Is It Time For Silver?

Well, that's one of the classic diagnostics for a bubble...

 

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I visited the reddit page, its interesting and hard to follow. All I know is that you can't order silver right now if you wanted to and the market opened up $1.61 to $28.59. Wish the stack was bigger but let's see how this plays out.

 

Makes me think dealers are holding some back in case there is a moonshot. What would a day be without another completely evidence free conspiracy theory?

 

Wow! It looks like silver is up to $29 overseas. It was just $15/oz when this thread began 18 months ago. That's more than a 90% increase!

Now, we have the Reddit crowd trying to corner the silver market! Bon Temps Rouler!

 

Now the title of this thread makes sense finally!

 

I posted this in another thread but it probably belongs here.

To our valued customers,
APMEX Statement On Current Market Conditions:

In the last week, we have seen a dramatic shift in Silver demand from our customers. For example, the ratio of ounces sold per day was running about two times earlier in the week and closer to four times the average demand by the end of the week. Once markets closed on Friday, we saw demand hit as much as six times a typical business day and more than 12 times a normal weekend day. Combined with the extremely high demand levels, we are also seeing a surge in new customers. On Saturday alone, we added as many new customers as we usually add in a week.

Any Precious Metal dealer will take a long position in the futures market to protect against spot price exposure when the markets open. We do this because it is our goal not to take a speculative position on metal. The weekends are unique as we are not able to real-time hedge our position. We took an aggressive position this weekend, but clearly could not have predicted the volumes that were seen. We have partnerships around to world that allowed us to cover these long positions, but only to a point. Once we exceeded our comfort levels, we had little choice but to stop the sale of Silver on our website. This was a difficult decision to make and unprecedented in our history.

As we evaluate the markets, it is difficult to know where Silver's price and demand will go in the coming day and weeks. APMEX is highly capitalized and has more than $150 million in inventory to support demand. We have made strategic decisions to procure additional metal, locking up any metal we can find in the market place. We suspect premiums will rise and rise quickly, as we are seeing significant increases in our costs, when we can even locate the metal. It is also highly likely that we will need an additional day or two to fill orders based on current order counts. The one guarantee we can make to our customers is that you will only be sold metal that is on-site, or we have procured the metal with a firm commitment date from our partners. In markets like this, we feel this is the best approach a retailer can take, as no one can predict product availability.

We want to thank our customers for their patience and understanding during these turbulent times. APMEX prides itself on best in class service and delivering on promises to our customers.
Sincerely,
Ken Lewis
CEO, APMEX

 

There's one seller who was listing single rolls of silver quarters for $206.75 all afternoon and evening. Looks like the last one sold just under an hour ago. Earlier, that was lower than the going rate; by the end, it was below spot. After fees, he would certainly have done better selling them all to APMEX or JMB. I think he said he had 50 rolls; maybe he still has some, and will list them tomorrow.

 

It'll be interesting to see how low the GSR can go!

 

There's a thread for that.

 

The "GSR is a Horrible Idea" thread?

 

That's the one. It's a lot quieter these days.

 

Duplicate

 

Duplicate

 

I believe that thread was begun as a response to this one...(whatever). I was just noting that the GSR was near an extreme...like the RSI, or Bollinger Bands, or Keltner Channels sometimes are. The GSR looks like it was a GREAT IDEA! ...over the past 18 months, anyway.

 

Well, except that it started two years before this one.

Still looks like a random walk to me.

 

I would agree...if the start point is picked at random. However, if you look at price performance 12 months after the GSR breaks 90...you get a much different picture.

 

That's the thing about random walks, though -- put up a picture of one, and you can spot all kinds of patterns in it. They still don't do a thing to predict where it will go next.

 

That was the purpose of this thread...to see if the GSR can be used as an oversold/undersold indicator. Silver has doubled in price since this thread began. Not too shabby!

Dumb luck? ...perhaps, but as the GSR drops below 60, I'll begin shifting from Silver back to Gold.

 

It looks like they're gonna pop the Silver bubble before it gets too big...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...-to-8-year-high-11612254353?mod=mw_latestnews

 

Silver down $1.80 at $27.61 this morning.