point, but both GM and Ford have launched programs to sell real mass market (and profitable) EVs by 2020.

 

Well its hard to make reliable forecasts until the final product is revealed, prototypes
Are fine but they are not the finished product or what the manufacture will sell to the public, i think the price of $35,000 is still to rich, for bare bones now, if that
was optioned out a little bit maybe, but just adding a couple of needed features
could easily go over the $40K range not really bread and butter for the masses.

 

The average sale price for a car in the US is in the mid $30k's. The Tesla Model 3 will be an average priced car with average level features. Midsize German luxury cars (which Teslas are compared to) start in the low to mid $30k's and most people would not consider them bare bones. Some state offer tax incentives which bring down the cost more. Ownership cost are also projected to be lower. Most all utilities offer special rates on charging cars if you agree to do it at night, making a full charge only a few $'s compared to filling a tank of gasoline. Tesla offers 400wkh/year (~1,000 miles) of free highway charging to all new customers. An EV is a much more simple machine compared to a gasoline or diesel vehicle. Cost of maintenance over the life of the car will be less. The motor is one moving part, there is no oil to change, etc... Battery technology has improved to offer battery life expectancy approaching 200,000 miles. Blah, Blah, Blah...

Research Tesla's efforts from their retooling of a Toyota/GM assembly plant, to their 5,000,000 square foot battery factory, to their growing global charging network. Then look at what other auto makers are doing. Many didn't care about EV's as actual profitable products just 2 years ago. Then look at what they did once it became clear that Tesla was a serious market competitor with ever growing sales, massive investments in research and development, and 400,000 people willing to part with $1,000 for a car they couldn't actual buy for another year. Their push is unprecedented in the auto industry. The mass market Tesla wont be on sale for a couple months still, but they have already jump-started massive investments in EV technology around the world.

You seem very committed to PGMs which is fine if that's what you like. My only recommendation is, research long term outlooks on the stuff. What is it used for and where are those markets going. You will need to become a speculator. To me, I see auto makers scrambling to jump into the [profitable] mass market EV game, with many planning on bringing cars to market by the end of this decade, which is not that far away. I see an ever growing demand from consumers for EVs around the world. I see counties setting timelines for minimum EV market share. With PGMs, the risk is EV's becoming successful products globally and auto catalysts demand dropping as a result. Look at the market trends in China, their investments in EVs, and the projection on auto sales there. If anyone can make a cheap EV, its going to be China. And if anyone could use less smog, its China.

Buying physical is meant to be a long term store of value. I don't see a long term positive outlook for PGMs without something else to soak up the likely drop from auto catalysts.

 

I think we should right a book...LOL, your theory is a good one however you failed to mention what is already on the road that has the technology, though not a huge
Significance in compared to the new market, but like any new parts things ware out
and need to be replaced this goes for catalyst products as well and nothing lasts
Forever, replacement or secondary market parts will always be in demand for the
vehicles already on the road and some people keep those cars for years, so whats
The percentage for those people and the replacement market? i would have to say
Somewhere between 35% and 40%, especially people on the verge of retirement
or in close vicinity will keep there cars longer, allot of the baby boomers are there
now and cannot afford new vehicles, so i think we need to take a more 360 Degree
approach to the issue.

As far as buying physical absolutely, i wouldnt have it any other way ! if i hold in my hand i know that it is real and yes have done allot of research in all PM,S that
I invest in and that list seems to get longer each day, but predicting the future and
Knowing all the information is somewhat of an impossible text but always working on it !

 

Platinum and palladium come close, though.

If a car needs a replacement catalytic converter, it's because the old one wore out or got damaged -- and in either case, it'll be recycled, which will reclaim nearly all of the PMs it contains.

So, the scenario you describe doesn't really increase demand for PMs. In fact, all the old vehicles that do get replaced with newer technology will be contributing to supply of the catalysts.

 

back in the 80,s when i was a hot rod,er the big thing was to gut the "CAT" and
give the appearance of legal compliance even though it was void of anything
so I am not sure how many know how valuable they are until they go and buy
One, and whats lurking inside but i wouldnt agree that all of them get recycled
maybe 7-10 would think a realistic number so you still need to make up the difference, would see it kind of an aluminum can in a recycled sense and only
about 65% is recycled and everybody knows about that..LOL

 

https://catalyticcontrol.rockawayrecycling.com/catalytic-converter-scrap-prices/

Sure, some people will throw money away, but most won't. And the higher PM prices go, the more will get reclaimed. It's a lot easier than digging it out of the ground.

 

PGMs are aggressively recycled. Some people have even looked into sweeping the dirt off the road to collect the tiny particles that blow out of car's exhaust. As recycling becomes more prolific (mainly in the electronics industry), and the demand in auto capitalists drops, the need for freshly mined materials will fall off pretty quickly.

Recycling overall has taken on a whole new purpose in recent years as well. It goes beyond cost and environmental protection. Geopolitical instability and other threats to supply chains have made recycling whats already here more important. Responsible souring it also becoming a priority for large consumers like Apple. Recycle what you have and you don't have to worry about buying from conflict zones or countries that permit child labor.