Is it wrong to hope spot price keeps dropping??

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by WildWest, May 27, 2019.

  1. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I always like to do some selling at the big local show -- it's good PR to bring home a wad of cash from the show. :) This year's show is this weekend, though, and I'm thinking this isn't the time to sell off a lot of silver.
     
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  3. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    J.P. Morgan is always under suspicion as they seem to always make money off of their precious metals , whereas the ones always pushing the efforts on them are the bullion buyers newsletters, special reports of evil doing, bullion gurus who have no requirements nor federal reports to produce as does JPM. Outside of an apocalypse , where peoples silver will outlive the owners anyway, JPM wins over time as they play pro-PM with cash against Anti-PM people with cash, and JPM gets much of the cash as do casino owners. If you collect bullion because it's shiney, fine, just don't expect someday to sell and be wealthy unless you own shares in JPM, or another primary . It is better to own a piece of a casino than go there expecting to win big. Silver investors including bullion dealers use JPM type paper investing with options and contracts to protect their holdings and pricing, so they make money whether silver is going up /or down, just more if it is going up usually. Most here are either "UP" only or "Down " only , please.... Depending on their buying price.

    If you are an old time holder, no problem, enjoy it, just do not expect to get madly rich. If you have less than 100 oz, get a book on options/contracts and see if you can better utilize your assets. It is easy to go into a bullion shop and buy/sell bullion, but they make the most money , not you off of the deal. Bet on it. Its your money.IMO Jim
     
  4. imrich

    imrich Supporter! Supporter

    Well, you just never know. I still have large quantities of Silver coins that were purchased at the end of the "Hunt brothers" era.

    It probably would be some time before I "broke even" on those. LOL

    JMHO
     
  5. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    Just Google JP Morgan Silver Manipulation and it's surprising what comes up. Their idea is to have a mass amount of physical silver stored. That takes it off of the market, creates shortages and drives the price up. Miners can't compete due to the low price and the high cost of mining. That removes more potential silver. It's very involved so I suggest reading up on it. The claim is they have been working at this since 1965 when silver was no longer used in coins. Very interesting.
     
  6. myownprivy

    myownprivy Well-Known Member

    If inflation of around 2% continues annually that $20 an ounce silver won't look so hot in 10 years.
    But inflation should actually increase soon, so you should be rooting for even higher than $20 an ounce.
     
  7. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    The silver mining companies use pricing contracts to protect their silver when the silver prices is dropping as it has been recently. Some have contracts so lucrative that the contract values a mining company has its highest value asset , even over the est. silver content of its mine.

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022516/worlds-top-5-silver-mining-companies.asp
    ( Wheaton Precious Metals symbol is now WPM on the NYSE) has some contracts where it can obtain silver for 4.55 per ounce. Since they haven't exercised it yet , indicates they are not concerned nor pressured yet by available amounts. IMO. Jim
     
  8. HaleiwaHI

    HaleiwaHI Active Member

    An article from 2013 shows that this was not the case with JP Morgan:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-silver-lawsuit-idUSBRE92H10520130318
     
  9. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

  10. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    Yes, it seems an employee of JPM and his co-conspirators did try to manipulate the order board , but did not realize the speed such transactions can occur. They figured they would have time to cancel a large Fake sell order which would usually cause a sudden drop in bid prices, and then they would buy and profit from the lower price, but they couldn't stop it and JPM had to cover it and the participants plead guilty in court, and evidently someone is using that to imply it was (possibly ) done on JPM instructions or approval. To me it sounds like it won't fly in court, but who knows.

    Jim
     
  11. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Which is it? Are they cornering the market to run the price up, or are they dumping silver to keep the price low? And why would they bother with either, when they can instead continue to get rich raking in transaction fees from the rest of the world?
     
  12. R_rabbit

    R_rabbit Well-Known Member

    :)
    Imho, I do quite a bit of web surfing looking for great deals.

    You said you are interested in gold coins cheap. Check out this website I just found..

    Was looking for something else when I ran into this site.
    ( always check copyright 2019 on bottom of websites to make sure they are updated)
    Was looking for the 2007 First Lady set and found it here for $75.00

    http://www.chattanoogacoins.com/search.asp?keyword=Gold+dollar&sortby=0&catid=63
     
    WildWest likes this.
  13. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    The link seems to go to a 2016 half-ounce gold Walker for $796, about a 25% premium over spot. What are you seeing?
     
  14. R_rabbit

    R_rabbit Well-Known Member

    :)
    Sorry I’m still new to coin terminology. Do you mean 25% more than what one might usually pay?

    If you search in that site for silver or gold it will bring up listings of what they have.
     
  15. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    "Spot" means the spot price of gold. So, since gold is around $1280/oz today, and the coin contains half an ounce of gold, "spot price" for the coin would be $640.

    You can buy some gold coins near their spot value, but some have a "numismatic premium", meaning they have value beyond just the gold they contain. The 2016 Walker still does, although I think that premium is shrinking. Modern commemorative half-eagle ($5) gold mostly goes for very close to spot, with a few exceptions. The gold First Spouse coins (half-ounce) also don't hold much of a premium.

    I wouldn't mind owning the 2016 commemoratives, but I think if I'm patient I'll be able to get them at a lower price than we see today.
     
  16. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    Their still working on keeping the price down but probably later rather than sooner they want it to go. They are still buying at today's low prices.
     
  17. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Just because PMs are falling or stagnant doesn't mean price is being fixed. This is just one of those ideas that gets pushed on people by people with an interest in selling them PMs to make money. JP Morgan can make far more money elsewhere than they would trying to manipulate PMs.

    There's a reason why there's only big two major spikes in over half a century and one of which was the direct result of actual manipulation. It's time to reevaluate an investment if excuses have to be constantly made for why it isn't taking off.

    If someone really did want to invest in metals they should be using ETFs, the physical buy sell spreads are to high as well as shipping if necessary. Local shops only buy so much, and very few places buy after it has peaked and is on the way down
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2019
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  18. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member

    lot of nutbags in the PM community.
     
    Randy Abercrombie and baseball21 like this.
  19. Pickin and Grinin

    Pickin and Grinin Well-Known Member

    :DI laugh at ya'll. Especially when there is a good strike called to keep the talk going.
    Carry on!
     
  20. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    To the OP, buyers wishing to hold long term should always hope for cheap prices today but a long term healthy market. I love buying in doldrums, prices are low and premiums cheap, both being important to your long term value. Sellers hate it, and those who like "hot" investments as well, but truly long term holders with a good horizon in front of them, (or wishing to leave to kids), should enjoy these times.
     
  21. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I would agree history does not say it will go up, but it also does not say it won't. Both of these shocks had to due with price of crude, though somewhat delayed. Have a major war in the Persian Gulf and I think that would be another shock. The history of 30 years between shocks is not magical, we are not automatically 20 years away from another spike. Not saying it's close either, saying it has nothing to do with time, only worldwide market conditions.
     
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