Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by yakpoo, Jun 21, 2019.
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I actually didn't know it surpassed 90! Sheesh. Pretty sure it's never been that high before 2019.
What's the point of this chart? Really.
Except to be a tail wagging the dog.
particular chart was just to show that, yes, the GSR had been up to 100 in the (somewhat recent) past.
I'm still a skeptic about the predictive power of arbitrary charts like this. Or, for that matter, the significance of the GSR in the first place.
Extremes can help when trying to find a top or bottom in PM's 1980, 08,16,19 but not always 1991.
I think that was in response to my statement that the GSR never reached 90-100 before but I was proven wrong.
monthly candle above the 50. We have a ways to go up me thinks.
I know. My 'question' was rhetorical.
I remain very skeptical about the usefulness or even purpose of the GSR.
I would put more stock in a 'Silver to Economic History Ratio' (S&EHR)
Also - what he said:
"Bulls get fed, Bears get fed, but Pigs just get slaughtered"
Me, but at small amounts (less than 5 oz at a time once a month or so). I'm doing 'just in case' buying with hobby/fun money just in case it keeps going up because of US tarriff games, Brexit, Brazil, Merkel not running again in Germany, etc, etc.
I'm not using any household investment funds.
Because if it drops back to $14/oz....meh. It was just for fun.
Just purchase 400 oz silver at 18.67 , that will be my last purchase if silver price still going up .
I remember a few years ago when silver was $40. Wish I'd have sold more of mine then. I also remember in 1979/80 when silver hit $25 & gold around $800. What would that be inflation-adjusted? Horrible for those who bought near the top back then.
I do think that PM will continue to rise, as long as the Brexit craziness continues, seemingly an endless trade war between the USA & China, possibly another trade war between the USA & the EU, on & on.
I hoped to have a thread that discusses the "relative" value of gold and silver in dollar terms to identify potentially profitable imbalances in Gold and Silver in relationship to some constant (at any given point in time)...taking the political aspect out of the discussion altogether.
It's not, and never has been, my intention or desire to have a political discussion...so, please, let's not get into the events of the day and keep this a bullion discussion. Thanks!
But you/we can't without getting into the (geo)politics of the 'desires' underpinning the Market. It's a political construct not a natural science.
The GSR appears, to me, to be a self referential feedback loop that is completely backwards looking and not useful as a predictive tool as jeffb stated.
Since human behavior is somewhat similar across time especially in its modern incarnation (aka late 20th cent. to present), I'd be willing to relay on the predictive ability of History.
But, if Asimov was right, we need about 25,000 years of advanced human history to predict future human history - aka pyschohistory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)
If that were true, the GSR would be a constant.
The values of gold and silver are changing, relative to each other, the dollar, and anything else you care to pick.
It's convenient to pick one thing to use as a yardstick. Most pick the dollar, with the understanding that inflation is a real thing, so its value does change over time.
If you want to assume that gold's value is constant and use that as a yardstick, that's fine. It's just not quite as convenient as figuring in dollars, since that's how nearly everything else is denominated.
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